Breaking Down The Deals Part 2

[Erick Blasco]

With the superstars and pseudo-stars long accounted for, it’s been nothing but role players, backups, and bench-fillers changing teams the past few weeks. Let’s examine which minor moves may have major ramifications.

 

Linas Kleiza—Toronto Raptors

 

Kleiza’s not an outstanding athlete, and don’t expect much defense, but he can certainly put the ball in the basket. He’s a stocky player whose best attribute is three-point shooting though he’s also a strong finisher on the break and after driving along the baseline.

 

With Hedo Turkoglu now in Phoenix, Kleiza will have the first crack at the starting small forward position in Toronto. With the Raptors’ offensive spacing, he should thrive as a spot up shooter who would also duck in to the basket from time to time, especially against weaker defenders.

 

With Toronto having such a poor defensive roster, Kleiza’s defensive weaknesses would become even more exacerbated though. The Raptors would once again field an all-offense, no-defense lineup. They’d be hoping that the offensive talents of Kleiza and the rest of the roster would overcome their defensive ineptitude. If it didn’t work with Chris Bosh in tow, why would it work without him?

 

Grade: C+

 

Jordan Farmar—New Jersey Nets

 

Farmar is a good backup who can create his own shot off the dribble, knock down threes, and push the pace. He’s not a particularly effective defender, and he’s not athletic by NBA point guard standards, but he’s not a bad decision maker and can create offense in a pinch.

Grade: B

 

Anthony Morrow—New Jersey Nets

 

Morrow is a spot-up shooter who doesn’t do too much else. Without Golden State’s gimmicky offense generating open looks, Morrow would have to hope that Devin Harris’ drive and kick game can free up open looks. Double-teaming Brook Lopez won’t necessarily open Morrow up because teams would double off Harris because of his iffy jump shot.

 

Off the bench is where Morrow would be most effective. With Morrow, Jordan Farmar, Terrence Williams, Travis Outlaw, and Kris Humphries, the Nets bench would have some giddy-up. So long as the Nets can get enough stops, Humphries is a good enough rebounder to trigger New Jersey’s transition game, an attack which should create open looks for Morrow while defenses are trying to stop the ball and protect the basket first and foremost.

 

Morrow’s also insurance should Courtney Lee suffer through another disappointing season.

 

Grade: B

 

Travis Outlaw—New Jersey Nets

 

Outlaw has mastered a step-back jumper in the halfcourt, and is an athletic specimen in the open court. He’s even made himself into a respectable three-point shooter. He won’t pass so he can’t start, but he can certainly be the featured player off New Jersey’s bench.

Grade: B+

 

Johan Petro—New Jersey Nets

 

Petro is an athletic big who won’t embarrass himself, but he isn’t a disciplined defender, has trouble guarding the post, doesn’t have any notable offensive skills, and is mistake prone. There are worse third centers in the league, but the more the Nets need Petro, the worse off they become.

Grade: D

 

Jermaine O’Neal—Boston Celtics

 

O’Neal always has been totally soft on both ends of the court so it’s a wonder how exactly he’ll fit in with the Celtics. He’s still a somewhat reliable jump shooter from 16-feet out who loves to face up, take one dribble going left, and then pull-up for the jumper. He’ll also take his left hand to the basket against novice defenders who forget that he plays one-handed.

 

It’s hard to run screen/fades with O’Neal because he’s such a poor screen-setter. Plus, aside from a few games a month, O’Neal is strictly a turnaround jump shooter in the post. As such, Boston will probably use him as a safety valve baseline jump shooter, much the way P.J. Brown strictly shot jumpers from the baseline during Boston’s 2008 title run.

 

It’s odd that such a fragile player, and one with a notorious history of being a postseason dud (and who can forget his robust 21% shooting percentage against Boston last with the Heat last postseason) was signed by a team that builds its roster for deep playoff runs. At least when Kendrick Perkins returns from injury, O’Neal will be relegated to the bench.

Grade: D+

 

Wesley Matthews—Portland Trail Blazers

 

Matthews plays solid positional defense, is a capable shooter, and has a tremendous basketball IQ. If he’s not adept at creating his own shot, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Andre Miller take up the bulk of the scoring responsibilities for the Blazers. Matthews will be a designated stopper as their main perimeter defender, and will work without the ball to generate offense.

 

The Blazers hope Matthews can develop into a long term defensive ace they can plug at small forward. Nicolas Batum isn’t quick enough to defend two-guards the way Matthews can and Matthews is a more-well rounded offensive player.

 

However, Portland also wants to win a playoff series this year. Given how Matthews had some measure of success containing Carmelo Anthony, and how Portland’s interior defense is much better than last year’s Utah squad, and the Blazers should once again field an effective defensive team.

 

The Blazers are still low on perimeter players who can create their own jump shooting, something only Roy and Jerryd Bayless (in streaks) are adept at. Will Matthews’ presence supply enough offense for the Blazers to advance in the postseason?

 

Grade: B

 

Hilton Armstrong—Washington Wizards

 

Armstrong can block a shot or two, but he’s a weak, foul-prone, inadequate defender with limited offensive skills. The Wizards already have to deal with JaVale McGee’s growing pains and Andray Blatche’s immaturity, why didn’t they target a more veteran presence as a third center?

Grade: F

 

Quentin Richardson—Orlando Magic

 

Richardson was given a small role on the Heat last year and produced the most efficient season of his career. He’ll be asked to fill a similar role with Miami as a small forward who won’t play more than 30 minutes a game but can stretch the floor with three-point shooting while working hard on defense. Q-Rich also has some post up skills that can be put to use against select opponents.

 

Richardson will effectively be replacing Matt Barnes as Orlando’s starting small forward. Barnes covers more ground than Richardson as he’s a step quicker and a better jumper. Because of this the Magic can expect a drop off in their ability to get layups in transition and a drop off in their defense. On the other hand, Richardson is a much better shooter than Barnes so Orlando’s spacing and half court offense will see a boost.

 

Is he quick enough to force LeBron James or Dwyane Wade into designated help assignments? Is he big enough to contain James and Paul Pierce? Ultimately Richardon won’t be a difference maker.

 

Grade: C

 

Tony Allen—Memphis Grizzlies

Allen is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball. He’s strong enough to get into an opponent’s kitchen directing the offensive player to one direction, and he’s quick enough to keep pace with even the fastest scorers. His top-notch athleticism also makes him a menace in passing lanes which will create fast break opportunities for the young Grizzlies.

 

Allen’s athleticism allows him to finish on the break, and he’s an excellent baseline runner in the halfcourt, but his shooting is atrocious, and he can’t handle or pass. Fortunately, the Grizzlies have a world of offensive talent to alleviate Allen’s offensive flaws, and he provides the kind of top-flight defender the Grizzlies have lacked since Shane Battier was traded for Rudy Gay.

 

The Grizzlies needed defense to have serious designs of making the playoffs, and they acquired one of the best defenders out there. A win-win.

Grade: A

 

Dorell Wright—Golden State Warriors

 

Wright is a good athlete who can shoot, handle, and create. He’ll thrive playing alongside Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, and like any competent offensive player in Golden State, you can expect big numbers.

 

Sadly, Wright has the potential to develop into a good defender with his good combination of size and quickness, but still made too many mistakes based on not paying attention to detail. With Golden State, expect Wright’s defensive potential to go unrealized.

