Best Free Agent Shooting Guards

[Erick Blasco]

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THE SUPERSTAR

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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Dwyane Wade mia U 28.5 20.0 .761 .562 .352 7.8 3.20 5.1 Most years, Wade--an All-NBA First Team selection each of the last two seasons still in the prime of his career--would be the prize of free agency. Only the presence of LeBron James can relegate Wade to the role of overqualified consolation prize. There's some risk to a six-year contract for Wade, especially given his history of injuries, but even at the max he'll be underpaid on the front end of his deal.

 

THE VETERAN WHO MAY AGE POORLY

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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Joe Johnson atl U 29.0 8.2 .554 .538 .264 7.2 2.08 1.6 I want to make this clear: My belief that Johnson's contract will ultimately come to be regarded is not a knock on Johnson the person or even necessarily Johnson the player. It's simply that the performance of similar players as they entered their 30s tells a cautionary story. John Hollinger found the same thing using his similarity system. If you don't trust our advanced metrics, consider minutes per game. Johnson's 10 best comparables averaged 35.2 minutes in what will be his 2010-11 season, 31.9 minutes the next and just 26.9 minutes a night during what will be his 2012-13 season. By that point--midway through Johnson's new contract--just three of those 10 players were averaging at least 35 minutes.

 

THE VETERAN STARTERS

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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John Salmons mil U 30.6 4.2 .488 .553 .200 5.4 0.57 2.5

Mike Miller was U 30.4 3.7 .515 .623 .148 10.8 1.29 1.6 As with Johnson, I'm on the record thinking Salmons' contract was too long and too lucrative. He has never in his career rated as better than average on a per-minute basis over the course of a full season. The Bucks, who once seemed to be pointing toward cap space in the summer of 2011, now seem locked into this group plus whatever they can fetch for Michael Redd's expiring contract. While Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut have upside, is this group good enough to contend in the East? And with Jennings on the rise, why add so many veteran players?

 

Miller is a more interesting case. When he joined the Timberwolves in 2008, he apparently decided he no longer wanted to shoot, and his usage rate plummeted from 19.8 percent of his team's plays to below 15 percent the last two seasons. The upside is Miller remains extraordinarily efficient as a scorer and a fine playmaker. Miller's versatile offensive skill set should age reasonably well. For three or four years at the mid-level exception, he's a solid pickup.

 

THE YOUNG SHOOTERS

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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Dorell Wright mia U 24.6 3.6 .534 .567 .159 9.2 0.32 3.6

J.J. Redick orl R 26.0 4.1 .526 .606 .184 4.8 0.96 1.0

Anthony Morrow gsw R 24.8 3.3 .495 .597 .178 7.2 0.16 2.1 In his sixth pro season, at the age of 24, Wright "got it" and became a quality reserve for the Heat, shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc while offering a better-rounded game than most shooting specialists. The potential had always been there for Wright, so there's the chance that last year was only the beginning for him. Wright has the advantage among younger free agents of being unrestricted because of his experience in the league. Another team would be wise to try to steal him away while the Heat is sorting out the max players.

 

Though Redick's stats had been terrible before 2009-10, it was evident during the 2009 postseason that his work behind the scenes was paying off. Redick has made himself into a positive at the defensive end of the floor and a capable ballhandler, and when he got regular minutes last season his shots started falling. I'm a little more concerned that last year might have been Redick's high-water mark, but it's a pretty nice mark.

 

Morrow's upside is limited by the fact that he is so strictly a shooting specialist. He has at least shown the ability to sustain a reasonably high usage rate for a spot-up player, but Morrow is not going to be a contributor defensively or as a playmaker. Still, guys who shoot 45 percent from three-point range are always valuable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.basketbal...?articleid=1177

Edited July 7, 2010 by Erick Blasco

[Poe]

In his sixth pro season, at the age of 24, Wright "got it" and became a quality reserve for the Heat, shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc while offering a better-rounded game than most shooting specialists. The potential had always been there for Wright, so there's the chance that last year was only the beginning for him. Wright has the advantage among younger free agents of being unrestricted because of his experience in the league. Another team would be wise to try to steal him away while the Heat is sorting out the max players.

 

Finally, someone who knows what their talking about with this guy.

 

 

Thanks for the link, btw.