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Chances of Rondo winning MVP?


AboveLegit
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Completely hypothetical situation, but I think it's an interesting topic.

 

Say the Celtics win 50+ games, and Rondo averages exactly what he's averaging right now (11PPG, 6RPG, 16APG). What are the chances of him winning the MVP award over a guy like Durant or Kobe?

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He's got too much help. I think it was a little different with Steve Nash, and at that time, there wasn't really anyone else contesting him for that MVP award (many argued that Shaq should've gotten it, but...really?).

 

It's really the same reason Kobe and Shaq never won more than one MVP. They played on the same team from 1996-2004.

 

If this was Rajon Rondo putting up these numbers, and winning 50+ games, with lesser teammates...well, that would be a different story, but when you have MVP candidates named Kobe, Durant, Howard, LeBron, Wade, CP3 and Andray Blatche, you're going to have to impress a little more.

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I think the arguement that his team is too talented has a lot of holes in it. Of course if Durant puts up 30PPG and his team gets a 1-4 seed in the West that it'll be his to lose, or if Paul leads the Hornets to 50+ games he'll be more deserving, but right now Rondo is playing out of his mind. Yes, he has one of the most talented and deep teams in the league, but he's the motor that makes it all work. Without Rondo, they are old, slow and have a bunch of former stars that can't carry a team anymore. He gives the team a spark that no one else on the team is capable of providing. At this point, even though a healthy (key word) KG is still a better player, Rondo is without a doubt the team's MVP.

 

With that said, the issue Rondo has in the MVP race is that he's not a top 10 player in the league, which IMO means he should not be league MVP. He's not even the best player at his position, which is another dagger to his chances. I still think he should be in consideration, but IMO the race will come down to Kobe, Paul, Durant and Howard (LeBron/Wade will cancel each other out). If Paul can get the Hornets to 50+ wins, I think he should be the favorite to win MVP.

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To clarify, I don't think their talent is making Rondo that much better, I just think that he will be overlooked because the media will still see Garnett, Pierce, Allen and even Shaq on the roster, and that changes everything for Rajon. Same with Kobe and Shaq, same with Wade and LeBron. I don't think the media sees Boston as an aging team after their nasty Finals run last season.

 

You say Paul should win the MVP if he leads the Hornets to 50+ wins. Boston will more than likely win more than that, with Rondo running the show. If he averages 16 assists per, that's not enough to win it over CP3? That 16 per is the most in NBA history, exceeding Stock's 14.5 APG.

 

Would you say Rondo could have a better chance of winning it if he were leading a Wolves team to 50+ wins?

 

There's a big difference there.

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To clarify, I don't think their talent is making Rondo that much better, I just think that he will be overlooked because the media will still see Garnett, Pierce, Allen and even Shaq on the roster, and that changes everything for Rajon. Same with Kobe and Shaq, same with Wade and LeBron. I don't think the media sees Boston as an aging team after their nasty Finals run last season.

 

Well, you listed LeBron, Wade and Kobe, who all have around/even more help than Rondo does on the Celtics, so I guess I took your comments more as you saying his teammates make Rondo that much better. If Kobe put up 26/5/5 (about what I expect him to average this season) and the Lakers win 61 games, while Rondo averages his 11/16/6 and the Celtics win 59 games, I'd say Rondo would be more worthy of being MVP. I am kind of prepping for the fact that Kobe, as long as he doesn't miss a ton of games, has an awesome chance at winning a lifetime achievement MVP award this season, so you may be right about the whole media thing. But I will say that last year, and definitely this year the media has recognized the Celtics as Rondo's team, so if he can keep it up and the Celtics win a whole lot of games, he has a strong chance.

 

You say Paul should win the MVP if he leads the Hornets to 50+ wins. Boston will more than likely win more than that, with Rondo running the show. If he averages 16 assists per, that's not enough to win it over CP3? That 16 per is the most in NBA history, exceeding Stock's 14.5 APG.

 

As I said, the fact that Paul is simply a better player than Rondo is a huge factor. Right now, as awesome as Rondo is playing, Paul is averaging 10 more points on 13% better TS%, more rebounds, and nearly 3 less TO's (only 1.3 TO's per game so far which is insane), while leading a far less talented team to an undefeated record. I also fully expect Paul's stats to go up even more as the season goes on, closer to the 23/11/6/3 that he averaged in 08-09.