Grade: B

 

Josh Childress—Phoenix Suns

 

Childress is a really versatile player who can do a number of different things. He has size, speed and handles so he can get to the basket and create off the dribble, plus he can knock down perimeter jumpers. Defensively, his huge wingspan allows him to swoop into passing lanes to end up with a host of deflections and steals.

 

Playing alongside Steve Nash will allow Childress to simply use his athleticism to find easy baskets because if Childress is open, Nash will find him. Plus, Childress shoots well enough to keep Phoenix’ spacing on high screen/rolls. His rangy, disruptive defense ties into what Phoenix likes to do, as the steals he picks up will be converted into fast break opportunities. He’s the right player for the right team.

 

Grade: A-

 

Ian Mahinmi—Dallas Mavericks

 

Mahinmi is an athletic project big, who has good measurable, but hasn’t developed a go-to offensive move, and can’t defend without fouling. With two veteran centers on the roster, Mahinmi will have a pair of tutors to try and speed up his development.

 

Grade: B-

 

Sheldon Williams—Denver Nuggets

 

Williams can’t catch a cold, gets bullied under the basket, doesn’t move well, and is just about useless during any meaningful stretch of action. He was an unmitigated disaster for the Celtics during the course of last season, and won’t provide any substantial boost to Denver this season. If the game is close and Williams is in, the Nuggets are in trouble.

Grade: F

 

Al Harrington—Denver Nuggets

 

Harrington can score off the dribble, will drill three-pointers, rarely moves without the ball, doesn’t play defense, and lets his emotions get the best of him when a game hangs in the balance. In other words, he’s more of what the Nuggets have and don’t really need.

 

Couldn’t Denver stock up on some role players who can do the dirty work on defense, or some players who won’t lose their heads when a game begins to slip from their grasps? What need do they have for another shot-happy offensive player?

 

Grade: D-

 

Mike Miller—Miami Heat

Miller is an extremely accurate long distance shooter who will thrive off of the penetrations of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. He’s a veteran who knows how to move without the ball to get himself open, is totally unselfish, and is better than most spot-up gunners at creating his own offense and getting to the rim.

 

In this case, he’s not one-dimensional which opens up more opportunities for Miami’s offense, and he’d provide some measure of insurance should LeBron or especially Wade suffer a serious injury.

 

Miller’s not a particularly effective defensive player, but with LeBron and Wade’s defensive capabilities, Miller would probably defend the opponent’s weakest offensive wing anyway. A perfect signing for a talented complementary player.

 

Grade: A+

 

Zydrunas Ilgauskas—Miami Heat

 

As Zyggy Il ages, his ability to play effective basketball diminishes exponentially.

 

Ilgauskas can still occasionally hit a turnaround jumper over a shorter defender, but his offensive game now consists squarely of being an average mid-range jump shooter, and dropping in putbacks.

 

His defense is worse. Because Ilgauskas is basically shackled to the floor, opponents will always have success attacking Ilgauskas with a quick move, or forcing him to make a quick rotation. At least Ilgauskas is big enough to be a one-man wall when opponents attack the paint, but he’s a complete defensive liability.

 

Ilgauskas can still have some success as a part-time backup off the bench, but he’s not a championship-caliber starting player.

 

Grade: D+

 

Juwan Howard—Miami Heat

 

As Howard’s NBA career winds down, he’s more important in the locker room than on the court, as his experience, work ethic, and professionalism are his best qualities. He’s a respectable team defender, who knows where to be on the court, and he won’t make many mistakes. He’s not the worst third string power forward.

Grade: C

 

Raja Bell—Utah Jazz

 

Bell can still play rugged defense but he’s lost a step from his Phoenix days and isn’t the stopper he used to be. He’ll still get under opponents skin though, in many ways allowing weak-minded opponents to beat themselves. However, for a Jazz team which needs to get better defensively, Bell won’t be a huge upgrade.

 

Offensively, Bell has the toughness to set good screens, the stroke to hit mid-range and long-range jumpers, and the smarts to move without the ball to find open shots. In other words, he’s a perfect fit as a backup for Utah’s flex offense.

Grade: B-

 

Keyon Dooling—Milwaukee Bucks

 

Dooling is a lithe, quick point guard who can pressure the ball on defense and knock down jumpers on offense. Scott Skiles loves point guards who can apply full court ball pressure, and Dooling will be a defensive upgrade over Brandon Jennings and last year’s backup, Luke Ridnour.

 

Dooling can also create offense in a broken field which is always a plus. The Bucks are in trouble if Dooling is pressed to start, but he’s a good backup who’ll fit in nicely in Milwaukee.

Grade: B+

Edited August 6, 2010 by Erick Blasco

[Poe]

Good job and good read. I'm looking forward to part three.

 

 

I'd give the D-Wright signing in Golden State a higher grade personally, since he's the perfect player for their offense, and gives an upgrade defensively over Corey Maggette. Even if he doesn't have the greatest defensive IQ, he at least brings effort along with his athleticism on that end. Overall, he is a great compliment to Lee, Ellis, and Curry, and he'll produce big numbers playing in Nellie's system. Perhaps that's just my homer bias for a former player.

 

 

The grade on the Big Z acquisition is quite a bit harsh considering the lack of options in free agency. The Heat probably couldn't have gotten anything better for the vets minimum. Besides, he's not a negative impact either. He's a big body the Heat have lacked for a while, and his lack of defensive mobility won't be too exposed having James and Wade on the perimeter. His range offensively will be a plus as well.

 

 

I agree with the grade on Harrington, even though I don't think he's as bad as you made him out to be. He can be a good defender when he sets his mind to it. But since there isn't much he can bring that the Nuggets don't already have, I wonder how long it will take before he becomes a trading chip.

 

 

I always thought of Raja as a starter for Utah. Who is going to start in Mathews place then? CJ Miles? Gordon Hayward?

 

 

BTW, you spelled Ian Mahinmi wrong, I think.

Edited August 6, 2010 by Poe

[Erick Blasco]

Good job and good read. I'm looking forward to part three.

 

 

I'd give the D-Wright signing in Golden State a higher grade personally, since he's the perfect player for their offense, and gives an upgrade defensively over Corey Maggette. Even if he doesn't have the greatest defensive IQ, he at least brings effort along with his athleticism on that end. Overall, he is a great compliment to Lee, Ellis, and Curry, and he'll produce big numbers playing in Nellie's system. Perhaps that's just my homer bias for a former player.

 

 

The grade on the Big Z acquisition is quite a bit harsh considering the lack of options in free agency. The Heat probably couldn't have gotten anything better for the vets minimum. Besides, he's not a negative impact either. He's a big body the Heat have lacked for a while, and his lack of defensive mobility won't be too exposed having James and Wade on the perimeter. His range offensively will be a plus as well.

 

 

I agree with the grade on Harrington, even though I don't think he's as bad as you made him out to be. He can be a good defender when he sets his mind to it. But since there isn't much he can bring that the Nuggets don't already have, I wonder how long it will take before he becomes a trading chip.

 

 

I always thought of Raja as a starter for Utah. Who is going to start in Mathews place then? CJ Miles? Gordon Hayward?

 

 

BTW, you spelled Ian Mahinmi wrong, I think.

