Assists: An Overrated Stat?

[Bulls N' Bears]

I’ve always kinda thought this.. but I didn’t give it too much thought until about 2 months ago while watching the Celtics/Bucks game. I usually don’t look at the box score on the computer while watching a game, but this time I had my laptop with me and the box score was open to the C’s/Bucks game. Closer to the end of that game, Kevin Garnett was standing up close to the 3pt. Line and rondo passed him the ball. Just a simple pass… KG pump faked his defender, took a dribble and spun passed him.. when he got near the rim, he went up, got fouled and kinda hung in the air and made the shot. As I looked down on my computer screen to see how many points KG had that game, the page refreshed itself and I saw that Rondo got credited an assist on that play. Now tell me, how the hell is that an assist? Rondo did absolutely nothing to help KG make that shot. He gave him the ball, and KG made like 2-3 moves before putting up the shot. If KG had taken the shot once he got the pass from Rondo, then yeah I would get why that was an assist. But a pass, then KG doing his own thing creating his own shot and rondo getting an assist? I thought the statistician might have made an error.

 

Nope.

 

Every game I have watched since then, I have been trying to pay attention to those kinds of plays… and the guys making that pass usually did get the assist.

 

You know what that reminded me of? A quarterback throwing a 2-yard screen pass to his running back. The running back breaks a few tackles and runs 60 yards for the TD. The QB really didn’t do anything there. A 10 year old can complete a 2-yard screen pass. But the completion and the yards show up on the QB’s stat sheet as well even though he really didn’t do anything. Same in basketball. The passer will make a simple pass to his teammate. His teammate does all the work and scores [like KG], but the passer gets credit for the assist. Idk why a player would get credit for that assist though. he really didn’t do ANYTHING.

 

Now to the passes that I actually do consider an assist: A PG standing there at the top of the 3 pt. Line. He calls a play. His teammates are working hard to get open.. one of them gets open and the PG passed him the ball. But it’s a very basic pass.. maybe even a short one.. like 10 feet. As his teammate catches the ball, his defender is running at him.. but the player gets off a tough shot with a man in his face. So he gets the basket and the PG gets the assist. Is that a legitimate assist? Yes. But again, what did the PG really do there? Nothing really.. just passed the ball to the guy the play was designed for and that player made the shot. The pass wasn’t special, and sometimes the shot isn’t special. But the player shooting that ball did a lot more work than the guy passing it.

 

When you’re watching a game, do you sit there and say “wow, what a pass.” When a player/PG makes that kinds pass? Hell no. Why? Cuz the pass was something ordinary and not special at all. But if the guy shooting the ball, you’ll say “wow what a shot.”

 

Passes that turn into assists that show the true meaning of an assist to me:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgBxefhGaNs

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfceQCcsia8&feature=fvsr

 

 

you get what I’m talking about. Also, driving to the rim and drawing the defense and finding a man on the outside is a great assist. Ally-oops are nice assists. Etc. But a basic short pass to a open man requires no skill… or not a lot of skill.

 

So my point is.. if you don’t watch a game and look at the box score when the game is over and see that a player got over ten assists that game, you think “wow he had a great game!!” even if he didn’t score much. But if you watched that same game, you really wouldn’t have that reaction because 8 out of the 13 assist that player had wasn’t really anything to brag about.

 

Points, rebounds, assists, blocks, etc. are things to brag about though. If a guy has 15+ rebounds in a game, you know he worked hard for most of those. If a guy has 30+ points, you know he was working for those points. Same with steals and blocks. But with assists… a player doesn’t really do much most of the time. [unless it’s like those plays I showed above + some]

 

So I’m not discrediting players that get a lot of assists.. I’m saying that people kinda blow It up when a guy gets a lot of assists when really, a lot of those assists were nothing special.

[Nitro]

Well, to comment on the idea that certain plays that are counted as assists shouldn't be counted, or have little value, I agree. At the same time, however, assists are [generally] awarded equally among players, so assists do have legitimacy for statistical comparison since there is an even plane. The fact that the great passers at each position do tend to have their passing quantified by assists does give the stat some substance. However, there are players who get their assists due to ball dominance, so with those players you have to factor in usage and role in the offense when making a comparison.

 

But, to answer the question, I don't think it's necessarily an overrated stat, it's just that passing is the hardest area of the game to quantify. There is so much grey area in what qualifies as an assist, and in box score stats it's hard to tell the assist's quality (if the player was open, if the pass was on target, if there was sufficient time on the shot clock, etc...)

[Bulls N' Bears]

Well, to comment on the idea that certain plays that are counted as assists shouldn't be counted, or have little value, I agree. At the same time, however, assists are [generally] awarded equally among players, so assists do have legitimacy for statistical comparison since there is an even plane. The fact that the great passers at each position do tend to have their passing quantified by assists does give the stat some substance. However, there are players who get their assists due to ball dominance, so with those players you have to factor in usage and role in the offense when making a comparison.

 

But, to answer the question, I don't think it's necessarily an overrated stat, it's just that passing is the hardest area of the game to quantify. There is so much grey area in what qualifies as an assist, and in box score stats it's hard to tell the assist's quality (if the player was open, if the pass was on target, if there was sufficient time on the shot clock, etc...)

 

what I mean is...

 

let's say a pg or a player playing any other position has the ball... he's just standing there dribbling it... the other 4 players are running around trying to get open... one of them does... but the one player that gets open happens to be like 6 feet away from the player that has the ball. The player with the ball passes it to him for a shot. The shot goes in. was that an assist? yes. but was the pass difficult to make? no. But some players have games with 10 passes like that, that lead to assists.. then people talk about how great of a game that player had even though what he did wasn't that hard.

