BCS Outlook

[The Great iBoldin]

With pivotal games tomorrow (Oregon/Arizona, the Backyard Bowl and the Iron Bowl) and Saturday (OU/Okla. State, The Game, and LSU/Arkansas) the BCS will become a lot clearer. We see two championship games for BCS play-ins (Big 12 and SEC) and those two respective match-ups this weekend have potentially massive implications. So let's break it down.

 

PAC-10

 

Oregon will have guaranteed themselves a spot in the Rose Bowl at the very least if they beat Arizona as they'd win a share of the Pac-10 title with a team they beat. After Arizona they have the Civil War game with the Beavers, and even though the Ducks can't overlook the Wildcats, it's not guaranteed they're in the BCS NC Game yet. If the Ducks beat both the Cats and the Beavers they are all but guaranteed a spot in the NC Game.

 

The only way Stanford gets in as the PAC-10 winner is if they win outright. To do so they must beat Oregon State this weekend (no easy feat) and hope Oregon loses to both AZ and Or. State.

 

Big 12

 

Saturday's game between in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is the biggest game of the year for both teams. The winner goes on to face either Nebraska or Missouri. Simple.

 

Nebraska plays Colorado and Missouri plays Kansas. Both teams should win, but should Nebraska lose and Missouri win, Mizzou goes to the Big 12 title game. All Nebraska has to do is win and they're in.

 

None of these teams will go to the BCS National Championship, so this game is likely for the Fiesta Bowl or potentially the Orange Bowl, which I'll break down later. But it's likely the Fiesta Bowl.

 

Big East

 

The Big East is an absolute abomination of a conference and doesn't deserve an AQ bid, but that's the way she goes. Tomorrow's Backyard Bowl between Pitt and WVU is these two teams Big East Championship Game, so to speak. UConn is in the hunt but it'll likely come down to these two teams. WVU plays Pitt then Rutgers and Pitt plays WVU and Cincinnati, so if everything goes down smoothly, the winner of tomorrow mornings show down goes to either the Orange Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl (likely the Orange).

 

But like I said, UConn is in the hunt and actually holds most of the cards. They play Cincinnati (4-6) and USF (6-4) to end the season and could potentially go to 5-2 in the Conference. Now, if that DOES happen, and the following also happens:

 

- WVU beats Pitt and there is a 3-way tie atop the conference at 5-2.

- Pitt beats WVU but loses to Cincinnati.

 

Then UConn wins the title. Shocking that Connecticut, not even ranked in the top 25 all year, would go to a BCS game over perhaps Stanford, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. But all Pitt has to do to get in is beat WVU and Cincinnati.

 

Big 10

 

A messy situation. If all three of the leaders (Wisconsin, OSU and Michigan State) win out, we have a tie atop the Big 10. Which would normally be easy to figure out, except Michigan State doesn't have Ohio State scheduled this year. Therefore it makes it a lot harder to notice.

 

After breaking down the Big 10's tiebreaker rules it seems as if Wisconsin will win the Big 10 and a trip to the Rose Bowl at the very least if they win out. It makes it easy if one of these three teams lose. If Wisconsin loses, Ohio State goes. If Ohio State loses (Michigan upset?) Michigan State goes. If Michigan State loses, Wisconsin goes.

 

The tiebreaker rules are as follows:

 

If there is still a tie, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative.

If more than two teams tie for the championship, the same selection procedures shall be followed with the following exceptions:

If three teams are tied, and if one team defeated both of the other teams, then that team shall be the representative.

If three teams are still tied, and if two of the three teams defeated the third team, the third team is eliminated, and the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.

If three teams are still tied, and there is a tie game between two of the three teams, or if two or all three of the teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage basis of all games played.

If three teams are still tied, and one of the three teams is eliminated through the percentage basis of all games played, the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.

If three teams are still tied, and all three teams have the same winning percentage of all games played, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative.

 

Wisconsin is the highest ranked in the BCS at No. 7 (OSU at 8, MSU at 10) so they're likely to go through.

 

SEC

 

Fairly simple. Auburn plays South Carolina.

 

ACC

 

Another conference perhaps not deserving of an AQ spot this year. Let's look at the Atlantic division as that's the whole one with implications left.

 

- If North Carolina State beats Maryland on Saturday, they will play Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game.

- If North Carolina State loses, Florida State plays VT.

 

Maryland just loses out. If Florida State was 5-3 Maryland could've played to get in. But oh well.

 

-------------------------

 

 

So those are your AQ conferences broken down. Let's look at what the BCS shake down will look like most likely.

 

Rose Bowl

 

If Oregon wins out it makes the Rose Bowl committee make a decision. As it stands, they have to choose a non-AQ team within the next four years (as I understand the rule) so this may be the best year to do it with the power of Boise/TCU and the absence of a Pac-10 Champion. The other option is Stanford. Stanford is interesting because they aren't exactly a football powerhouse but they are marketable, a California team and have a lot of power both academically and athletically (overall).

 

My Prediction: Big 10 Champion Wisconsin v. At-Large Boise State

- Do I like it? No, I hate it. But I think the Rose Bowl committee realizes that they do have to take a non AQ qualifier in the next four years and Boise State has a very solid talent pool. May as well give them a shot. However, Wisconsin matches up very well with Boise State in all facets of the game. If Boise State can't beat Wisconsin, a BCS Bowl will likely never take them as a BCS team ever again unless a playoff is instituted. This is the real deal for Boise State. I think there will be a lot of interesting build up to this game if it does indeed happen. Wisconsin would have a lot of of pressure to win and win big. I don't think Stanford is exactly a popular enough team yet, but Andrew Luck could certainly give Stanford a chance to win.