 

Fingers got ahead of me. N before M. Thanks for the heads up.

 

Miles started a bunch last year, and really impressed with a strong postseason. I imagine he'll be the starter when the Jazz begin the season. He's better in the open floor with Williams and has become a pretty good offensive player. He fouls too much on defense, but I don't know if Bell has enough left to start, especially on a team like Utah that doesn't take possessions off. He'll be 34 at the start of the season.

 

Harrington would be fine on other teams, but what does he give Denver that they don't have? He doesn't set his mind to playing good defense. He'll have a possession or two here or there, but the rest of the time, he's not helping you. He gives the Nuggets more offense---as if that's their problem.

 

Ilguaskas has embarrassed himself the last two postseasons against the Magic and Celtics. Those teams will find him and run plays taking advantage of how he can't move. As bad as Jermaine O'Neal is, he's a better player than Ilgauskas. Kurt Thomas was available. There were still better cheap players out there than Ilgauskas.

 

Wright will have a good year, the Warriors will win an extra game or two, but in the grand scheme of things, the Warriors aren't going to be significantly better with Wright on board so it's only a B.

[Poe]

Fingers got ahead of me. N before M. Thanks for the heads up.

 

No problem...... but you still have him misspelled the same way two more times in the paragraph lol

 

 

Harrington would be fine on other teams, but what does he give Denver that they don't have? He doesn't set his mind to playing good defense. He'll have a possession or two here or there, but the rest of the time, he's not helping you. He gives the Nuggets more offense---as if that's their problem.

 

I agree, all I said was that I feel he isn't as bad defensively as you said, that's all. He won't bring anything of value from the Nuggets' standpoint, and will likely get traded in the long run.

 

Ilguaskas has embarrassed himself the last two postseasons against the Magic and Celtics. Those teams will find him and run plays taking advantage of how he can't move. As bad as Jermaine O'Neal is, he's a better player than Ilgauskas. Kurt Thomas was available. There were still better cheap players out there than Ilgauskas.

 

Well, O'Neal ran off to Boston too quickly for the Heat to try to offer him anything. I doubt he was really available to begin with, especially looking at the contract he got from the Cs.

 

But even IF there are no benefits to acquiring Z, there's no real downside considering the price. The worst thing that will happen is he'll fill out the bench along with the other minimum wage veterans (like Juwan).

[Jenneral]

Nice post. The only one I really don't agree on is Big Z being a D+. He's still talented and will do just fine in Miami.

[Erick Blasco]

No problem...... but you still have him misspelled the same way two more times in the paragraph lol http://www.otrbasketball.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif

 

I suck at life lol.

 

 

 

 

I agree, all I said was that I feel he isn't as bad defensively as you said, that's all. He won't bring anything of value from the Nuggets' standpoint, and will likely get traded in the long run.

 

I see him being part of another playoff meltdown against the Utah Jazz.

 

 

 

Well, O'Neal ran off to Boston too quickly for the Heat to try to offer him anything. I doubt he was really available to begin with, especially looking at the contract he got from the Cs.

 

But even IF there are no benefits to acquiring Z, there's no real downside considering the price. The worst thing that will happen is he'll fill out the bench along with the other minimum wage veterans (like Juwan).

 

The worst thing that will happen is Dwight Howard salivating (who do the Heat have to check him?) and Boston salivating over all the open looks they'd get. The downside is the roster spot that's wasted on Z. I don't think he'll provide anything substantial at all aside from a few regular season offensive rebounds.

[Poe]

The worst thing that will happen is Dwight Howard salivating (who do the Heat have to check him?) and Boston salivating over all the open looks they'd get. The downside is the roster spot that's wasted on Z. I don't think he'll provide anything substantial at all aside from a few regular season offensive rebounds.

 

Joel Anthony (who will most probably be the one starting, btw) will do what he can to defend Dwight. He's the best the Heat got to defend him, so Howard will get his, but so will LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. The Magic don't have anyone to check those three, and last time I checked, three is greater than one.

 

 

Boston will be more difficult matchup wise. Then again, Joel brought a much more positive impact than JO in the last playoff series, if I recall correctly. I'll be more worried about Chalmers covering Rondo.

 

 

So even if Z is a liability on defense, I think the offensive impact of the star players will make up for it. Besides, I assume his minutes will be limited for the most part anyway.

[Nitro]

Good read, although I disagree with you about O'Neal and Big Z....

 

O'Neal is not a bad replacement for Rasheed at all. As long as he's not a primary option offensively like he was last season, he won't hurt you on that end. He has a consistent midrange jumper and can finish at the hoop reasonably well. Defensively he should fit in just nicely on the Celtics. Last season he was one of the best Centers in the league in defending the post (SOURCE), and he still has decent shot-blocking ability and makes proper defensive rotations (DRating of 103 as well, tied for best on the Heat for players who played consistent minutes). As a backup in the post-season I think he'll be a valuable asset.

 

As for Z, you can't expect way too much out of him, and there won't be a need for him to do too much. He's a big body who can rebound decently well, cause some problems to post-up players with his length, and he can stretch the floor with his solid jumper. Is he the ideal Center for the Heat? No, but when all you really have to work with is vet minimum contracts to fill out half the roster, beggers can't be choosers. Besides, they have very good depth in the frontcourt, and have many different potential lineups to put out on the court that can be effective.

[Beastley]

Morrow should be at least an A- for the Nets.

[Erick Blasco]

Good read, although I disagree with you about O'Neal and Big Z....

 

O'Neal is not a bad replacement for Rasheed at all. As long as he's not a primary option offensively like he was last season, he won't hurt you on that end. He has a consistent midrange jumper and can finish at the hoop reasonably well. Defensively he should fit in just nicely on the Celtics. Last season he was one of the best Centers in the league in defending the post (SOURCE), and he still has decent shot-blocking ability and makes proper defensive rotations (DRating of 103 as well, tied for best on the Heat for players who played consistent minutes). As a backup in the post-season I think he'll be a valuable asset.

 

As for Z, you can't expect way too much out of him, and there won't be a need for him to do too much. He's a big body who can rebound decently well, cause some problems to post-up players with his length, and he can stretch the floor with his solid jumper. Is he the ideal Center for the Heat? No, but when all you really have to work with is vet minimum contracts to fill out half the roster, beggers can't be choosers. Besides, they have very good depth in the frontcourt, and have many different potential lineups to put out on the court that can be effective.

 

O'Neal is also a player who, for all his attributes, plays much worse in the postseason and has for a lengthy career. Rasheed hit shots last postseason. I don't have the confidence Jermaine can do the same in a similar role. He also wasn't much a defensive factor at all against Boston last year, and he's an injury risk.

 

With Ilgauskas, the Cavs didn't expect much out of him either, didn't need him for much, and were helpless with him on the court. Bad players will find ways to make opponents look good, and that's what Ilgauskas is nowadays. He's a season removed from being a useful player. He'll fill a role in the regular season, but like Jermaine O'Neal, there's nothing there that inspires confidence.

[Nitro]

O'Neal is also a player who, for all his attributes, plays much worse in the postseason and has for a lengthy career. Rasheed hit shots last postseason. I don't have the confidence Jermaine can do the same in a similar role. He also wasn't much a defensive factor at all against Boston last year, and he's an injury risk.

