Observations Through 40 Games

[Nitro]

So, after 40 games, the team is 30-10, winning 21 of the last 23. Statistically, they have been the most dominating team in the league, ranking in the top 3 on both offense and defense, and first in point differential. I've seen almost all of their games this season, and every game since the middle of their 12 game win streak. So, below are my observations so far, both the good and bad...

 

The Good:

 

-LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. They've proven they are the best duo in the league, and in the last 20 games or so have developed a good chemistry. Even though a lot of times they 'take turns' taking over the ballgame, they've gotten a lot better at playing to each other's tendencies. For example, when LeBron drives to the rim now, Wade will make a strong cut to the basket from the 3pt line, which has been a very efficient play the last few weeks. Another play is when Wade will dribble around the screen, hand-off to LeBron at the top of the screen, and that often will open up driving lanes for LeBron, who is not as adept to getting to the rim off isolation as Wade is. They are playing very efficient, effective basketball. They are two of the most consistent superstars in the league, and now that they've finally hit their groove, it is very rare you will see many nights from either player where they shoot like 4-18 from the field. That will make them a handful all season long, and will force the bad/average teams to play out of their minds to beat the Heat.

 

-Chris Bosh. After about 10-15 games he finally started to his his groove, and of the three stars he found the coziest niche in the offense. He's usually automatic when he's got room on his jumper, and his effectiveness off the dribble is impressive as well. The last few games I've noticed him taking players in the post with his back to the basket, which is a little wrinkle I never noticed in his game before. His rebounding is still a little disappointing, and he needs to play tougher defensively against back-to-the-basket post players, but he's doing a real solid job with his team defense.

 

-Team defense. When this team wants to lock you down, they do an awesome job. LeBron and Wade, when they are engaged, are everywhere defensively, cutting off passes, forcing turnovers, making weak-side blocks, cutting off driving lanes; they can be dominant. Joel Anthony, against quicker big men, is phenominal. Defensively, he reminds me of Chuck Hayes, who is aggressive against those type of big men, and has the athleticism and quickness to not be beat easily off the dribble. Z and Dampier are both big bodies that change shots around the rim, James Jones has done a tremenous job drawing charges, Chalmers can create turnovers and generally be a pest (although he goes over screens too often, which often leads to dribble penetration which can be a problem), and overall they have very good team defensive principles.

 

-Ability to close-out games. Forget the last few minutes of ball-games, where the Heat have two of the best finishers in the game. In the 2nd half, the Heat do a great job of wearing out teams, turning up the energy, and really beating a team down. Since the win streak started, it's been very, very rare for the Heat to give up big leads like they were earlier in the year, and if they do they eventually choke you out with their star power and defense.

 

-3pt shooting. The last few games have been a bit of struggle from deep, but for the year they have been very good from beyond the arc. They are currently 6th in the league in 3pt% at 38.1%, and that is without their best 3pt shooter, Mike Miller. Carlos Arroyo and James Jones have been lights-out this season from 3, with Arroyo shooting 48% from deep this season, and Jones netting 73 3PM so far this season.

 

-Transition offense. They don't run often, but when they do they are highly successful. They could really use a good PG to make their fastbreak offense that much better, but as it is LeBron and Wade are nearly impossible to stop in transition, and Jones has been effective

 

 

The Bad:

 

-Joel Anthony. He hustles, makes quick defensive rotations, is a good weak-side shot blocker, and knows his limitations. However, he has many limitations. First off, he's 6'9'', and 240lbs (and that may be generous), so he's at a major size disadvantage. Underneath the basket against legitimately sized big men he is unable to provide much resistance. That leads me to the second point; he's one of the worst rebounding C's in the league, and probably the worst of those who play significant minutes. He doesn't box out well, doesn't have much jumping abiliy, and against legit C's they either simply reach over his head to grab the rebound, or will tip it over and over until they either get the basket, or tip the ball out to a teammate. What's more, he has tiny hands and no offensive repetoire, so he's completely useless on that end besides setting screens. If you go to 82games.com and look at how the team performs with him on the floor compared to Z and Dampier, and it is crystal clear that he should not be playing the kind of minutes Spo gives him.

