Inside the Lakers' Mini-Slump

[Erick Blasco]

 

 

The biggest culprit, as you might guess, is the Lakers' offense. That seems strange to say about a unit that features Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol and is coached by Phil Jackson, but the bump we expected the Lakers would see in their Offensive Rating when Gasol got healthy simply has never come. Over the course of the season, L.A. is 11th in the league in per-possession scoring. Over the last 10 games, the Lakers have been worse than that. In fact, their 107.6 Offensive Rating in that span is worse than league average.

 

Besides the bottom-line results, a good way to measure how well the Lakers' offense is functioning is the team's rate of assisted field goals. When the triangle is really flowing, the Lakers rack up the assists. They get stagnant when the ball stops and players try to go one-on-one. In 2007-08, the arrival of Pau Gasol midseason helped the Lakers assist on 61.7 percent of their field goals, fifth in the NBA. They slipped to eighth at 57.7 percent a year ago. This season? The Lakers are 19th in assist rate at 54.8 percent, putting them below average. And over the last 10 games, that number has sunk further to 52.2 percent, which is better than merely four teams have done over the course of the season.

 

To me, the Lakers' passing and execution is a better way to explain why their offense has underachieved than the distribution of their possessions. Take a look at how usage rates compare for the team's starters and sixth man Lamar Odom the last two seasons, with Ron Artest's 2009-10 performance compared to Trevor Ariza in 2008-09:

 

http://www.sonicscentral.com/images/lakers_usage_100312.jpg Despite concerns I raised as loudly as anyone, Artest has fit into the same relatively small role on offense played by Ariza a year ago, and Gasol got just as few looks on offense in 2008-09. In fact, the percentage of possessions used by Bryant, Gasol, Andrew Bynum and the starting small forward are virtually identical this year and last. The only changes are minor drop-offs in the usage rates of Odom and Derek Fisher, with most of those possessions apparently going to Shannon Brown. So whether this distribution of possessions is ideal or not, it certainly has a proven track record of success.

 

The bigger problem for the Lakers has been that only one of their top six players has been as efficient with those possessions as they were a year ago (again comparing Ariza to Artest). Their True Shooting Percentages in that span:

 

Player 08-09 09-10 Diff

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Fisher .546 .500 -.046

Bryant .561 .546 -.015

Ariza .544

Artest .518 -.026

Gasol .617 .572 -.045

Bynum .598 .604 +.006

Odom .542 .532 -.010 There are a variety of reasons for these declines. Bryant and Gasol have battled injuries, Fisher is aging rapidly and Artest simply has never been particularly efficient as a scorer. Still, the across-the-board nature of the drops leads me to believe that part of the explanation lies in the fact that the Lakers' offense isn't generating the same kind of quality looks with its passing as a year ago.

 

How do the Lakers fix that? The possible return of Luke Walton, who has been out since mid-February with a pinched nerve in his back but hopes to get back for the playoffs, could help. Walton is arguably the Lakers' best passer, and the team's Offensive Rating has been better in the 24 games he has been able to play this season. More than that, though, Phil Jackson may simply need to get his team to recommit to the fundamentals of the triangle.

 

 

 

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=988

 

 

 

[Poe]

Basically, the players need to become less me-oriented and more team-oriented if LA is to win another championship.