 

Rasheed did hit shots in the post-season...at a sub-42% clip. Since JO went to Indiana the only major knock on most of his post-season runs was his FG % (compared to what he was expected to contribute based on regular season). Fortunately for this comparison, Rasheed had the same problem, shooting over 44% only once in his final 10 post-seasons. JO was horrific in the Boston series, but using a 5 game sample against one of the best defenses in NBA history is really being stingy and narrow-minded (especially since he just joined that same team). He shot well over 50% during the regular season, and shot over 50% in the 2009 post-season. Besides, at best he'll be the 5th scoring option in the starting lineup...he's not going to make or break the Celtics offensively. He just won't get that oppertunity.

 

As for him not being a defensive factor in that series...1) He had a DRtg of 100 that series, the next closest on the team was 104 by Wade/Q-Rich, 2) Who did he have to defend that would make a big impact for Boston? Perkins? Broken down KG?

 

With Ilgauskas, the Cavs didn't expect much out of him either, didn't need him for much, and were helpless with him on the court. Bad players will find ways to make opponents look good, and that's what Ilgauskas is nowadays. He's a season removed from being a useful player. He'll fill a role in the regular season, but like Jermaine O'Neal, there's nothing there that inspires confidence.

 

Cavs were helpless with him on the court? They wouldn't have had back-to-back 60+ win seasons if they were helpless with him. Just because he's not athletic and or like to bang down-low on offense doesn't mean he's a liability. He was 2nd last year in post-up defense, he's still a quality rebounder (which next to a Bosh-level rebounder will be plenty sufficient), still can hit open jumpers, and he's simply a big, servicable body. For the vet minimum you can't get much better quality at Center.

Edited August 7, 2010 by Nitro

[Erick Blasco]

Rasheed did hit shots in the post-season...at a sub-42% clip. Since JO went to Indiana the only major knock on most of his post-season runs was his FG % (compared to what he was expected to contribute based on regular season). Fortunately for this comparison, Rasheed had the same problem, shooting over 44% only once in his final 10 post-seasons. JO was horrific in the Boston series, but using a 5 game sample against one of the best defenses in NBA history is really being stingy and narrow-minded (especially since he just joined that same team). He shot well over 50% during the regular season, and shot over 50% in the 2009 post-season. Besides, at best he'll be the 5th scoring option in the starting lineup...he's not going to make or break the Celtics offensively. He just won't get that oppertunity.

 

A 42% that scaled as his postseason progressed: 6-15, 40% against Miami; 13-27 48% against the Cavs; 18-42, 43% against the Magic; and a 15-41, 37% which looks worse but most of misses came in a blowout Game 6 where his performance in the grand scheme of things didn't make a whole lot of difference.

 

Since Wallace shoots so many threes, eFG% is a better barometer of his success, and he shot a tick under 50% factoring in his threes. He also played exceptional defense throughout the postseason.

 

Frankly, I was shocked Wallace performed so well on offense. I've never been a fan of Wallace's offense because he's always been lazy when his team has needed him. Last year came out of nowhere and against his history, is an aberration. Are we to trust O'Neal will also have an anomalous postseason filled with important jumpers and a big time post showing in a Game Seven? O'Neal has also never come close to having the defensive rep of Wallace. Even those dinky NBA Gameplan clips I used to do shows O'Neal flat out missing a defensive rotation. How many rotations does Wallace miss? He's incredibly aware.

 

That's what O'Neal doesn't do well. So much of defense is whether you can make adequate baseline rotations. O'Neal misses some, and since he's not as forceful as other players, tends to get pushed around under the hoop. I have one of the Celtics-Heat games on a DVD, I'll burn it up and try to come up with a video outlining the help difference between the two when I get some time.

 

O'Neal's playoff percentages have been poor his entire career except against Atlanta's "switch every screen" defense which saw Marvin Williams checking O'Neal as often as Al Horford was (a bit of hyperbole but not too much). Is he supposed to have a renaissance on Boston?

 

 

 

Cavs were helpless with him on the court? They wouldn't have had back-to-back 60+ win seasons if they were helpless with him. Just because he's not athletic and or like to bang down-low on offense doesn't mean he's a liability. He was 2nd last year in post-up defense, he's still a quality rebounder (which next to a Bosh-level rebounder will be plenty sufficient), still can hit open jumpers, and he's simply a big, servicable body. For the vet minimum you can't get much better quality at Center.

 

Are the Miami Heat any threat to miss the playoffs this year? 1 seed, 8 seed, Miami is making the postseason. Who cares what Ilgauskas does in the regular season? All the regular season is to good teams is habit building. If Miami wins 60 games, bulldozes through some hapless 8 seed, and gets taken out by an Orlando Magic team with Dwight Howard romping through Ilguaksas and the Heat front line, or against a Celtics team which suffocates Ilgauskas' jumpers and punishes his defense, then a 66-win season will seem pretty hollow.

 

I mean, is anybody impressed with the Cavs regular season last year? They won some games, that's nice. They sleptwalked through an overmatched Bulls team and still won, pretty cool. And then they self-destructed against Boston where all their bad habits, flaws, and mistakes were exposed. Just like the year previous where all their defensive shortcomings were picked apart. This is what good coaches and scouts do. They punish liabilities. Ilgauskas will swallow most post players, but Howard destroys him. Plus the Magic and Celtics put him in screen rolls that Ilgauskas is awful against. What's his screen/roll defensive FG percentage?

 

Plus, since Orlando puts four shooters on the floor, it's literally impossible for Ilgauskas to make a substantial number of rotations he'll need to make to cover three-point shooters.

 

It's going to be ugly next postseason for Miami should they need to get any substantial minutes from Ilgauskas.

[fish7718]

Nice read

[Nitro]

A 42% that scaled as his postseason progressed: 6-15, 40% against Miami; 13-27 48% against the Cavs; 18-42, 43% against the Magic; and a 15-41, 37% which looks worse but most of misses came in a blowout Game 6 where his performance in the grand scheme of things didn't make a whole lot of difference.

 

Since Wallace shoots so many threes, eFG% is a better barometer of his success, and he shot a tick under 50% factoring in his threes. He also played exceptional defense throughout the postseason.

 

Frankly, I was shocked Wallace performed so well on offense. I've never been a fan of Wallace's offense because he's always been lazy when his team has needed him. Last year came out of nowhere and against his history, is an aberration. Are we to trust O'Neal will also have an anomalous postseason filled with important jumpers and a big time post showing in a Game Seven? O'Neal has also never come close to having the defensive rep of Wallace. Even those dinky NBA Gameplan clips I used to do shows O'Neal flat out missing a defensive rotation. How many rotations does Wallace miss? He's incredibly aware.

 

That's what O'Neal doesn't do well. So much of defense is whether you can make adequate baseline rotations. O'Neal misses some, and since he's not as forceful as other players, tends to get pushed around under the hoop. I have one of the Celtics-Heat games on a DVD, I'll burn it up and try to come up with a video outlining the help difference between the two when I get some time.

 

O'Neal's playoff percentages have been poor his entire career except against Atlanta's "switch every screen" defense which saw Marvin Williams checking O'Neal as often as Al Horford was (a bit of hyperbole but not too much). Is he supposed to have a renaissance on Boston?

