Best Free Agent Point Guards

[Erick Blasco]

THE YOUNGSTERS WITH UPSIDE

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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Raymond Felton cha U 26.0 5.8 .521 .525 .193 6.5 3.78 3.1

Kyle Lowry hou R 24.3 4.4 .543 .536 .187 8.7 4.49 2.2

 

In a weak crop of free agents at the point, Raymond Felton and Kyle Lowry stand out as players who could potentially be long-term starting point guards. Felton substantially improved his stock while playing for the Bobcats' qualifying offer last season. The difference was almost entirely in terms of shooting the ball better, and if you trace it using Hoopdata.com's shot location data, you see Felton's percentages shot up in two opposite but crucial areas--at the rim and beyond the arc. There's reason to be concerned Felton will regress, but he is also very talented and just entering his prime, so his development is not entirely inexplicable.

 

Lowry is in some danger of being labeled as a backup, but statistically he outplayed Rockets starter Aaron Brooks on a per-minute basis (including posting the best net plus-minus on the team) and he's only 24. Lowry has made steady strides as a playmaker, becoming an asset in this regard, and he's a quality defender. The biggest question mark with Lowry is what kind of offer it's going to take to pry him away from Houston as a restricted free agent.

 

THE VETERAN TWEENERS

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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Luke Ridnour mil U 29.4 5.3 .561 .570 .221 4.8 5.19 1.9

Steve Blake lac U 30.4 3.4 .492 .539 .146 5.3 4.60 1.6

C.J. Watson gsw R 26.2 2.3 .478 .555 .161 5.3 1.32 3.0

Earl Watson ind U 31.1 1.7 .452 .517 .148 5.7 3.37 2.7

Chris Duhon nyk U 27.9 2.3 .470 .501 .132 4.9 5.72 1.5

 

Quietly, Luke Ridnour had an excellent season in Milwaukee, backing up Brandon Jennings and playing alongside him from time to time. That was no simple feat for Ridnour, who had previously struggled in reserve roles. Ridnour is good enough to start in the right situation, but being able to sell himself as a top backup point guard will enhance his value. (In this group, tweeners refers not to being stuck between positions but between starters and backups.) Ridnour ranked behind only Nate Robinson among free agent point guards in usage rate, posted far and away the best True Shooting Percentage of his career and remained a fine playmaker. He's bound to come back from that performance, but the talent has always been there.

 

While I think Ridnour is the better player overall, I can certainly see why the Lakers preferred Steve Blake, agreeing with him on a four-year contract last week. Offensively, Blake is an ideal fit for the triangle. He won't fix the Lakers' defensive problems at the point, but he also won't be any worse than what they've had.

 

C.J. Watson is younger than the rest of this group, but not so much so that he offers a lot of upside. Watson is an efficient scorer who certainly won't embarrass himself running the point. His assist percentage is low, but offset by the fact that he rarely turns the ball over.

 

The defensive-minded options from this group are Chris Duhon and Earl Watson, who have proven they can be passable as starters and assets as reserves. Because Duhon started the season in an epic shooting slump and the Knicks were a disappointment, he was perceived to be a disaster. While his performance was down from his first season in New York, it was pretty much in line with the rest of his career.

 

THE ENERGIZERS

 

Player Tm T Age WARP Win% TS% Usg Reb% Pass BS%

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Nate Robinson bos U 26.1 3.5 .568 .543 .246 5.8 2.39 2.6

Will Bynum det R 27.5 0.3 .425 .513 .203 5.4 3.55 2.1

 

Shooting guards in the bodies of rec-league players--in terms of height, not vertical--both Nate Robinson and Will Bynum are capable of supplying instant scoring off the bench. Robinson's numbers were never as poor as the perception of his season, which might have rebounded somewhat because he sparked the Celtics in several playoff games. What Robinson needs is a coach who, like Mike D'Antoni in 2008-09, will focus on what he can do and how to utilize his unique skills rather than dwelling on his shortcomings. Bynum wasn't able to entirely maintain the momentum of his first season in Detroit. His usage rate sunk in regular minutes (he used 28.1 percent of the Pistons' plays in 2008-09), while his True Shooting Percentage also went down. Bynum might be best as the fourth man in a three-guard rotation.

 

 

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