 

Sugar Bowl

 

With the Sugar Bowl selecting the first BCS teams in the order (Sugar, Orange, Fiesta) it'll get a nice selection of what they want. Contractually obligated to take an SEC team, LSU is likely the team fulfilling that obligation. If Alabama beats Auburn, the winner of the SEC game will likely be in the Sugar Bowl as there is no team to play in the NCG. If Auburn wins they are likely in if they bear SCar.

 

Again, picking first gives them the best to choose from. The Rose Bowl will have the Big 10 winner either way, so it makes it easy for the Sugar Bowl to choose from. Ohio State, Boise State, TCU, Stanford and even Missouri/OK State/OU are conceivable.

 

My Prediction: SEC #2 Louisiana State v. B10 #2 Ohio State

- Makes sense. A huge money making game with two of the most respected programs in the land. Both teams travel well and it's Ohio States chance to make another statement in a bowl game. Both teams match up surprisingly well so this could be a potentially great game.

 

Orange Bowl

 

Usually the ACC is tied in with the Orange Bowl (8 of the last 10 involves ACC, including the NC Game before the NC Game actually was (USC/OU)). So you'll likely see the winner of NCSU/FSU/VT. After that is where it begins to get a little more tricky then we expect.

 

The Big East has played in 3 games since 2007. So it seems as if the winner of the Big East (Pitt/WVU/UConn) will likely join the ACC in this game. The exception is the potential for an At-Large team or if the Big East is chosen for another bowl, perhaps the Fiesta.

 

There is potential for a team such as TCU. They aren't the glamorous team between them and Boise State, and they could be passed over for other at large teams that would bring in more revenue like Ohio State/LSU. I doubt this may happen, but it's indeed a possibility to consider.

 

My Prediction: ACC Champion Virginia Tech v. At-Large TCU

- If Boise gets in, TCU needs to as well, and vice versa. I think TCU would give VT all they got in the very least, maybe enough for an upset. I don't think VT is very good so it's a good chance for TCU to make a big statement, a "[expletive] you" to the BCS.

 

Fiesta Bowl

 

Likely the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game and an at large bid, the Fiesta Bowl is also the site of the National Championship game. It's always nice when a city gets two doses of great football.

 

I believe Nebraska and Oklahoma State will play for the game. I just don't believe in Oklahoma this year. And I really like Nebraska's defense. Bo Pelini may come off as a douchebag but he knows his Goddamn football. TCU is a potential buy in, as is both Boise State and Ohio State.

 

My Prediction: Big 12 Champion Nebraska v. Big East Champion Pittsburgh

- Fiesta gets stuck with a fairly bland match up with mediocre Pittsburgh as the left overs, the "sloppy seconds". Nebraska would murder Pittsburgh as well is what I'm afraid of. Not good for money or ratings.

[The Great iBoldin]

It's a little clearer now. Of the AQ conference championships, SEC, ACC and the Big 12 have to essentially play a play-in game for a BCS Bowl. Oklahoma/Nebraska, VT/FSU, Auburn/SCar play for these BCS bowls (in Auburn's case, the NC Game).

 

How I see it breaking down BCS poll wise

 

1 Auburn

2 Oregon

3 TCU

4 Stanford

5 Wisconsin

 

NC Game: Oregon v. Auburn

Sugar: Arkansas v. Ohio State

Rose: Wisconsin v. TCU (Non-AQ Bull)

Orange: Virginia Tech v. Stanford

Fiesta: Nebraska v. West Virginia

[Lkr]

Does the Rose Bowl have to take a non AQ this year? If not, I'd see them taking Stanford as they try to preserve the traditional Big 10/PAC 10 matchup, and with both conferences expanding, who knows what will happen next year.

[The Great iBoldin]

I've read conflicting reports that say they do and don't. I read one source saying it has to be within four years but not necessarily this year, but then I read another source that as long as their is a Pac-10 champion playing in the BCS then they have to take a non-AQ in the Rose Bowl (TCU).

 

I, too think it'd be smart to keep Stanford to preserve it as well. Plus it's a great match up of two smash mouth pro style offenses.

Edited November 28, 2010 by iBoldin

[The Great iBoldin]

Final predictions:

 

NC Game: 1 Auburn v. 2 Oregon

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. TCU

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State v. Arkansas

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v. UConn

[ballorama]

I think the NC title game will be great. I really wanna see a high scoring affair.. but another matchup that looks pretty good is Arkansas vs Ohio State.

[Flash]

How ugly will that OU vs. UCONN game get?

[Guest STL10]

How ugly will that OU vs. UCONN game get?

 

I bet it will be closer than you think.

 

People were probably asking the same question when OU played Boise that one faithful year...

[Lkr]

Final predictions:

 

NC Game: 1 Auburn v. 2 Oregon

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. TCU

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State v. Arkansas

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v. UConn

close, but Oregon will be #1

[The Great iBoldin]

close, but Oregon will be #1

 

Perhaps, but I doubt it considering Auburn blew South Carolina out of the water in a Championship game and already lead the BCS Standings as it is. But you never know.

[Lkr]

Perhaps, but I doubt it considering Auburn blew South Carolina out of the water in a Championship game and already lead the BCS Standings as it is. But you never know.

The coaches poll went to Oregon, pretty much ensuring them the #1 spot

[Flash]

I bet it will be closer than you think.

 

People were probably asking the same question when OU played Boise that one faithful year...

 

Boise had a high octane offense and went undefeated IIRC. This is a conservative UCONN team that went 8-4 and just won the Big East.

[Lkr]

Auburn is now the confirmed #1 BCS team

[Cobb]

Auburn is now the confirmed #1 BCS team

It will make Oregon's win even sweeter.