 

-Carlos Arroyo. He makes open jumpers at a blistering rate and doesn't turn the ball over. In other words, he generally won't make the kind of mistakes that will lose a game. However, he cannot hit a jumper with a hand in his face, he doesn't take the kind of chances that lead to 'impact plays', and his defense is awful. He has little lateral quickness, and constantly is blown by. He has little strength or size, so bigger PG's absolutely abuse him in the post, and around the rim. He's a really solid backup PG, but like Anthony should NOT be seeing the kind of minutes he gets. Unfortunately, Chalmers isn't way better, and he as well shouldn't be a starting PG, so they don't have many options here.

 

-Erik Spoelstra. I applaud him for keeping it cool when the team was 9-8 and the whole 'LeBron bump' thing was a big story, and I think he's done a very good job with getting the team prepared defensively, but he is awful with rotations, and doesn't have the confidence in himself to make adjustments on the fly. Much like Arroyo, he plays it safe by sticking with robotic rotations and not doing anything that will make a big impact on the game from a coaching standpoint. His love-affair with Anthony really is a detriment to the team, as was his inclination to play the Haslem/Bosh frontcourt for major minutes to make sure Haslem got his burn. Spo seemed to turn a corner when he started to get the team to run and gave Chalmers/Dampier minutes, but he's reverted back to some of his old habits, and still needs to take more chances with such a dynamic roster.

 

-Roster depth. We all knew it going in, but outside of the Big 3, the team lacks depth with talent. Things will be a lot better once Mike Miller gets back into form, and if he returns and is used properly, Udonis Haslem will be a huge addition as well. But as awesome a luxory it is to be able to have 3 players combine for 90% of your points and win the game against a +.500 ballclub, that is walking a dangerously fine line once they meet Boston or Orlando in a 7-game series.

 

-Slow starts. It's pretty amazing to me that, even during the last 23 games, almost EVERY single game they start off slow. It's almost automatic; they come out with little energy, their defense gets burned, and on offense they appear to simply be going through the motions. Wade is really the only one who comes out of the gate with an aggressive attitude, but once again, they are walking a fine line that could cost them in the post-season. I know the Big 3 are rhythm players, which means they are naturally better finishers than starters, but they can't expect to simply blow teams out in the 2nd halves of games. Against the great teams with comparable talent, they will get burned doing this. With that said, I do think come playoff time that Wade and LeBron (and maybe Bosh) will come out of the gates looking to put teams away early, so this trend may or may not be something to be concerned about, but it's worth noting.

 

 

 

 

Overall, this team is great, but they need Miller and Haslem back somewhat healthy and in a rhythm come playoff time for them to knock off the Celtics in a 7-game series IMO. A lot of the things they need to improve on are in Spo's hands. It's a lot of pressure for a 3rd year coach, but he's going to have to learn to make better on-the-fly adjustments, and will have to start working Miller back into the lineup soon.

[Check my Stats]

How do you suggest Mike Miller be used 'properly'? I still don't see him having a role much beyond a spot up shooter.

[Real Deal]

Pretty accurate.

 

While Chalmers isn't a capable starter, I still like him over Arroyo. The Heat were getting lit by the elite point guards, and I think it's better that they choose to give the bulk of the minutes to Chalmers just because he's a better defensive player.

 

And I definitely agree with Anthony. The dude doesn't do much the majority of his time on the floor. I don't think Dampier can be productive for an entire season, either, but he would still produce more. Maybe they are saving him for the second half of the year, or the playoffs?

[Real Deal]

How do you suggest Mike Miller be used 'properly'? I still don't see him having a role much beyond a spot up shooter.

That's probably it. I don't see Miller ever handling the ball, and his defensive impact won't be that significant.

[The Truth]

we definitely need to improve at the point guard position this offseason. Chalmers and Arroyo both become free agents and Eddie House isn't going to get it done. I could see us using the MLE on TJ Ford and letting House back him up off the bench.

 

I think a lot of people are underrating the loss of Haslem as well. if they had him last night, they probably would have won against the Clippers. Griffin was just schooling the Heat defenders and I hate to say it, but Anthony and Howard really aren't that good anymore. once we get Haslem back, we should be much improved off the bench.