Are the Grizzlies doomed next season?

[La Bomba]

Seeing that both Randolph and Gasol are on contract year, and Gasol is going to get a big raise, and Randolph will probably get around the same amount of hefty money he was earning before, can the Grizzlies really afford to resign both these guys? Without them, it's back to rebuilding for the Grizzlies.

Edited November 1, 2010 by Sublime

[Real Deal]

Priority #1 is Gasol.

 

Randolph getting $17 million? If the Grizzlies go back to that, they deserve to rebuild. Plus, who knows how that will end up...the new CBA could ruin it for him.

 

With the way Arthur is playing (and it's only three games, but still), I wouldn't be too worried about Randolph at this point. Marc is the guy that needs to stay in Memphis.

[La Bomba]

I still don't ever see Arthur having the offensive production Randolph has had in Memphis. I agree that Gasol should be the No.1 priority seeing that he'll likely take the cheaper contract and he's only 25 or 26.

[Poe]

Keep Gasol and make him a higher option on offense and the primary post threat.

 

Replace Randolph with a player who does the dirty work and the "little things".

[Real Deal]

I still don't ever see Arthur having the offensive production Randolph has had in Memphis. I agree that Gasol should be the No.1 priority seeing that he'll likely take the cheaper contract and he's only 25 or 26.

Nah, he won't put up those numbers, but that's where Mayo comes into play. It's about time for OJ to step up. Losing Randolph means the Grizzlies will need an offensive threat to take over the games, and Mayo's phone is ringing off the hook.

 

Whether he does that or not, who knows...but he's got the talent.

[Poe]

The Grizzlies aren't in need of offensive threats. What they need is a stronger bench, complimentary pieces around Mayo, Gay, and Gasol, and overall a more balanced team. They also need a better staff and coaching.

Edited November 1, 2010 by Poe

[La Bomba]

One of the reasons the Grizzlies were so effective last season is because we had one of the best post duos in the league. We were a top rebounding team and one of the top teams (maybe first) in points in the paint.

 

It's been long enough. I don't see Mayo being anything past a shooter that averages a little over 20 PPG.

[Real Deal]

The Grizzlies aren't in need of offensive threats. What they need is a stronger bench, complimentary pieces around Mayo, Gay, and Gasol, and overall a more balanced team. They also need a better staff and coaching.

They aren't going to be the 2004 Pistons or the dynasty Spurs. If they want to contend, they need a true offensive threat, a second option (like Gay), a legit post that plays defense (Gasol) and solid role players.

 

Otherwise, they are going to need to start defending. Last season, they were 24th in opponent FG% and in the middle of the league in opponent 3PT%, 19th defensive rating, 13th offensive rating.

 

Second to last in assists, by the way, despite having six guys throwing up 12+ PPG, four with more than 10 FGA a game. They also turned the ball over more than 26 other teams in the league, threw a turnover every 1.2 assists.

 

Having a legit primary scoring option will spread the floor and open up passing lanes, drawing more doubles and making passing easier. More assists out of penetrations, better offense makes up for lackluster defense.

 

One or the other.

[Poe]

They aren't going to be the 2004 Pistons or the dynasty Spurs. If they want to contend, they need a true offensive threat, a second option (like Gay), a legit post that plays defense (Gasol) and solid role players.

 

They need to think about making the playoffs before thinking about putting together a championship team.

 

 

Otherwise, they are going to need to start defending. Last season, they were 24th in opponent FG% and in the middle of the league in opponent 3PT%, 19th defensive rating, 13th offensive rating.

 

Second to last in assists, by the way, despite having six guys throwing up 12+ PPG, four with more than 10 FGA a game. They also turned the ball over more than 26 other teams in the league, threw a turnover every 1.2 assists.

 

This is what I meant by complimentary pieces. They need defenders and ball movers, and a better coaching staff to put together a more fluid offense and more disciplined defense.

 

 

Having a legit primary scoring option will spread the floor and open up passing lanes, drawing more doubles and making passing easier. More assists out of penetrations, better offense makes up for lackluster defense.

 

They paid Gay to do that. He's not the best guy for it at this point, but unfortunately for the team, they've already committed to him. Gay is the first option. He has to be, or else the overblown contract is even closer to making 0 percent sense than it did before.

 

Mayo is another player that will become a legit scoring threat who shoots a high percentage from everywhere, and Gasol is becoming a very good physical presence down low that scores efficiently in the post, and is perhaps an underrated passer. The offense can be run through those three.

 

 

The Grizzlies' main issue is that they have too many initiators and not enough players that differ from the initiators. Basically, too many players who want the ball in their hands, and we've all heard the expression: there is only one basketball.

 

They need a dirty work, ball moving PF to replace Randolph this summer. Zach is an inefficient scorer that takes way too many shots, and doesn't play defense to make up for it. All they need is a player who rebounds, defends, and ideally, shoots the midrange J.

 

They also need a legit sixth man that can balance out the scoring in second unit. I personally believe it would be wise to utilize Mayo as a sixth man and start a shooter/ball mover/defender next to Gay, sort of like a Raja Bell.

