Erick Blasco

very nice

They adjust the stats via some mathimatical formula. But it is adjusted. This isn't raw +/-. For that specific game he was probably the best. We don't know how many points he failed to prevent, we don't know if a missed shot led to a fast break basket, there are ways to look at this. Also, if a player shoots 12-50 and scores 30 points (of his team's 50), and his opponent goes 1-5 and scores 2 points, but his team scores 80, the player didn't really have a terrific game. And in the adjusted +/- Artest gets the blame. Kobe will be adjusted and made better for playing with a player who shot 1-10. I believe that's part of the premise of how this works. I'm not. This post was about me being cheap and knowing people would get riled up. I do want people to see that there is some truth behind these numbers though. If a player were sixth in assists per game, would he be an automatic MVP candidate? Or in rebounds per game? FG% Blocks? It's one metric. Nobody will make any MVP arguments off of one metric, except the people who do it strictly based on ppg. And the unit still dominates other benches, and some units with partial benches and some starters. That's not what I see for Boston's best unit. I see Rondo, Allen, Daniels, KG, and Rasheed, plus with a hefty standard error. If surprised why Rondo, Allen, Pierce, KG, Perkins isn't the top unit, remember, the Celtics lost a lot of games last season with a starting lineup that often looked old and washed up. For Miami, there's also a huge standard error on that lineup. Their best 8 or 9 lineups with standard errors less than 15 all involve Wade.

This isn't raw plus/minus, it's adjusted. The whole nature is that it adjusts for teammates and opponents. And when adjusted, Bryant will come out looking like a rose in the adjusted +/- metric. Could the fact that Kobe went 14-33 with only four assists inhibit the team from scoring an efficient amount of points? Why not. I created this title mostly for effect and it clearly worked (Nobody reads most of the links I post). Andersen's shot-blocking and baseline moving obviously had positive effects on the Nuggets. As with every stat, you don't rely strictly on one stat to paint a complete portrait of a player. If you want to rank players on turnover percentage go ahead. It'll be about as useful as this stat, rebounding rate, assist rate, usage, points per game, etc---AKA parts of a whole. There's a deviation error over 21 on that lineup. That's too high to paint an accurate picture. You need to wait until the sample size is larger. Even still, with how the Lakers' bench has played, are you that surprised?

It exists because there's something to be said about players who contribute to winning (positive point differential) and who contribute to losing. This statistic adjusts for opponents and teammates, In your piece about tonight, yeah that's what happens when your starting unit doesn't show up against the Bucks. The sample size for the season is small, it will adjust over time to a more normal value. Here are the 2009-2010 totals. http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?year=2009-2010&mode=summary&sortnumber=94&sortorder=DESC

A lot of these are spot on though. JJ has been very average to start the year and Bibby can still shoot. Heck he broke players down in the Nets gome over the weekend. The Celtics have often played better with Glen Davis on the court. Jackson has been awful to start the year on a very bad Bobcats team. Boozer has had some awful offensive games, and his defense always lets other teams back in the game. Mo and Hickson have been horrendous. Varejao has been one of the best role players in the league for awhile now. I don't see why Affallo being in the bottom 2 in Denver is a big deal. They have good individual players. Prince and Rip haven't played consistently hard since Kuestra took over. No surprises with Golden State or Houston. I haven't seen too much of Indiana, but hasn't Collison been a huge disappointment. The team is winning with defense, I'm not surprised guys like McRoberts are getting credit for that. Dunleavy is playing like he did two years ago. The Clippers result is weird, and I don't think Kobe has played particularly well this year for Kobe's standards, and Gasol is terrific. Keep in mind how much better the Heat play with one wing star on the bench, and you'll see a metric that sees Bosh and the Heat playing better when another star sits. No surprise with Dooling, the Bucks have been collectively awful this year. Who else is there best player. Maggette, Salmons, and Jennings don't deserve merit for how bad they've been. Minnesota isn't too much of a surprise. New Jersey actually is, and the Hornets aren't a surprise. Fields is the kind of role player that just makes offenses flow better. This kid is one of the smartest rookies in the game. Felton takes a lot of bad shots and misses a lot of layups, plus he's been below average defensively. I'm not surprised by the Knicks' rating. Durant has been voted OTR's most overrated player. The Orlando result is stunning. Philly is on point. I'm surprised J-Rich is last on the Suns and not Hedo. I don't see any big surprise with Portland. Landry has been terrible this season. He sometimes plays the three and he's too small, and he's not having the success he had last year just by playing hard. He's one player who's crumbling under an increased role. Plus, all Cousins does is foul. San Antonio and Toronto hold pretty consistent with my beliefs. I'm not surprised AJ is last, and Williams' overall numbers are still pretty good. Wall's a mistake-prone rookie. Again, like points per game, rebound rate, defensive rating, etc, adjusted +/- is just one other way of looking at the game and should not be taken as its own as a baseline evaluation of a player.

This Mavs team is much better than what Dallas has put together the last---decade. They have more talent to surround Dirk, and they play real defense. Dirk's more confident in the 4th quarter, and they have other weapons to turn to when he isn't playing well. I still have some doubts about him, but he had a good postseason last year and he's well-compensated with talented teammates. And that defense they play is terrific.

They caught Orlando at a good time, but the Mavs just won in Miami and in Orlando on back-to-back days. Not games, days. This teams just goes out and gets the job done.

