Erick Blasco's NBA Finals Preview

[Erick Blasco]

For the Los Angeles Lakers, this year’s Finals is an opportunity for vindication after being so rudely disposed of by the Boston Celtics in 2008. For the Celtics, this Finals is a chance at recapturing a championship they felt was denied them last season by Kevin Garnett’s leg injury.

 

For each team, it’s a rematch, with the echoes of that 2008 series still reverberating today. Only this time, the combatants square off as champions. There’s no need to question whether each team is good enough to win a ring. Each has demonstrated they have championship talent, and championship will, as evidenced by the jewelry adorned the past two seasons. Instead, we can focus on the fact that two talented, proud teams are squaring off with basketball immortality on the line.

 

Here’s how it will all shake out.

The Frontcourt

 

Pau Gasol wasn’t the same player in 2008 that he is today. In the 2008 Finals, Pau Gasol was bullied by Kendrick Perkins into several missed layups and rebounds. However, Gasol is much more comfortable against physicality now, and should hold his own better in close and on the boards.

 

Whereas Perkins is still strong enough to force Gasol away from the low post area, Gasol has a sizeable quickness advantage when he faces Perkins up. Plus, Gasol should be agile enough to spin off of Perkins with his back to the basket, and is much longer than Perkins so as not to be bothered when launching his various finesse hooks.

 

Kevin Garnett would normally have the length and fluidity to defend Gasol better, but he doesn’t move the way he once was. Glen Davis has the quickness, but not the size to deal with Gasol.

 

Therefore, it’s expected that Rasheed Wallace gets the bulk of the minutes matched up with the Ga-soul of the Lakers’ frontcourt. Wallace has defensive range, moves well, has good length, and innumerable tricks to prevent Gasol from having his way on the block.

 

Those skills will likewise serve ‘Sheed well during the times he’s asked to guard Andrew Bynum, though he won’t have the foot speed to match Lamar Odom.

 

The Celtics will likely counter Odom with Garnett ,hoping KG will be able to hang with Odom’s slashes to the basket, and Davis, who has the speed to hang with Odom and the strength to bump him off the course of his driving and cutting lanes, though he’ll do little to alter Odom’s shot attempts as they happen.

 

Andrew Bynum is a wild card. If he’s healthy, he has the length to score over any of the Celtics’ defenders, but his individual and especially his help defense leaves much to be desired. Expect much more Odom than Bynum.

 

When Boston has the ball, Perkins mostly serves as a moving screen-setter, who won’t score or attempt more than one post shot or two a game. However, he must be boxed out on the boards, something the Lakers’ bigs aren’t always wont to doing.

 

Kevin Garnett is simply a long-range two-point jump shooter, and Odom and Gasol should be able to close out to him with success.

 

Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis can also shoot from long-range, with Davis having the unique ability to drive to the cup with speed and force, and Wallace having three-point range. Wallace will severely test the closeouts of Odom and Gasol, forcing them to be on point.

 

Boston sets multiple off-ball screens for their guards, putting a lot of pressure on opposing bigs to make snap decisions when Paul Pierce and especially Ray Allen curl for jumpers. Los Angeles’ screen-defenders must be able to make good decisions should Allen curl open. Also, the weak side defender must be ready to help as soon as he recognizes what is going on. If anything, Allen should be forced to complete the curl and finish over traffic at the basket.

The Backcourt

 

In 2008, the Celtics defended Kobe Bryant with James Posey, Tony Allen, a quicker Paul Pierce, and a quicker Ray Allen. Posey’s shadow now plays in New Orleans, Tony Allen has been battling a bum ankle, and Pierce and Ray Allen are each a step slower. The Celtics will overload the strong side of the court to force Kobe into the long arm of a big defender, but the Celtics might not have the defensive first step to keep Kobe funneled while preventing him from crossing over away from the help.

 

That being said, if any coach can find a way to limit Bryant’s efficiency, it’s defensive mastermind Tom Thibodeau. Still, Kobe’s proving this postseason that he’s the best player in the game, and should be able to dominate.

 

Derek Fisher will do as Derek Fisher does. Initiate the triangle seamlessly, not turn the ball over, take one forced shot a game, and hit important jumpers when the final minutes tick down.

 

Ron Artest won’t be able to manhandle Paul Pierce on the box, and his shooting has been dreadful. Expect the Celtics to dare Artest to beat them with his shooting.

 

Off the bench, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown are more comfortable producing at home than on the road, and neither plays championship-quality defense.

 

When Boston has the ball, the big decision for the Lakers is what to do with Rajon Rondo. If the Lakers play Fisher on Rondo, the Celtics will just isolate Rondo at the top and have him use his superior speed and length to trump Fisher. Also, this will match Kobe on Ray Allen, and given Kobe’s propensity for turning his head and gambling for steals, Allen would be afforded numerous open looks.

 

By crossmatching, Kobe will have a slightly better chance at keeping Rondo in front, though the Celtics would use more ball screens to free up Rondo. However, Fisher would be more apt to maintaining body contact with Ray Allen while chasing him around screens.

 

Of course, if the Lakers don’t get their defense set, they might run into confusion in checking Rondo and Allen in transition. This would lead to Rondo going coast-to-coast or Allen finding himself wide open in transition. Needless to say, the Lakers’ communication must be on point.

 

The key matchup would be Pierce against Artest. Pierce carved up the inferior defensive wings of the Heat and Magic, but had trouble with LeBron James’ agility and massive upper body when the Celtics met the Cavs. Ron Artest has LeBron-like physical goods, and is well-versed in Pierce’s patented step-back jumper from the top.

 

If Artest can get the best of Pierce, then the Lakers have the edge to win the series. If Pierce can still impose his will, then the Lakers will find themselves underdogs.

 

Prediction: The Lakers are better prepared to stop Boston’s offense than any team Boston has faced this postseason. And unlike the relative simplicity of Orlando and Cleveland’s go brawn, or go long offenses, the Lakers have much more diversity in places they can pick apart a defense.

 

Still, the Lakers lack of focus will hurt them, and it’s unwise to count out the Celtics’ poise, and courage under fire. In the end though, the Lakers have home court, more talent, and more ways to slow down the Celtics than vice versa.

Lakers in 7.

[Poe]

Good analysis man. The history and match ups really point towards one hell of a series. Can't wait to witness the beginning tonight.

 

 

BTW, you may want to fix this:

 

When Boston has the ball, Perkins mostly serves as a moving screen-setter, who won’t score or attempt more than one post shot or two a game. However, he must be boxed out on the boards, something the Lakers’ bigs aren’t always wont to doing.

Edited June 3, 2010 by Poe

[Erick Blasco]

Good analysis man. The history and match ups really point towards one hell of a series. Can't wait to witness the beginning tonight.

 

 

BTW, you may want to fix this:

 

 

Wont is a word. It means accustomed to.

 

Unless it's supposed to be "wont to do?"Let me see how BR edited it?

 

Edit: BR left it as is.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Erick Blasco