Erick Blasco

http://www.basketbal...?articleid=1177

[quote THE SUPERSTAR Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dwyane Wade mia U 28.5 20.0 .761 .562 .352 7.8 3.20 5.1 Most years, Wade--an All-NBA First Team selection each of the last two seasons still in the prime of his career--would be the prize of free agency. Only the presence of LeBron James can relegate Wade to the role of overqualified consolation prize. There's some risk to a six-year contract for Wade, especially given his history of injuries, but even at the max he'll be underpaid on the front end of his deal. THE VETERAN WHO MAY AGE POORLY Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Joe Johnson atl U 29.0 8.2 .554 .538 .264 7.2 2.08 1.6 I want to make this clear: My belief that Johnson's contract will ultimately come to be regarded is not a knock on Johnson the person or even necessarily Johnson the player. It's simply that the performance of similar players as they entered their 30s tells a cautionary story. John Hollinger found the same thing using his similarity system. If you don't trust our advanced metrics, consider minutes per game. Johnson's 10 best comparables averaged 35.2 minutes in what will be his 2010-11 season, 31.9 minutes the next and just 26.9 minutes a night during what will be his 2012-13 season. By that point--midway through Johnson's new contract--just three of those 10 players were averaging at least 35 minutes. THE VETERAN STARTERS Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Salmons mil U 30.6 4.2 .488 .553 .200 5.4 0.57 2.5 Mike Miller was U 30.4 3.7 .515 .623 .148 10.8 1.29 1.6 As with Johnson, I'm on the record thinking Salmons' contract was too long and too lucrative. He has never in his career rated as better than average on a per-minute basis over the course of a full season. The Bucks, who once seemed to be pointing toward cap space in the summer of 2011, now seem locked into this group plus whatever they can fetch for Michael Redd's expiring contract. While Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut have upside, is this group good enough to contend in the East? And with Jennings on the rise, why add so many veteran players? Miller is a more interesting case. When he joined the Timberwolves in 2008, he apparently decided he no longer wanted to shoot, and his usage rate plummeted from 19.8 percent of his team's plays to below 15 percent the last two seasons. The upside is Miller remains extraordinarily efficient as a scorer and a fine playmaker. Miller's versatile offensive skill set should age reasonably well. For three or four years at the mid-level exception, he's a solid pickup. THE YOUNG SHOOTERS Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dorell Wright mia U 24.6 3.6 .534 .567 .159 9.2 0.32 3.6 J.J. Redick orl R 26.0 4.1 .526 .606 .184 4.8 0.96 1.0 Anthony Morrow gsw R 24.8 3.3 .495 .597 .178 7.2 0.16 2.1 In his sixth pro season, at the age of 24, Wright "got it" and became a quality reserve for the Heat, shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc while offering a better-rounded game than most shooting specialists. The potential had always been there for Wright, so there's the chance that last year was only the beginning for him. Wright has the advantage among younger free agents of being unrestricted because of his experience in the league. Another team would be wise to try to steal him away while the Heat is sorting out the max players. Though Redick's stats had been terrible before 2009-10, it was evident during the 2009 postseason that his work behind the scenes was paying off. Redick has made himself into a positive at the defensive end of the floor and a capable ballhandler, and when he got regular minutes last season his shots started falling. I'm a little more concerned that last year might have been Redick's high-water mark, but it's a pretty nice mark. Morrow's upside is limited by the fact that he is so strictly a shooting specialist. He has at least shown the ability to sustain a reasonably high usage rate for a spot-up player, but Morrow is not going to be a contributor defensively or as a playmaker. Still, guys who shoot 45 percent from three-point range are always valuable. http://www.basketbal...?articleid=1177

He'll install some defensive principals and the Clippers should play hard for him. He's not an offensive mastermind but maybe he's learned a few things.= since the Bulls let him go. Plus he'll have minimal expectations unlike in Chicago where the fans and media unfairly ripped him apart. Not a bad hire.