I wouldn't give up Fields. This guy is one of the smartest rookies to come into the league in awhile and he's really versatile on offense, and is a pretty good defender for a rookie. I'm not including him unless it's part of a deal bigger than a role playing big man and a backup point who'd play limited minutes.

There's a tiny sample size, so deviation errors are substantial, but I think it's kind of funny that Kobe Bryant according to adjusted +/- is currently the 19th worst player in the league, a touch worse than John Wall, and a hair better than Keith Bogans. Al Jefferson is third, Ray Felton is fourth, while Darren Collison and T.J. Ford are one and two (should the Pacers play without a point guard) The Marco Belineli/Trevor Ariza duo has been awful for the Hornets, while Travis Outlaw's deviation error is low enough to see that he's genuinely been terrible. Good friend Ron Artest has been about as bad as Kobe. On the other side Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki are one and three in best adjusted +/-. Who's second...Chris Bosh? Pau Gasol, Landry Fields, and LaMarcus Aldridge have some great numbers, as do a pair of superstar point guards, Chris Paul and Keyon Dooling. Of players on the Heat, Dwyane Wade has a bad, but not terrible adjusted +/-, while Carlos Arroyo's numbers truly are terrible. Have a look! And don't take things too seriously. Sample size is still small. http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?year=2010-2011&mode=summary&sortnumber=94&sortorder=ASC

I'm going with Gasol. He's exceptional on the block, he's a superior rebounder, especially on the offensive end, he has the versatility to face and go, he's a good shooter (clearly not in Dirk's class, but he's still good), and he's a much better defender than Dirk. He's also the best interior passer in the game. Also, why aren't Manu Ginobili or Paul Pierce candidates? I'd take each of them over Bosh, Stoudemire, Duncan, and Rondo.

http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2010/12/18/1884206/dallas-mavericks-breakdown-dallas-d-may-lead-to-delightful-season

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2010/12/20/1888818/atlanta-hawks-breakdown-hawks-are-stuck-in-isolation

I can't believe people STILL underrate Ginobili. There's not a more underrated superstar in this game. I mean Monta Ellis can put up points pretty quickly, but he's an undersized, defenseless, inefficient player. It's not even like Ginoblii's just a system player either, he breaks people down off isolations, he's a wonderful playmaker, his patented move is a step back three going to his wrong foot---let that sink in, a step-back three going right, and he sinks it like water. Plus, he makes defensive plays that win games. What does Monta Ellis know about defense. Ray Allen needs more love too. If he's going to finish his layups like he's doing this season, he's an extremely versatile player who can catch-and-shoot, create his own shot off the bounce, finish at the rim, and play top-notch defense. Kevin Martin is as soft as they come, doesn't know anything about shot selection, and is one of the worst defensive wings in the league. And Brandon Roy is nothing now that he has no meniscus.

The Lakers have a track record of three Finals appearances and two titles. They've earned themselves the benefit of the doubt by proving they could beat great teams the past two seasons. That being said, neither the Lakers nor the Heat are playing on Dallas' level right now. They won this game on the road no less. They've beaten Boston. They've won in Oklahoma City, in San Antonio, and in Utah. They've now swept the Heat. They're a fluky 20-point collapse against the Bucks away from a 16-game winning streak. Their first Heat win came on the second day of a back-to-back after a win in San Antonio. They have a game in Orlando tomorrow, which will be very impressive if they pull off that win. The Lakers will be fine down the road, Miami probably will be too. San Antonio is playing pretty well, but as of right now, and right now only, it's the Mavs followed closely by the Celtics---and then everybody else.

I want to see the Mavs play the Lakers on Christmas day...

Dirk has been totally absent in this 4th quarter.

The Heat have taken 52 shots and 20 of them are threes. They have 5 FT attempts. This Dallas defense is terrific. THIS is a team that can win a championship if its defense keeps playing this well.

I mentioned on the podcast that Dallas was playing the best basketball in the game. Their start tonight only solidifies that. Nobody is playing like Dallas. Their defense is suffocating.

Adding to the Durant discussion...he had an AWFUL playoff series considering how he's the the supposedly fourth best player in the league, and he still has trouble against defenders who really bump and bang him. He had four games against the Lakers where he shot .357% or worse, including a magnificent 5-23 at home in an elimination game. That's not good enough for a guy who is only an average passer. Can we see him do something in the playoffs before anointing him? Of the other players, Tyreke Evans is a good choice, nobody really thinks Rashard Lewis is a max player (though you can argue the spacing he's allowed Orlando's offense has been max-worthy for what they try to do), and Chris Bosh's public opinion has mercifully dropped thanks to Miami's mediocre start so he's no longer overrated,

http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/12/17/1882868/portland-trail-blazers-breakdown-blazers-future-has-eroded-with-roys

It looks like Roy's athleticism has soured, along with his reputation. Not enough people have called out Roy for his insecurities, his constant me-centric remarks, and his blasting of Andre Miller the past two seasons. Now Roy's knees are shot, as are Portland's future hopes. The Blazers are a franchise that is now stuck in first round limbo...

Whoa, Hornets are dominating AND Paul isn't even playing that well.

A piece on the final play... http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/12/17/manu-ginobilis-walkoff-charge/ You know what I love that apparently nobody saw. There's an obvious Nuggets offensive foul on 'Melo's drive...on Al Harrington, who's simply holding on to Antonio McDyess preventing him from drawing the charge!

I had to fix your comment for veracity.

Just like Pierce yesterday, Ginobili gets it done on offense...AND on defense!