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The media has been in love with big-time numbers + 50-win seasons when putting in their vote. Had Kobe won 50+ games when he averaged 35+ PPG, he would've gotten it.

 

If Rondo puts up 16 APG for an entire season, sets a record that not even Magic Johnson came close to...I'm pretty sure Rondo would win the MVP award over CP3 if the Celtics win more games than the Hornets.

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16 APG for an entire season would be mind-boggling... but I do think if he averages only 10-11 PPG that would be his downfall.

 

If he averages 10-11 PPG and 16 APG, and even if Celtics win 60 games, the MVP will go to someone else.

 

But if he averages 10-11 PPG and 16 APG, and Celtics somehow win 65+ games (which won't happen), the MVP will go to him.

 

 

The low PPG just won't cut it... if he can increase that to 15 PPG and average 16 APG then he's absolutely in the discussion.

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He's got too much help. I think it was a little different with Steve Nash, and at that time, there wasn't really anyone else contesting him for that MVP award (many argued that Shaq should've gotten it, but...really?).

 

It's really the same reason Kobe and Shaq never won more than one MVP. They played on the same team from 1996-2004.

 

If this was Rajon Rondo putting up these numbers, and winning 50+ games, with lesser teammates...well, that would be a different story, but when you have MVP candidates named Kobe, Durant, Howard, LeBron, Wade, CP3 and Andray Blatche, you're going to have to impress a little more.

lol wut?

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If this was Rajon Rondo putting up these numbers, and winning 50+ games, with lesser teammates...well, that would be a different story, but when you have MVP candidates named Kobe, Durant, Howard, LeBron, Wade, CP3 and Andray Blatche, you're going to have to impress a little more.

:lol:

 

Alright, how much did he pay you to make you type that? :P

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Rondo winning MVP would depend on a number of things. For one, he would have to be close to averaging a triple double, with at least 14 assists per game. The Celtics would also have to finish first in the East. I don't see Rondo averaging a near triple double, if his assist production doesn't regress, I do see him averaging close to 14 apg. I don't see Boston finishing with the best record in the East with the way Doc will pace the team. In addition, LeBron, Wade, Kobe and Durant will be the focus of the MVP race, and I could see it going to Durant.

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I can't say that I think he has a shot. Even if he continues to average those numbers, another point guard that you could put over him is Derrick Rose.

 

26.8 PPG, 10 APG, 4 RPG.

 

Those numbers are better in my opinion. And like people have been saying, Rondo has so much talent on his team with Allen, Pierce, and Garnett as well. While Rose does have Noah and Boozer, neither of those two are as capable as the help in Boston to take over a games scoring. Maybe that's just my opinion, but I think Rose would still win, and has the better shot to keep up the numbers. Also the other two guys I see having a shot at winning are Kevin Durant, and maybe even Brandon Roy like someone else mentioned. It's definitely an interesting thought about Rondo though, good thread.

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I can't say that I think he has a shot. Even if he continues to average those numbers, another point guard that you could put over him is Derrick Rose.

 

26.8 PPG, 10 APG, 4 RPG.

 

Those numbers are better in my opinion. And like people have been saying, Rondo has so much talent on his team with Allen, Pierce, and Garnett as well. While Rose does have Noah and Boozer, neither of those two are as capable as the help in Boston to take over a games scoring. Maybe that's just my opinion, but I think Rose would still win, and has the better shot to keep up the numbers. Also the other two guys I see having a shot at winning are Kevin Durant, and maybe even Brandon Roy like someone else mentioned. It's definitely an interesting thought about Rondo though, good thread.

Well, Rose doesn't have Boozer right now, so he has to take over some scoring right now, but when Boozer comes back, I think that PPG will drop.

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Well, Rose doesn't have Boozer right now, so he has to take over some scoring right now, but when Boozer comes back, I think that PPG will drop.

 

Yeahh but truth is, if we want to get the 3rd/4th seed then Rose will have to score over or equal to 20 points so the PPG won't drop by much. 20-10 and a team with around 50 wins definitely deserves some consideration for MVP.

 

Back to the topic, Rondo probably won't win MVP or be in the mix, but it's not his fault. He just got some darn good players around him.

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