 

I think you're really grasping at straws, man. Wallace shot sub-42% from the field and sub-35% from 3 in the post-season. No matter how you cut it, that's not exactly impressive. Not something so out of reach that JO can't match or at least make up for (as he surpassed 52% EFG in the 2006 and 2009 post-seasons). And again, we're not talking about Indiana or Miami Jermaine O'Neal in terms of what is needed from him. I think that's the biggest reason you felt Rasheed had an abberation of a post-season last year...he was a bench player and a 4th or 5th option virtually everytime he was on the floor, as opposed to in the past where his flaws were glaring because he was a featured player. He didn't really play any differently (sans Game 7 in LA, where his efforts didn't end up mattering anyway), it's just that you appreciate what he does offer when he isn't looked to as a primary weapon. JO will have the same role, possibly even less because the Celtics will be deeper than last year in the frontcourt.

 

As for defensively, you can't realistically expect the Celtics to get a defensive player with such little off-season payroll as good as Wallace was. JO is a very solid defender who is very good at defending post-players, can block a few shots and isn't horrible on his rotations. On a team with a good amount of defensive talent and a terrific defensive gameplan, his defense will get better on the Celtics. I'm not saying he'll turn into an All-NBA defender, but often times players get better defensively when they are on the right team with the proper structure. As it is, he was a good defender to begin with.

 

Are the Miami Heat any threat to miss the playoffs this year? 1 seed, 8 seed, Miami is making the postseason. Who cares what Ilgauskas does in the regular season? All the regular season is to good teams is habit building. If Miami wins 60 games, bulldozes through some hapless 8 seed, and gets taken out by an Orlando Magic team with Dwight Howard romping through Ilguaksas and the Heat front line, or against a Celtics team which suffocates Ilgauskas' jumpers and punishes his defense, then a 66-win season will seem pretty hollow.

 

I mean, is anybody impressed with the Cavs regular season last year? They won some games, that's nice. They sleptwalked through an overmatched Bulls team and still won, pretty cool. And then they self-destructed against Boston where all their bad habits, flaws, and mistakes were exposed. Just like the year previous where all their defensive shortcomings were picked apart. This is what good coaches and scouts do. They punish liabilities. Ilgauskas will swallow most post players, but Howard destroys him. Plus the Magic and Celtics put him in screen rolls that Ilgauskas is awful against. What's his screen/roll defensive FG percentage?

 

Plus, since Orlando puts four shooters on the floor, it's literally impossible for Ilgauskas to make a substantial number of rotations he'll need to make to cover three-point shooters.

 

It's going to be ugly next postseason for Miami should they need to get any substantial minutes from Ilgauskas.

 

The thing is, Miami won't need Z to play major minutes in either the regular or post-season. They have a really, really good defender in Joel Anthony that caused guys like Bynum tons of trouble last year by properly fronting the post as well as blocking shots on the weakside. Howard and Haslem can play most bigs with success as well at the PF and C positions. Even Magloire isn't a bad defender if they need a big body to be put on Dwight for spot minutes. Even IF Dwight goes off on the Heat, he's going to have a lot of problems staying out of foul trouble against 3 of the top 8 players in the league last year in FT's made. Every year LeBron and Wade rip apart the Magic's defense. Bosh dropped 40 a year or two ago on them. The Heat have arguably even greater depth than the Magic with better talent. Dwight won't beat the Heat. His flash in the pan offensive showings is something Wade/Bosh/James can do on a nightly basis if the Heat need it.

 

Also, the Heat have been top 10 in defense virtually every season since Wade was drafted. That's with a few totally different rosters top-to-bottom, 3 different coaches, them going from Shaq to being very undersized, etc... The organization will always have a defensive identity as long as Riley is in some position of prominence, and they made some huge upgrades on that side of the floor. They will figure out a gameplan to minimize Z's flaws just like they have done with so many players over the years. Offensively he doesn't even have to hit a shot; stand 15ft out and force the defense to pay attention to him so the lanes open a bit for Wade/James/Bosh. Anything else is gravy.

[Erick Blasco]

I think you're really grasping at straws, man. Wallace shot sub-42% from the field and sub-35% from 3 in the post-season. No matter how you cut it, that's not exactly impressive. Not something so out of reach that JO can't match or at least make up for (as he surpassed 52% EFG in the 2006 and 2009 post-seasons). And again, we're not talking about Indiana or Miami Jermaine O'Neal in terms of what is needed from him. I think that's the biggest reason you felt Rasheed had an abberation of a post-season last year...he was a bench player and a 4th or 5th option virtually everytime he was on the floor, as opposed to in the past where his flaws were glaring because he was a featured player. He didn't really play any differently (sans Game 7 in LA, where his efforts didn't end up mattering anyway), it's just that you appreciate what he does offer when he isn't looked to as a primary weapon. JO will have the same role, possibly even less because the Celtics will be deeper than last year in the frontcourt.

 

As for defensively, you can't realistically expect the Celtics to get a defensive player with such little off-season payroll as good as Wallace was. JO is a very solid defender who is very good at defending post-players, can block a few shots and isn't horrible on his rotations. On a team with a good amount of defensive talent and a terrific defensive gameplan, his defense will get better on the Celtics. I'm not saying he'll turn into an All-NBA defender, but often times players get better defensively when they are on the right team with the proper structure. As it is, he was a good defender to begin with.

 

Very nice with the "his efforts didn't end up mattering anyway" snarky line when he was the best offensive player on the floor for the Celtics that game, and who hit a huge three to make it close within two minutes left when the Lakers were pulling away. Jermaine still has to prove that he can provide even the relatively modest numbers Wallace put up. Just because he's slipping into a lesser role doesn't always mean that he'll be able to meet responsibilities needed of him. One thing about Wallace---he also was a disaster last regular season. It's not as if he had a successful regular season as a 5th/6th option. What if O'Neal takes a similar trajectory, but bombs in the playoffs as well?

 

My point is that players who are used to falling when needed don't always come through in lesser roles. Habits are habits. O'Neal has a negative Offensive Win Share for his playoff career. That's pretty bad.

 

O'Neal's post defense may be fine, but his dMult was slightly below average on a good defensive team.

 

For the sake of discretion, Rasheed Wallace had a worse dMult for last year, but he sleptwalked through the entire regular season. BasketballProspectus doesn't have playoff-only statistics on their player page but Wallace simply plays defense at a higher level. For example, how do you chart post up stats where Wallace successfully fronts the post and denies an entry pass? O'Neal almost exclusively plays behind defenders, yet when you look at Boston in the playoffs, Wallace is three-quartering, pushing centers out of the post, getting his hands in front of entry passes, and making pinpoint rotations when teammates are getting beat. We saw that against Cleveland, Orlando, and Los Angeles. Have we seen Jermaine O'Neal do that?

 

Then there's the minutia of O'Neal being a poor screen-setter. Then there's the fact that he's as big an injury risk as anyone in the NBA.

 

Is there some All-Star caliber defender out there? Perhaps not, but creative teams will always find ways to fill holes. Just because O'Neal's possibly the best of bad options, doesn't make him a good option.