Most of NBA players' bad habits are the same bad habits they've had since they were rookies. It isn't that easy for Stephenson to break habits and suddenly realize how to come off a screen, or when to cut, or how to simply move when the ball isn't in his hands. It's a complete mentality shift for somebody who only knows what it's like to be "The Man." Why work without the ball when you can bring the ball up yourself, clear out, and beat your man off the dribble (anybody with confidence assumes that it's a given that you can break your defender off the dribble)? Now he has to make trigger passes that trigger the offense? Why would he trigger anything other than breaking his man off the dribble? You know who else had world class coaches and had it all talent wise and never had a mentor? Gerald Green. Ask him if its easy to learn how to move without the ball. Is it harsh that I think so lowly of this kid? Perhaps, but his career has been marked by red flags. At least as a two-guard he may be able to get by with being selfish if he can score. The NBA isn't the place for epiphanies about how to run an offense though.

Wasn't Kobe incredibly fundamentally sound and mentally mature for a youngster, especially because of his father? Lance's father curses out coaches and visits boosters. Kobe never had the immaturity of Stephenson, not until he won a pair of rings at least.

It's not just that he's a scoring point. He doesn't know how to run an offense. He just knows how to score. Everything I read about this guy points him out to be egotistical, selfish, and lacking court awareness. You can't have a guy like that as your point guard and expect your offense to have any kind of success, especially considering that he's a rookie. If you want Stephenson to play the two guard, knock yourself out. Don't put him at the point and expect it to work out.

When David Khan stops making it so, so easy.

http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/07/06/gordon-hayward-working-off-the-ball/#more-3253

I think that's where Gay's best role is. He'd be a terrific 6th man who you just ask to jump over people and score, and you don't have to worry as much about team offense.

He can't play defense so you're perfectly right. I think Lee is too athletic to play for the Wolves though. I think it's a mandate that none of their frontcourt players are able to jump.

A guy with as limited an understanding of the game as Stephenson is going to run the point? http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/high_school/2009/06/21/2009-06-21_end_zone_who_wants_lance.html

His ceiling right now is to be a decent 2nd option on a good team, a team that might be able to win one playoff series. He can jump out of the gym and he uses that to score in transition and to simply drive and pull up over people. He's a poor passer though, isn't great at drawing contact at the rim, is an iffy three-point shooter, is an average defender, and doesn't have much court vision. He has some talent, I know that and I respect that. But when you say tier one...when I think of tier one wings I think of LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Pierce, Ginobili, Roy, and Melo...seven guys who dominate the paint, seven terrific passers, and except for Melo, six guys with a tremendous feel for the game who are also excellent defenders. Then you put that next to...Rudy Gay? Even going down the line, you have Joe Johnson, O.J. Mayo, Jason Richardson, Danny Granger, Caron Butler... What exactly does Gay do that makes him stand out more than other wings? Yeah he can score 20 points but so can John Salmons (he put up 19.9 for the Bucks). How is he scoring his points, and what else is he doing that wins games?

It's been what, four years now? What exactly has Gay shown to say that he's going to be a tier one guy? I don't even know if he's a second or third option guy on a really good team. Right now he's a third option and that couldn't even get the Grizzlies to the playoffs.

The Lakers don't have the cap room or the MLE to sign Miller now that Blake is on board.

All I'm trying to do is further discredit Stephen A. His articles shouldn't be referenced to as a source.

Opponent counterpart stats are fair game. I looked at Fish's dMult numbers and they were pretty bad for last season. And yeah Utah's fans would burn the streets of Salt Lake once Fisher left LA... I wish 82games had their playoff clutch stats up for Fisher.

But...but...but...Stephen A Smith said that LeBron was going to be a Knick!

I wouldn't pay Lowry more than 3.5 million. Felton could do better waiting to see who the loser of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh sweepstakes is and getting that team to give him a big contract.