 

And again, they need a better all around bench.

Edited November 1, 2010 by Poe

[Real Deal]

All contending primary options draw double teams at least a few times throughout a game.

 

Kobe Brant

Dwyane Wade

Kevin Durant

Dirk Nowitzki

Carmelo Anthony

Dwight Howard (highest PPG, they play through him as well)

 

It was the same way with Pierce a couple of years back.

 

Adding to that list, non-contenders...

 

Joe Johnson

Derrick Rose

Monta Ellis

Danny Granger

 

And the list goes on...and Rudy Gay is not on that level.

 

Memphis committed to him? Good. That doesn't mean they have to commit to him as a primary scoring option. They can go out and get one, if Mayo isn't going to do it, by any means necessary. Gay can go out and focus on his defense and second option scoring.

 

This team, with Gay as the primary option, will not go deep into the playoffs. Ever. They aren't Boston...they can't stack 15-18 PPG scorers and play some of the best defense in the last 20 years. The goal is to just make the playoffs? I don't see why that has to be the goal. Sounds like what the Raptors had in mind last season. One exceptional scorer, and suddenly, you can contend. Gay, Mayo, Gasol...all three guys you want to throw around an all-star level (or superstar level) player. You'll need to trade someone to get someone, of course, but you don't have to flip the ship, either.

 

Memphis' attendance is pathetic. They need an all-star or a superstar, a real leader. Gay and Mayo aren't going to do that for them.

[Poe]

And why can't Mayo, Gay, and Gasol lead a team with good complimentary pieces and an improved coaching staff?

Edited November 1, 2010 by Poe

[Real Deal]

And why can't Mayo, Gay, and Gasol lead a team with good complimentary pieces and an improved coaching staff?

Because they aren't Allen, Pierce and Garnett.

 

You're basically asking them to get new coaches and bring in new faces to replace anyone important minus those three.

 

I'm saying just get a scorer that will actually lead the team. If he's a two-guard, stick Mayo at the point and tell him how he's going to play. If it's a scoring four, make sure the team plays through him in the post.

 

The Grizzlies would deal Gay and Zach for Melo, quickly. They aren't stupid. Melo, Mayo and Gasol would be a contender. They can dangle Conley out there for someone like Varejao, start Tony Allen at the two and Mayo at the point, and become a defensive-minded team (Varejao, Gasol, Allen) with a primary scorer (Anthony) and a second option shooter (Mayo). Very similar make-up for contenders. Sign a couple of bench players (people would want to play on a team with a five like that). They contend with a five of Gasol, Varejao, Melo, Allen and Mayo, and all of a sudden, Memphis doesn't end up losing their team due to a league contraction.

[Real Deal]

Of course, easier said than done, but that should be the blueprint.

[Poe]

Well, the Grizzlies aren't getting Melo, and nobody is messing with Gay's contract unless he proves to be a legitimate #1 scoring option, which if he DOES prove that, the Grizzlies would have no reason to trade him. So in conclusion, the Grizzlies have to stick with what they committed to, which was making this team Gay's team, or at least attempt it.

 

 

As for everything you talked about with the role guys, the same thing can be done around Gay. They aren't getting a better first option. A big name free agent isn't signing there, and they aren't bad enough to tank either.

 

 

Also, Mayo can pass pretty well, but that doesn't make him a PG. His best position is at the 2, and I personally feel his best role for this team is off the bench like a Manu Ginobili or Jason Terry. Starting a defensive minded role player would provide more balance for the team, and would serve as a better complimentary wing player with Rudy Gay.

 

 

Having Allen and Pierce together for the Celtics works because they play differently. Allen works to get open looks off the ball, while Pierce does his work one on one with the ball on the perimeter and in the post.

 

Gay and Mayo both are most affective with the ball in their hands, as well as Gasol and Randolph. That's why the team doesn't generate assists, because the team lacks complimentary pieces. The talent and the size and rebounding is good enough to make the playoffs if they were located in the weaker Eastern Conference, but in order to make the best usage of each player, they need more feeders and ball movers.

 

 

Put Mayo on the bench and start a guy that can both space the floor and play defense. That will help make Rudy a more affective scorer. Have Mayo come off the bench and not only balance out the second unit, but give him a higher usage offensively where he doesn't have to fight for the ball with Gay and Gasol.

 

 

When Randolph is likely gone this summer and if Mayo is coming off the bench, that will increase the offensive usage for Gay and Gasol, meaning more touches and better offensive numbers. Mayo would have a better per-minute production with a higher usage off the bench. All three players are capable of increased roles.

 

With the three main offensive options in place, add players that fill the other elements needed for winning basketball. A rebounder at the starting 4, a defender at the starting 2, and a facilitator at the starting 1, which they have in Mike Conley.

 

 

Say for instance, a team like:

 

Mike Conley

Raja Bell

Rudy Gay

Udonis Haslem

Marc Gasol

 

With a bench of: OJ Mayo, Hasheem Thabeet, Darrell Arthur, Kyle Korver, Tony Allen

 

 

With quality coaching, that team would the playoffs in the West, which is the first goal. Then they can worry about upgrading certain pieces to become contenders.