 

The thing is, Miami won't need Z to play major minutes in either the regular or post-season. They have a really, really good defender in Joel Anthony that caused guys like Bynum tons of trouble last year by properly fronting the post as well as blocking shots on the weakside. Howard and Haslem can play most bigs with success as well at the PF and C positions. Even Magloire isn't a bad defender if they need a big body to be put on Dwight for spot minutes. Even IF Dwight goes off on the Heat, he's going to have a lot of problems staying out of foul trouble against 3 of the top 8 players in the league last year in FT's made. Every year LeBron and Wade rip apart the Magic's defense. Bosh dropped 40 a year or two ago on them. The Heat have arguably even greater depth than the Magic with better talent. Dwight won't beat the Heat. His flash in the pan offensive showings is something Wade/Bosh/James can do on a nightly basis if the Heat need it.

 

Also, the Heat have been top 10 in defense virtually every season since Wade was drafted. That's with a few totally different rosters top-to-bottom, 3 different coaches, them going from Shaq to being very undersized, etc... The organization will always have a defensive identity as long as Riley is in some position of prominence, and they made some huge upgrades on that side of the floor. They will figure out a gameplan to minimize Z's flaws just like they have done with so many players over the years. Offensively he doesn't even have to hit a shot; stand 15ft out and force the defense to pay attention to him so the lanes open a bit for Wade/James/Bosh. Anything else is gravy.

 

Anthony also came out of the womb with three personal fouls and has zero offensive skills. I like Anthony a ton as a limited-minutes backup, and I like Haslem a ton as a medium-minutes backup at the four, but between he, Bosh, and Ilgauskas there will be openings near the basket so long as those are your centers.

 

The Heat will probably be a top-10 defensive team next year too. I understand how good the organization is at protecting poor defenders. Heck, Antoine Walker and Jason Williams started on a title team. But Ilgauskas is just a body. He does nothing to influence a game against good teams. Opponents will leave him to double elsewhere. The Cavs played him in only three games against the Celtics last year for good reason.

 

If you want to sign a bargain basement guy who won't contribute much offensively, why not just sign Theo Ratliff as your 5th big? Why not sign Kurt Thomas? Why not sign Brad Miller who's a lot like Ilgauskas but can pass? These are precious roster spots, they can't be wasted.

[Nitro]

Very nice with the "his efforts didn't end up mattering anyway" snarky line when he was the best offensive player on the floor for the Celtics that game, and who hit a huge three to make it close within two minutes left when the Lakers were pulling away. Jermaine still has to prove that he can provide even the relatively modest numbers Wallace put up. Just because he's slipping into a lesser role doesn't always mean that he'll be able to meet responsibilities needed of him. One thing about Wallace---he also was a disaster last regular season. It's not as if he had a successful regular season as a 5th/6th option. What if O'Neal takes a similar trajectory, but bombs in the playoffs as well?

 

My point is that players who are used to falling when needed don't always come through in lesser roles. Habits are habits. O'Neal has a negative Offensive Win Share for his playoff career. That's pretty bad.

 

O'Neal's post defense may be fine, but his dMult was slightly below average on a good defensive team.

 

For the sake of discretion, Rasheed Wallace had a worse dMult for last year, but he sleptwalked through the entire regular season. BasketballProspectus doesn't have playoff-only statistics on their player page but Wallace simply plays defense at a higher level. For example, how do you chart post up stats where Wallace successfully fronts the post and denies an entry pass? O'Neal almost exclusively plays behind defenders, yet when you look at Boston in the playoffs, Wallace is three-quartering, pushing centers out of the post, getting his hands in front of entry passes, and making pinpoint rotations when teammates are getting beat. We saw that against Cleveland, Orlando, and Los Angeles. Have we seen Jermaine O'Neal do that?

 

Then there's the minutia of O'Neal being a poor screen-setter. Then there's the fact that he's as big an injury risk as anyone in the NBA.

 

Is there some All-Star caliber defender out there? Perhaps not, but creative teams will always find ways to fill holes. Just because O'Neal's possibly the best of bad options, doesn't make him a good option.

 

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. However, I think you're SERIOUSLY overrating Wallace's abilities and impact if you don't think O'Neal can contribute at least 90% of what Wallace did last season and in the post-season. O'Neal is a very solid player and a good defender. He has been relatively healthy the last 2 seasons and was the anchor of one of the league's best defenses last season, as well as the 2nd best overall player on a 47 win team (yes I am aware it was a poor team and he bombed against Boston, but nontheless...). I am not saying he's a championship caliber 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th option, but to think he can't or won't be a solid contributor as a 2nd or 3rd backup in the frontcourt positions is foolish.

 

PS- I'm a stat guy, but have never heard of dMult...what is it? I think O'Neal having the best defensive rating on the team alongside Wade (Magloire had the best drtg but played very few minutes), while also being one of the best defensive post players in the league speaks enough to that he is a very capable defender.

 

Anthony also came out of the womb with three personal fouls and has zero offensive skills. I like Anthony a ton as a limited-minutes backup, and I like Haslem a ton as a medium-minutes backup at the four, but between he, Bosh, and Ilgauskas there will be openings near the basket so long as those are your centers.

 

The Heat will probably be a top-10 defensive team next year too. I understand how good the organization is at protecting poor defenders. Heck, Antoine Walker and Jason Williams started on a title team. But Ilgauskas is just a body. He does nothing to influence a game against good teams. Opponents will leave him to double elsewhere. The Cavs played him in only three games against the Celtics last year for good reason.

 

If you want to sign a bargain basement guy who won't contribute much offensively, why not just sign Theo Ratliff as your 5th big? Why not sign Kurt Thomas? Why not sign Brad Miller who's a lot like Ilgauskas but can pass? These are precious roster spots, they can't be wasted.

 

1) In regards to Joel Anthony, Kendrick Persons also did NOTHING offensively his first few seasons in the league. He went from shooting 49% his 4th season to 61.5% shooting in his 5th, which was the Big 3's first season together. He was equally as foul prone in similar minutes, if not moreso. My point is that with so much offensive AND defensive talent on the roster, Anthony is going to look a whole lot better. He'll have more leeway defensively, and offensively he won't have to do much more than dunk the ball and finish easy plays off. I think he'll have a very nice season next year. I don't expect him to average many minutes, but he should be able to contribute a useful 20MPG.

 

2) I think it's very premature to say how Illgauskas will influence the game without seeing him on a team this talented and stacked. He's never been on a team with such good defenders on the perimeter, and hasn't been on a team that should KILL opponents on the boards. He's also never had anyone that has demanded defensive attention besides LeBron. My point is that you can't expect perfection when you are so limited in finances. The Heat got a guy who is 7'3'', can effectively defend and box out some of the bigger Centers in the league, has a consistent midrange game that will be important in spacing the floor, etc... Really, that's a decent amount of value for a vet minimum Center.

 

3) Kurt Thomas would have been nice, but I wouldn't say he's marginally better than Illguaskas. Theo Ratliff hasn't played in 50 games any of the last 4 seasons while Illgauskas has been very reliable since his foot injuries early in his career. Brad Miller? I don't know the terms of his contract off the top of my head, but I would assume it's considerably more than the vet minimum. And if it is, the Heat would have been CRAZY to waste cap space on him instead of Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem. Also, I fully believe Z/Haslem/Miller and a few others were signed with great influence by James/Wade since they already have built chemistry with them.

[Universe]

Outlaw will be a starter for the Nets.

 

Nice article.

