Chances of each player returning

[Poe]

Beat writer Michael Wallace posted an article on his believed percentages on the chances of each player returning:

 

Playing The Percentages

 

Rafer Alston - 0%

Joel Anthony - 90%

Carlos Arroyo - 50%

Michael Beasley - 55%

Mario Chalmers - 40%

Daequan Cook - 18%

Yakhouba Diawara - 2%

Kenny Hasbrouck - 10%

Udonis Haslem - 67%

James Jones - 20%

Jamaal Magloire - 63%

Jermaine O'Neal - 5%

Shavlik Randolph - 58%

Quentin Richardson - 15%

Dwyane Wade - 99.3% (lol, he's more confident than most of us cocky fans)

Dorell Wright - 20%

 

Coach Erick Spoelstra - 89%

 

Read his descriptions if you want: http://blogs.herald.com/miami_heat/2010/04/playing-the-percentages.html

 

 

 

Anyway, I actually don't completely agree with most of them. Here are my personal percentages:

Rafer Alston - 0%: No explanation needed.

 

Joel Anthony - 90%: I agree with this one. His free agency is restricted and I don't expect too many teams to throw much money at him.

 

Carlos Arroyo - 20%: Was a fill-in player from the beginning, just like Jamario Moon last year. I doubt Arison and Riley are setting the amount of importance on this guy to be too high, since they will be looking for more depth at PG, and Chalmers is likely to remain as a back up. He will be kept if he's cheap enough and willing to be used as a third stringer.

 

Michael Beasley - 75%: Trading Beasley is an option, of course, but a guy with his talent on a rookie contract is something you don't want to give up unless you absolutely know what you will be getting back. The Heat have spent a good deal of time and effort shaping him into the both-ends player they want him to become. Though he's had some growing pains in his second year, I do believe he's likely to stay as he gives more security for the Heat's future. 5 or so years down the road, when Wade gets older, Beasley will be ready to take over.

 

Daequan Cook - 33%: As horribly as he's done this year, he is still under contract. He'd have to be a part of a big time package deal, because I doubt too many teams would risk taking him, even if he was a three point shooting champ.

 

Mario Chalmers - 80%: He's had his struggles, but the fact of the matter is that he's worth less than a million in his team option. Unless he's part of a package deal, he has a high chance of staying as a back up.

 

Yakhouba Diawara - ?%: He's a player that can fill out the bench for cheap. Whether he stays or not, I have no idea.

 

Kenny Hasbrouck - ?%: I only know the general idea of his abilities (a combo guard with some athleticism and three-point shooting ability, kind of like Chalmers come to think of it) and not a clue how talented he really is. It's possible that he could come back as a cheap third stringer.

 

Udonis Haslem - 50%: Pat Riley loves him and will do what he can to bring him back. Unfortunately, it seems to me like after the Heat send a max at a player or two, there may not be a whole lot of room left for him, both money wise and playing time if the depth at forward becomes too great. At this point in his career, I doubt he'll be giving a discount to anybody, even if his "heart" is in Miami.

 

James Jones - 10%: He's got too much money, and it looks to me like he'll either be bought out or packed in some kind of trade. He hasn't produced much in the past two years, and I doubt he'll show for much next year if kept. There's a very small chance of Riley doing nothing about him.

 

Jamaal Magloire - 50%: Wallace makes a good point about lack of centers in free agency. That also means the same thing for other teams as well. Another team may throw a good contract at him if they believe he's still fit for a large role, or they may see the fact that he's been a third stringer behind Joel Anthony.

 

Jermaine O'Neal - 0.01%: He was garbage in the playoffs. I don't see him coming back, and I seriously hope he doesn't come back. Even as a back up for vet minimum. Maybe I'm just saying this out of anger, so tell me if I'm going too far.

 

Shavlik Randolph - 35%: He would come back as a filler, and only for that reason alone.

 

Quentin Richardson - 75%: Like Haslem, Riley loves this guy. Maybe not quite as much, but he's a tough guy, and Riley loves tough guys. Also remember that he is Wade's best bud. The only reason for him not to come back is if he's too expensive, though I doubt too many teams will throw much money at him seeing how he was tossed around from team to team last summer. The Heat was the only team was actually looking to make use of his playing ability, instead of just his expiring contract.