[Real Deal]

LOL, you stuck Haslem in that five (replacing Zach), then say they are automatically a playoff team in the West? Korver shoots the ball just like Mayo does...no point in having two spot-up shooters on the bench when you don't have Nash, Paul, Deron or someone like LeBron.

 

Mayo off the bench? Memphis has no reason to do that. OJ is the most talented player on their roster today...he doesn't belong on their bench.

 

That team would lose Mayo through free agency, probably lose Gasol, and would be stuck with Gay, an old Haslem that can't score, Conley and a super-bust in Thabeet. Similar to what the Raptors dealt with because they figured they could build around someone that was not a legit primary scoring option.

 

But, okay.

[Poe]

You fail to look at it from an objective standpoint, or take note of what elements are being filled to create an all around balanced offensive attack with skillsets that compliment each other well, plus a defense that is both solid in the interior and exterior, plus the means to out-rebound many teams in the league.

 

 

It goes beyond the elementary "who's better than who".

Edited November 2, 2010 by Poe

[Real Deal]

You fail to look at it from an objective standpoint, or take note of what elements are being filled to create an all around balanced offensive attack with skillsets that compliment each other well, plus a defense that is both solid in the interior and exterior, plus the means to out-rebound many teams in the league.

I'm pretty sure I gave you a five that would contend, balanced better than your five (by miles). You can say, "Ah, well they won't get Melo," but the idea is to stick a scorer on the team, doesn't have to be a 30 PPG scorer, but a real primary option. Start Mayo (because he doesn't deserve the bench, do you even watch the Grizz?), and...well, I already posted all of it.

 

But, yeah, I didn't stick Haslem in there because I'm not obsessed with him. Replacing Zach Randolph with Haslem and Korver (and Raja Bell, who sucks) will not propel this team into the playoffs, especially when you move Mayo to the bench and bring BOTH shooters off the bench.

 

It goes beyond the elementary "who's better than who".

No [expletive]. You're telling us that Rudy Gay should be given a chance to be their primary scoring option, and no team will contend with Gay doing that. First step's first.

 

Here's what you said...

 

So in conclusion, the Grizzlies have to stick with what they committed to, which was making this team Gay's team, or at least attempt it.

Here's why you said it...

 

They paid Gay to do that. He's not the best guy for it at this point, but unfortunately for the team, they've already committed to him. Gay is the first option. He has to be, or else the overblown contract is even closer to making 0 percent sense than it did before.

Unfortunately, money doesn't make a player good enough to be a first-option scorer, and it's not mind-blowing if a team changes their direction (Orlando did it with Lewis, Memphis dealt Gasol because he wasn't a first option scorer, Houston dealt Ariza because of it, Minnesota found that out about Jefferson, Philly will eventually go this direction with Iggy, and there are plenty of other examples in recent years).

 

If Mayo doesn't step into that role and play it well, Memphis needs to find someone else that can. Nobody doubles the Grizzlies. Nobody needs to, unless they are suffering from injuries and playing bench players in their five.

 

Kobe, Pierce/Garnett, Duncan, Wade/Shaq, Kobe/Shaq, Jordan, Hakeem...champions see doubles. If Memphis wants to contend (because no borderline playoff team should be content with just snagging an eighth seed...ask Houston when they won their ring with the sixth seed), they will need to find someone better than Rudy Gay to lead their team deep into the playoffs, OR bring in one of the greatest defenses of all-time with clones of the younger Wallaces, Prince, and Larry Brown.

[Nitro]

Real Deal is right. Unless you have a legit #1 scoring option/guy that can attract double teams and consistently make plays for others, you are getting nowhere in this league. Balance and strong chemistry is also very important, but without that #1 guy, the ceiling for a team like that is 7th-8th seed tops, which is almost like purgatory (not good enough to get past the first round, and not bad enough to get a top 5 draft pick).

[The Lone Granger]

I agree with Real Deal as well. Here's what I think about the situation.

 

Gasol is the main concern, and it surprised me to see them give money to Conley now rather than Gasol. I'm pretty sure that they will be throwing whatever money they can muster Gasol's way. As for Randolph, he's a great player, but that $17M can be used to both help sign Gasol, and then the remainder can be used to pick up another solid big man. Their lineup would look like,

 

PG: Michael Conley

SG: O.J. Mayo

SF: Rudy Gay

PF: Free Agent/Darrell Arthur (if he keeps playing the way he has been).

C: Marc Gasol

 

Or even another thing to think about is what about Hasheem Thabeet? I know he hasn't turned out to what Memphis was hoping he'd be, but why not trying moving Gasol to the power forward slot, and throwing Thabeet in the lineup at center? Granted, the numbers he's been putting up so far in his career are not enough to call him a good option as a starter, but it is another possibility. If they go this route then they would be able to sign a very good backup big man that could step in and start if Thabeet doesn't work out.