[Erick Blasco]

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. However, I think you're SERIOUSLY overrating Wallace's abilities and impact if you don't think O'Neal can contribute at least 90% of what Wallace did last season and in the post-season. O'Neal is a very solid player and a good defender. He has been relatively healthy the last 2 seasons and was the anchor of one of the league's best defenses last season, as well as the 2nd best overall player on a 47 win team (yes I am aware it was a poor team and he bombed against Boston, but nontheless...). I am not saying he's a championship caliber 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th option, but to think he can't or won't be a solid contributor as a 2nd or 3rd backup in the frontcourt positions is foolish.

 

PS- I'm a stat guy, but have never heard of dMult...what is it? I think O'Neal having the best defensive rating on the team alongside Wade (Magloire had the best drtg but played very few minutes), while also being one of the best defensive post players in the league speaks enough to that he is a very capable defender.

 

dMult is a stat the guys at Basketball Prospectus use to evaluate defenders playing the same position. Basically they take a tally of each player's production (I don't know what stats they specifically use for production...it might be some variation of PER) across a season. They then take what those players did when defended by a certain counterpart, say Jermaine O'Neal. At the end, they'll tally how each center performed across the entire 82 game series, vs. how well they performed against Jermaine O'Neal.

 

In the end, they'll assign a number with a baseline of 1.000. Numbers less than 1.00 are better than average, higher numbers are worse than average. Dwight Howard's dMult was the best in the league at a ridiculous 0.548. It means that opposing centers only accrued 55% of their normal production when Dwight Howard was in the game. David Lee's was 1.282, meaning that players accrued 128 % of their usual numbers when defended by Lee, etc.

 

The stat has its flaws. It doesn't account for help defense or cross-matching but it's a nice took to complement Ratings which I believe are heavily based on team stats and on-court off-court. numbers. Also, since it measures all teams, it's a stat best used for how good a player is against the wide scope of all the players in the league. It's less reliable in the playoffs when there are very few bad teams to pad stats.

 

 

1) In regards to Joel Anthony, Kendrick Persons also did NOTHING offensively his first few seasons in the league. He went from shooting 49% his 4th season to 61.5% shooting in his 5th, which was the Big 3's first season together. He was equally as foul prone in similar minutes, if not moreso. My point is that with so much offensive AND defensive talent on the roster, Anthony is going to look a whole lot better. He'll have more leeway defensively, and offensively he won't have to do much more than dunk the ball and finish easy plays off. I think he'll have a very nice season next year. I don't expect him to average many minutes, but he should be able to contribute a useful 20MPG.

 

2) I think it's very premature to say how Illgauskas will influence the game without seeing him on a team this talented and stacked. He's never been on a team with such good defenders on the perimeter, and hasn't been on a team that should KILL opponents on the boards. He's also never had anyone that has demanded defensive attention besides LeBron. My point is that you can't expect perfection when you are so limited in finances. The Heat got a guy who is 7'3'', can effectively defend and box out some of the bigger Centers in the league, has a consistent midrange game that will be important in spacing the floor, etc... Really, that's a decent amount of value for a vet minimum Center.

 

Ilgauskas has had LeBron James, Anthony Parker, and Delonte West for two years. It's not quite Ron Artest, Shane Battier, and Rajon Rondo, but Cleveland had some good perimeter defenders, plus Varejao and Ben Wallace. Cleveland put together a nice defensive roster. Yes Wade is better than Parker, but it's not as if Ilgauskas has been on Golden State. He's been on good rebounding teams before (From what I remember, that Cavs team that went to the Finals was really solid on the glass), where he was a major reason why those teams were good rebounding teams. He's not that same player anymore.

 

Yes he has more offensive talent around him, but he's a shooter on a team whose biggest rivals (the Celtics, Magic, and Lakers) have frontcourts who can cover defensive ground. KG can rotate out to shooters. Rashard Lewis will force Ilgauskas to shoot over him (and Howard has been a little bit better defending players who can shoot). Gasol and Odom can help and recover.

 

Ilgauskas might grab a board or two against Boston, but he's not going to get all these putbacks against the Lakers and against Howard and Gortat.

 

3) Kurt Thomas would have been nice, but I wouldn't say he's marginally better than Illguaskas. Theo Ratliff hasn't played in 50 games any of the last 4 seasons while Illgauskas has been very reliable since his foot injuries early in his career. Brad Miller? I don't know the terms of his contract off the top of my head, but I would assume it's considerably more than the vet minimum. And if it is, the Heat would have been CRAZY to waste cap space on him instead of Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem. Also, I fully believe Z/Haslem/Miller and a few others were signed with great influence by James/Wade since they already have built chemistry with them.

 

My point is that, the Heat could've sent out a calling card if Miller would want to latch out and try to win a ring. Thomas is another good interior defender (and as the wasted minutes Sheldon Williams provided last postseason mean anything, you can never have enough veterans who can defend), and he does a lot of the same things Ilguaskas can do, though without three-point range. Plus he's real good in the locker room and has enough clout to keep some of Miami's egos in check. Ilgauskas is just another LeBron groupie who's buddy-buddy with him. The Heat could use a player to keep everyone focused. Spoelstra has never come close to having the egos he has to manage, and Riley's a bit distant since he's not on the bench and locker room every game. Maybe Magloire can be that guy, but Thomas seems like a perfect fit on multiple levels. At least he can defend a guy like Bynum in the post for short stretches.

[Nitro]

dMult is a stat the guys at Basketball Prospectus use to evaluate defenders playing the same position. Basically they take a tally of each player's production (I don't know what stats they specifically use for production...it might be some variation of PER) across a season. They then take what those players did when defended by a certain counterpart, say Jermaine O'Neal. At the end, they'll tally how each center performed across the entire 82 game series, vs. how well they performed against Jermaine O'Neal.

 

In the end, they'll assign a number with a baseline of 1.000. Numbers less than 1.00 are better than average, higher numbers are worse than average. Dwight Howard's dMult was the best in the league at a ridiculous 0.548. It means that opposing centers only accrued 55% of their normal production when Dwight Howard was in the game. David Lee's was 1.282, meaning that players accrued 128 % of their usual numbers when defended by Lee, etc.

 

The stat has its flaws. It doesn't account for help defense or cross-matching but it's a nice took to complement Ratings which I believe are heavily based on team stats and on-court off-court. numbers. Also, since it measures all teams, it's a stat best used for how good a player is against the wide scope of all the players in the league. It's less reliable in the playoffs when there are very few bad teams to pad stats.

 

Gotcha. I'll check it out.

 

Ilgauskas has had LeBron James, Anthony Parker, and Delonte West for two years. It's not quite Ron Artest, Shane Battier, and Rajon Rondo, but Cleveland had some good perimeter defenders, plus Varejao and Ben Wallace. Cleveland put together a nice defensive roster. Yes Wade is better than Parker, but it's not as if Ilgauskas has been on Golden State. He's been on good rebounding teams before (From what I remember, that Cavs team that went to the Finals was really solid on the glass), where he was a major reason why those teams were good rebounding teams. He's not that same player anymore.

 

Yes he has more offensive talent around him, but he's a shooter on a team whose biggest rivals (the Celtics, Magic, and Lakers) have frontcourts who can cover defensive ground. KG can rotate out to shooters. Rashard Lewis will force Ilgauskas to shoot over him (and Howard has been a little bit better defending players who can shoot). Gasol and Odom can help and recover.