 

Dwyane Wade - 90%: We're all confident Wade will return, but don't get ahead of ourselves. Though the chances are high, it's not 99.3%. There is always the chance that either Riley is unable to bring in the right talent, or that Wade feels he has a better future with another team like the Bulls or Knicks, and the chances of those two don't combine to .7%. I do believe he's staying, but I'm still staying realistic.

 

Dorell Wright - 50%: I would put the percentages lower if it weren't for his history in Miami. The Heat drafted him as a project player and spent 6 years developing him with high hopes, though injuries held him back. I doubt they will let all that go to waste too easily. He's been an excellent practice player, much like JO while he was in Portland, and with his first full year without an injury, he is finally beginning to tap into his potential. On Wright's end, he may explore other options, and the only reason he won't come back is because he could prove to be too expensive in the end.

Edited April 27, 2010 by Poe

[Flash]

Rafer Alston - 0%: Do I need to explain why?

 

Joel Anthony - 90%: He's a restricted FA and I'm not sure what the market will be for him. One more year like this one and he could be looking at a nice pay day.

 

Carlos Arroyo - 60%: He was our best PG all year and doesn't have a huge ego where coming off the bench would be an issue for him.

 

Michael Beasley - 80%: I'm confident Beas will be back. I'd only deal him in a move for a PG or a C. Al Jefferson would be super.

 

Mario Chalmers - 45%: I just don't see it. He's stuck between positions and is too inconsistent.

 

Daequan Cook - 30%: He's been ruined by our horrid player development but he's still under contract. I think he gets moved if we make a trade though.

 

Yakhouba Diawara - 0%: He won't be back.

 

Kenny Hasbrouck - 5%: Thought he would get some minutes. He's gonna have to be great this summer.

 

Udonis Haslem - 85%: He's the captain and the heart and soul of this team. No way Riles leaves his boy out to dry this summer.

 

James Jones - 0%: See ya.

 

Jamaal Magloire - 60%: Cheap help at the C spot.

 

Jermaine O'Neal - 0%: Good riddance you bum.

 

Shavlik Randolph - 0%: Just don't see him coming back.

 

Quentin Richardson - 60%: What worries me is that someone will overpay for him and we won't be able to match that offer. I desperately want him to stay though.

 

Dwyane Wade - 90%: I just don't see him leaving if Riley does what he should do.

 

Dorell Wright - 50%: Its 50/50 here. He could get grossly overpayed to go play in a fast pace system like the Knicks but hopefully we can get something done with him.

 

Coach Erick Spoelstra - 60%: I think it should be 0%, but then again, I've thought it should be that way all season. Don't think he's right for this job and I'll be praying that Riles steps in or gets us Byron Scott.

[Newman]

I can only see these players returning: Dorell Wright, Q-Rich, D-Wade, Joel Anthony, Haslem, Chalmers (he's pretty dam cheap), Beasley (but he will be shopped around), Daequan Cook (same as Beasley), Arroyo. The first 2 returns only if D-Wade returns.

[Check my Stats]

Why would you want any of those players back anyways, most of them, save a few, are 12th men at most on a legitimate contending team.

[Flash]

Why would you want any of those players back anyways, most of them, save a few, are 12th men at most on a legitimate contending team.

 

Dorell and Q had excellent seasons and Q played extremely well in the playoffs. Joel Anthony is one of the most productive big men in the minutes he plays. If he got the same minutes as say, Birdman, you wouldn't be saying that about him. Birdman gets hype because he's some crazy, tatted-up white guy who can dunk. Joel does the same things as him but doesn't play as many minutes.

 

UD is def. not a 12th man lol. Dude started on a title winning team. Every contender needs a guy like Udonis IMO.

[Nitro]

My only comment...

 

Jermaine O'Neal - 0.01%: He was garbage in the playoffs. I don't see him coming back, and I seriously hope he doesn't come back. Even as a back up for vet minimum. Maybe I'm just saying this out of anger, so tell me if I'm going too far.

 

Going too far IMO. O'Neal is not a 2nd or even 3rd option player offensively anymore like he has been used the last 2 years, but the guy still has game left. He is still a solid scorer, solid rebounder and still a very good defensive player. It is hard to find good big men in this league, and if they can get him cheap I think it'd be a mistake to not keep him (assuming they get one of the key FA big men this summer to put alongside Wade).