The one type of player Fisher can defend well is a sturdy screen/roll player. I think Fisher defends Deron Williams better than any other point guard in the league. With the way the rest of the Lakers defend screens (have you seen Farmar and Brown defending D-Will) Utah might go back to calling its own number against the Lakers. It's only one team and one example but Fisher isn't completely useless on defense. Also, of course Fish would cost $10 million with the luxury tax with the offer he's presenting, the Lakers could have both and be a better team for it. Have Fish start, have Fish close, and give Blake most of the minutes in the middle. I wouldn't be surprised if each side bargains a little and Fish ends up with a two-year $4 million per year contract. The Lakers don't want to see Fish leave, and I don't think Fish wants to leave. One other thing that may be at play. Fish's options to leave are limited because I believe his daughter may still need treatments (not 100% sure though).

There is a difference between "clutch" and fourth quarter of Game 4 of the NBA Finals "clutch." He shot 45%/36%/82% for the postseason, that's not bad. You also miss out on intangible things like, A) a player to reel in Kobe. B) a player who leads by example C) a player who won't lock in the playoffs on the road (Who on the Lakers really played aggressively in Game's 3,4,and 5 besides Fisher? Kobe for two games, and...) Now of course Blake is an upgrade, but nobody knows how Blake will respond to a situation like Game 3 in Boston because the closest equivalence he's had is the NCAA title game. He's not that good of a defender, and he still has to earn Kobe's trust.

Not to temper your enthusiasm, but lets hold off using the word great for teams that will contend for championships.

Miller can actually dribble. And he knows how to move without the ball which is good for the triangle. I doubt Novak would pick up on the ins and outs of the Lakers offense in his first season. Plus, Miller's a much better defender, and can create some offense off the dribble. I don't prefer Miller for the Lakers over a point guard, but Novak wouldn't get any important minutes for the Lakers. He wouldn't beat out Walton for the fourth wing.

Don't forget that Pierce is a very, very good defensive player in his own right. You'd be crazy to be a team wanting to win a ring and not pick up Pierce for the MLE. And Pierce bleeds Celtics green, so the chance of him resigning with the Celtics is 98%. If he's going to fill his remaining 2%, he's going to be trying to win rings with a team that should win a title, not an up-and-coming project like the Clippers. Pierce was a huge Lakers fan growing up. He talks about it all the time. If he ever left the Celtics, I'd be shocked if he played anywhere but the Lakers. Playing for the Clippers when you've come from Boston and were a Lakers fan growing up is like bringing your sister to the prom.

Calderon and Jack have value, especially Jack cause he's good and cheap. Turkoglu is going to be making Raptors fans upset for a long time.

Not for a short while though. Looking at their contracts for the year after next, the Bucks will have 46 million committed to nine players, plus whatever rookie scale contract Larry Sanders gets (2-4 million or something). Throw in next year's first round pick and the Bucks will probably have 12 players under contract, and be right at the cap. They're in good shape because Carlos Delfino has a cheap team option, while Jennings is still in a rookie contract. Redd's gigantic contract will come off the cap (or the Bucks could trade him for a talented, expensive contract next year because they won't be able to sign an expensive free agent next offseason. Also, the only player they'll have to extend is Mbah a Moute who won't be too expensive to resign. If the CBA expires and they do away with the mid-level exception like the league has talked about doing, then the Bucks will be stuck hoping that those 12 players will be good enough to compete two years from now. Things will start to get bad in 2012-2013 because right now, Gooden, Maggette, Bogut, Jennings, and Salmons will cost the Bucks 40 million, plus Sanders, plus their next two draft picks. If the mid-level exception is gone and the cap goes to about 60 million, they'll need to have five more players on their roster for about 10 million dollars combined. Plus, Maggette, Salmons, and Gooden will be older, in their early-to-mid 30's. Milwaukee's gambling that they can win in the short term with the contracts they're giving out.