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Basketball Prospectus' Awards Rankings


Erick Blasco
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Basketballprospectus.com listed its End-of-season awards.

 

There's already a thread for posting you own votes (I'll post my own votes there), but this thread could be used to talk about BP's picks, its methodology, etc. I'm glad, for example, that they value Manu Ginobili and Josh Smith for the seasons they had---seasons that many people ignore. They also give Brandon Jennings the ROY award, though I think his inability to score efficiently makes him a far worse scorer than Tyreke Evans.

 

Anyway, here's a short sample, and then the link.

 

 

 

Here is my complete imaginary awards ballot for the 2009-10 season, compiled using a combination of observation and statistics--primarily my own WARP metric and net and adjusted plus-minus data from BasketballValue.com.

 

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

 

I'm not even going to bother discussing the decision at the top of the ballot. LeBron James deserves to be a unanimous selection, and that's that. By sitting out the last three games, James did cost himself any chance at surpassing last year's total of 26.9 WARP, which was fifth in modern NBA history. James currently is sitting on 25.4 WARP this season.

 

The more interesting race is for second place. I think you could justify placing Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade in any order. I went with Howard, my Defensive Player of the Year, in second because of his importance to the league's best defense and its second-best offense. Wade has used possessions at the league's highest rate (35.1 percent), and while his efficiency is down from a year ago, it's still incredible given how much he does. Durant, meanwhile, has become the league's best scorer and made dramatic strides at the defensive end as well.

 

Kobe Bryant's 2009-10 was down from his recent standard, in part because of his injured finger and in part because of his stubborn refusal to concede anything to his physical limitation. Bryant's unwillingness to defer to Pau Gasol more was a factor in the Lakers' major offensive slide. Yet Bryant was as good as ever defensively, and his net plus-minus (the Lakers were +12.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor) put him fourth in the league according to BasketballValue.com, behind three of the four players ahead of him on this ballot (Howard is the exception, but he has the league's best adjusted plus-minus). 1. LeBron James, Cleveland

2. Dwight Howard, Orlando

3. Dwyane Wade, Miami

4. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City

5. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers

 

ALL-NBA TEAMS

 

First Team

G - Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers

G - Dwyane Wade, Miami

F - Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City

F - LeBron James, Cleveland

C - Dwight Howard, Orlando

 

Second Team

G - Steve Nash, Phoenix

G - Deron Williams, Utah

F - Chris Bosh, Toronto

F - Josh Smith, Atlanta

C - Tim Duncan, San Antonio

 

Williams was the other guy who got serious consideration for the last spot on the First Team and my MVP ballot. He's been playing at an incredible level this season. WARP puts Nash a bit ahead of Williams for the title of the league's best point guard, but Williams' superior defense (he was one of the last cuts at PG for my All-Defensive Team honorable mentions) earns him that nod.

 

It still amazes me that Smith did not make the All-Star team. He is currently sixth in the league in WARP, and his total will probably end up the second best in the WARP era for players who did not make the All-Star team (Andre Miller, with 16.8 WARP in 2001-02, is the leader in that dubious category). Smith's net plus-minus is 16th in the league, and he's playing for a 50-plus-win team. I'm not sure I understand the argument against him.

 

 

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1073

 

 

 

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