recap and future for the thunder

[moeroadkill]

Record: 50-32

 

Season FIC Rank: 8th, +8.4 per game

 

Efficiency Differential: 11th, +3.7 per game

 

What They Did Well In 09-10: A substantial improvement for the Thunder was completely foreseeable, but they jumped from a 23-59 record while ranked 29th and 20th in offense and defense respectively up to a 50-32 record with those rankings up to 12th and 9th. They also gave the Lakers a difficult six-game series despite a trying series offensively for their best player.

 

Their best player, Kevin Durant, completely silenced the plus/minus crowd (myself included) by posting an on/off court of +16.0 points per 100 possessions and becoming a legitimate MVP candidate. He improved his defense substantially in an almost suspicious way similar to when Brady Anderson went from hitting about a dozen homers a year and then hit 50 in 1996. Durant's PER jumped from 20.8 to 26.2 and his TS% climbed from 57.7% to 60.7%, which led me to champion him as the most deserving Most Improved Player candidate. He was unable to sustain his 42.2% shooting from beyond the arc of his sophomore NBA season, but he offset that by his ability to create his own mid-range jumper and hit it at a vastly improved clip. The only real knock on Durant's game separating him from the true greats is as a passer, though he clearly still need to add some strength because he was largely taken out of the Lakers' series by the defensive physicality of Ron Artest.

 

Russell Westbrook, in his second NBA season, emerged as Durant's primary sidekick. He still need to work on his jumper, but his assist rate increased substantially from 27.5% to 38.6% and his playoff TS% was 57.1%. Westbrook was the most effective player on the floor for the Thunder in the playoffs and showed a glimpse of how he can become a hybrid of Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose.

 

Even though Jeff Green initially looked like he would be the final member of Oklahoma City's Big 3, Serge Ibaka has developed even more rapidly than his most optimistic prognostications. He made tangible improvements with each month of the season and any 20-year-old who has a 56.2 TS%, a 5.5 BLK% and is the best rebounder on the team has some very special upside.

 

James Harden had a fine season and should still give the Thunder exactly what they need, but it is difficult not to look at the rookie seasons had by Stephen Curry and Tyreke Evans with envy. Evans is an undeniable special talent, but he stylistically would have most likely created chemistry problems, but Curry's ability to stretch the floor and how he proved he can also create off the dribble would have set off an almost unstoppable backcourt trio with Westbrook and Durant, while he also could have run the point whenever Westbrook sat. But focusing back on Harden, he shot an extremely promising 37.5% from beyond the arc and 80.8% from the line, so he can clearly shoot the ball, but he must greatly improve his mid-range and ability to create for himself off the dribble. He should grow into an above average defender of shooting guards, but he clearly wasn't ready for difficult duty at the end of this season.

 

The acquisition of Eric Maynor, from a division rival no less, was one of those luxury tax relief theft trades the NBA almost needs to create a filter to stop because of the competitive advantage involved. Between this move and also the Kurt Thomas plus picks trade, the Thunder have been enviously opportunistic multiple times to improve the club in ways beyond just picking Durant and Westbrook in the draft. But because it was a small market team getting richer instead of one of the big teams on the coast, we can let it go and accept the fact that the Thunder will have a backup at point guard that would start on a handful of other teams over the next decade.

 

The Thunder were also excellent on the offensive glass, ranking third in ORB%.

 

What They Need To Improve In 10-11: The Thunder will naturally improve between now and the start of the next season by way of maturation of their young core. This team will win a ton of playoff series over the next decade, but I hope Sam Presti doesn't believe his team is largely a finished championship product. Knowing how he thinks a little bit, I suspect he doesn't feel that way whatsoever.

 

The Jeff Green quagmire is a difficult one to solve, or to find a remedy. He is undoubtedly playing out of position as a small forward asked to play big as an undersized stretch-four. His PER of 13.8 cannot be categorized as anything except a disappointment and his 3-point shooting took a hit from 38.9% to 33.3%. I'm not sure what the Thunder can do differently to make a meaningful difference and the best possible thing would be to find a trading partner, most ambitiously a sign-and-trade for Chris Bosh.

 

Beyond his abilities as a passer, Durant also must take his post game to the next step where he is able to withstand double teams.

 

We saw very little of Byron Mullens and I would like to see if he is capable of growing into a Nenad Krstic role off the bench eventually.

 

On the defensive end, the playoff series against the Lakers demonstrated they need better interior defense and also don't have a stopper on the wing. Krstic, Green, Ibaka and even Collison struggled to adequately defend the post and Thabo Sefolosha was good enough defensively in ISOs to compensate for his inability to his open jumpers on the other end of the floor.

 

Thunder Draft Needs: The Thunder have done an excellent job acquiring assets and they hold the 21st and 26th pick, but this has to be a summer of consolidation for Presti. The Thunder don't need any additional players who are marginally above average and though they did draft Ibaka in the 20s, I don't see a player in this draft that will be picked in that range who is capable of being that kind of impact player.

 

Ideally, the Thunder would be able to find a way to either use those picks to acquire a big capable of becoming a starter by moving up to get Derrick Favors, or by trade using Green and/or Harden as an included.

 

stole it from RealGM. nice little read if you interested in the thunder. doesn't say much what we don't know/knew already

Edited June 8, 2010 by MoeRoadKill