 

Ilgauskas might grab a board or two against Boston, but he's not going to get all these putbacks against the Lakers and against Howard and Gortat.

 

Illgauskas really hasn't fallen off nearly as much as you're implying. He started in 534 straight games before last season, and played about 10MPG less than what he was averaging those previous 7 seasons. He also missed a month of action due to the trade and buy-out (not surprisingly he shot below 40% for the remainder of the season, whereas before the trade he was around the 47-48% we're accustomed to seeing). Last year, besides TS% which was hit so hard because of the amount of change he had to adapt to, everything was pretty constant considering his usage..TRB%, Drtg, etc... Had Shaq not been signed to the team (which he shouldn't have been, they were better without him last year), I think Z would have given virtually the same production as the last 3-4 seasons.

 

Anyway, even though he's been on great rebounding teams before, in theory this team should be the very best. Z himself is a very solid rebounder, Bosh is a very good rebounder, Wade's a very good rebounder for his position, James is a great rebounder, Miller's a very good rebounder, Haslem is very good, and the list goes on and on. Against the likes of LA and Boston they shouldn't be getting killed on the boards. The Heat should be better on the boards than either the '09-'10 Cavs or Heat, and both those teams did well in the rebounding department (Cavs outrebounded both LA/Boston in the regular season and split the Boston series in rebounding 3-3, and the Heat generally held their own even though they had poor rebounding talent and were a bit undersized. Boston exposed them in the playoffs, but nontheless they were a pretty good rebounding squad).

 

And I stand by my opinion that as long as he can stretch the defense and occasionally hit the jumper, he'll be a positive offensive addition. Even though Boston/LA/Orlando can make sharp rotations, you can't be in 2 places at once and eventually there will be give. In the past, teams could afford to stick on Z and force him to shoot over the defender because no one else on the Cavs besides LeBron could hurt them aside from spot-up jumpers. Against this year's Heat, you have arguably the best penetrators in the league at the SG/SF/PF positions. Z has enough range where teams will have a lot of trouble defending them, even if he's used simply as a decoy. As Wade showed in the post-season, even with little floor spacing and surrounding talent a defense like Boston's can be ripped apart with such elite slashing ability.

 

My point is that, the Heat could've sent out a calling card if Miller would want to latch out and try to win a ring.

 

Getting Miller was #1 priority. They did the smart move and signed him to a few seasons at a reasonable contract. He was the single most important role player they had the ability to sign this off-season. Having a lights-out shooter is absolutely the most important piece to have when you have 3 guys that can cause so much mayhem off the dribble. He's also unselfish, a good passer, good rebounder and also tough. The Heat will already have a great defense and be very good on the boards...getting Miller/Haslem with their remaining cap space was paramount. If you can name only one player who MAYBE was a better fit at Center with the vet minimum, I'd say the grade for signing him should certainly be higher than a D+. Z is a very nice value for that asking price. Besides, from a basketball standpoint, I really think it does make sense. Not the ideal Center for this team, but a nice fit nontheless.

Edited August 9, 2010 by Nitro

[Newman]

I like the analysis but is the salary of the player and predicted PT considered when you make those grades? Hilton Armstrong is crap, but still, he didn't cost the Wizards much and at most he is going to play like 10 mins per game so really it's not so bad of a signing that it deserves a F. Maybe I am just thinking of these like school grades where F and A should be given only at the worst/best things, but I think those are two factors that should have a larger weighting on determining the grade.

[Erick Blasco]

 

 

Illgauskas really hasn't fallen off nearly as much as you're implying. He started in 534 straight games before last season, and played about 10MPG less than what he was averaging those previous 7 seasons. He also missed a month of action due to the trade and buy-out (not surprisingly he shot below 40% for the remainder of the season, whereas before the trade he was around the 47-48% we're accustomed to seeing). Last year, besides TS% which was hit so hard because of the amount of change he had to adapt to, everything was pretty constant considering his usage..TRB%, Drtg, etc... Had Shaq not been signed to the team (which he shouldn't have been, they were better without him last year), I think Z would have given virtually the same production as the last 3-4 seasons.

 

I remember when I first started writing about basketball in 2007. That was the Cavs-Spurs Finals and Ilgauskas did a heroic job of defending Duncan the last two games of that series. He really made Duncan work, and his size and sheer mass really caused some problems. He stayed in front of Duncan, and this was before Duncan's decline. Centers now can face and go at will on Z. When you watch him, he just can't move anymore. It's been a precipitous drop and the numbers will catch up soon enough. He can hide in the regular season by standing near the basket and not moving, but that won't fly in the postseason.

 

Anyway, even though he's been on great rebounding teams before, in theory this team should be the very best. Z himself is a very solid rebounder, Bosh is a very good rebounder, Wade's a very good rebounder for his position, James is a great rebounder, Miller's a very good rebounder, Haslem is very good, and the list goes on and on. Against the likes of LA and Boston they shouldn't be getting killed on the boards. The Heat should be better on the boards than either the '09-'10 Cavs or Heat, and both those teams did well in the rebounding department (Cavs outrebounded both LA/Boston in the regular season and split the Boston series in rebounding 3-3, and the Heat generally held their own even though they had poor rebounding talent and were a bit undersized. Boston exposed them in the playoffs, but nontheless they were a pretty good rebounding squad).

 

Oh yeah, the Heat will rebound. I don't disagree with that. My point is that one of Ilgauskas' biggest strengths is that he's a pretty good offensive rebounder, but those are strengths that will probably be mitigated against a number of possible rivals. Zydrunas won't play catch with himself off the backboard against, say, the Lakers as often as he does in the regular season.

 

And I stand by my opinion that as long as he can stretch the defense and occasionally hit the jumper, he'll be a positive offensive addition. Even though Boston/LA/Orlando can make sharp rotations, you can't be in 2 places at once and eventually there will be give. In the past, teams could afford to stick on Z and force him to shoot over the defender because no one else on the Cavs besides LeBron could hurt them aside from spot-up jumpers. Against this year's Heat, you have arguably the best penetrators in the league at the SG/SF/PF positions. Z has enough range where teams will have a lot of trouble defending them, even if he's used simply as a decoy. As Wade showed in the post-season, even with little floor spacing and surrounding talent a defense like Boston's can be ripped apart with such elite slashing ability.

 

Wade forced a lot of penetrations last season (in many respects he had too--Spoelstra doesn't run much weak-side stuff and Wade isn't a great shooter, but Boston did a terrific job of choking off his screen/rolls and isolations. The Celtics weren't rushing out to make sure Jermaine O'Neal's jumpers were contested, and they probably won't do anything radical against Ilgauskas. They'll leave him to double, but most of these teams are committed enough to showing and recovering exceptionally well. I just don't think Ilgauskas will perform as well as he needs to.

[Erick Blasco]

I like the analysis but is the salary of the player and predicted PT considered when you make those grades? Hilton Armstrong is crap, but still, he didn't cost the Wizards much and at most he is going to play like 10 mins per game so really it's not so bad of a signing that it deserves a F. Maybe I am just thinking of these like school grades where F and A should be given only at the worst/best things, but I think those are two factors that should have a larger weighting on determining the grade.

 

Nope, this is strictly based on player and expected role. No contract info was used.