 

If you watch the game.. most of those assists go unnoticed... but if you didn't watch the game and just look at the box score, people react like "wow! this guy is a good passer!!"

 

u know what I mean?

[AboveLegit]

While you bring up an interesting point that has been magnified due to Rondo being credited for assists he didn't make, you seem to be downplaying the significance of the assist far too much. By using your logic, I can also say the majority of rebounds centers get are fairly easy as well. Half the time they are not working for them and are getting them because they are right near the basket or no one is near the ball.

 

The same could be said about blocks as well. Does it really show how great of a defender that player is? Right now JaVale McGee is second in blocks per game, but is he really a top 3 defender at his position? Right now I'm having a hard time considering him as a good defender...

 

And you can also say scoring is a bit overrated in certain instances. In the year prior to LeBron being drafted, Ricky Davis averaged 20PPG. But would you consider him a good scorer or merely a product of the system he was in?

 

Regardless, every great team needs players that are able to initiate the offense, keep everyone involved, and above all else (if he's really the most important cog in your offense) find the absolute best avenue to score (if that requires him to score then so be it). So no, I would not consider assists as an overrated stat.

[Bulls N' Bears]

While you bring up an interesting point that has been magnified due to Rondo being credited for assists he didn't make, you seem to be downplaying the significance of the assist far too much. By using your logic, I can also say the majority of rebounds centers get are fairly easy as well. Half the time they are not working for them and are getting them because they are right near the basket or no one is near the ball.

 

The same could be said about blocks as well. Does it really show how great of a defender that player is? Right now JaVale McGee is second in blocks per game, but is he really a top 3 defender at his position? Right now I'm having a hard time considering him as a good defender...

 

And you can also say scoring is a bit overrated in certain instances. In the year prior to LeBron being drafted, Ricky Davis averaged 20PPG. But would you consider him a good scorer or merely a product of the system he was in?

 

Regardless, every great team needs players that are able to initiate the offense, keep everyone involved, and above all else (if he's really the most important cog in your offense) find the absolute best avenue to score (if that requires him to score then so be it). So no, I would not consider assists as an overrated stat.

 

 

yup. Rebounds for big men can be easy. Same as blocks... because most of them come against guards. Therefore a bunch of rebounds and blocks in game for a big man can be seen as overrated as well.

 

now if a guard gets 10 rebounds or 4 blocks.. is that impressive? yes.

 

but you were getting to what I was eventually going to say... and that's that stats in general are pretty overrated... most of them are anyway.

 

the things that don't count most are the things that don't show up on the stat sheet.

 

but for now, I'm focusing on assists.

[Universe]

Great post but gotta disagree. Sometimes the pass is pretty much the basket. Add that with the fact that sometimes a rebound can be completely easy as it just pops out to the dude but that's what basketball is more than just stats.

[Nitro]

what I mean is...

 

let's say a pg or a player playing any other position has the ball... he's just standing there dribbling it... the other 4 players are running around trying to get open... one of them does... but the one player that gets open happens to be like 6 feet away from the player that has the ball. The player with the ball passes it to him for a shot. The shot goes in. was that an assist? yes. but was the pass difficult to make? no. But some players have games with 10 passes like that, that lead to assists.. then people talk about how great of a game that player had even though what he did wasn't that hard.

 

If you watch the game.. most of those assists go unnoticed... but if you didn't watch the game and just look at the box score, people react like "wow! this guy is a good passer!!"

 

u know what I mean?

 

As ABL mentioned, many stats can be inflated by the ease of the play. If points didn't have FG% as a backing, you wouldn't be able to tell if the player had a good or bad game scoring the ball; for example, if Player A shoots 11-30 to get 30pts, while Player B shoots 11-16 to get 30pts, you wouldn't be able to tell who had the better game just by looking at the points. Assists don't have this elaboration in the box score, although sites like 82games and Synergy Sports have other passing stats that help elaborate on the assist's quality.

 

But as I said, I believe in the law of averages. Meaning, the truly great passers will end up with high assist averages, while the poor ones won't. Coaches will put the great passers in a position to make plays for teammates, while they won't do the same for poor passers. Therefor, it's hard for me to call it an overrated stat. There are also players who get high number of assists off usage, so I tend to blend passing/ballhandling/ability to create shots into a term called 'playmaking'. That's why I'd call a PG who is an excellent, pure passer who may not be able to create teammates easy looks an equal playmaker to a guy like Dwyane Wade, who can force defensive attention which frees up his teammates, giving them open looks.

[Makaveli]

Actually they sort of are IMO. Watching Kobe (who averages about 4.5 apg) is really really often making a pass that leads to an assist just because he sees the play before it goes down. Just by doing that Bryant would average about 8 apg. That Rondo thing is all really strange too, i wonder when will NBA (if they ever) start looking into this.

[AboveLegit]

yup. Rebounds for big men can be easy. Same as blocks... because most of them come against guards. Therefore a bunch of rebounds and blocks in game for a big man can be seen as overrated as well.

 

now if a guard gets 10 rebounds or 4 blocks.. is that impressive? yes.

 

but you were getting to what I was eventually going to say... and that's that stats in general are pretty overrated... most of them are anyway.

 

the things that don't count most are the things that don't show up on the stat sheet.

 

but for now, I'm focusing on assists.

Well here's the thing about things we can't see (intangibles), it can influence things we can see. Although defense doesn't have an accurate statistical measure, we can still evaluate defense right?

 

All of the intangibles I care about come through some how. KG's passion comes through in his defense and his night in, night out consistency. We can measure these things.

 

Kobe's determination comes through in all the injuries he plays through.

 

The thing about intangibles is that they're only intangible at sort of the surface level. You want to know how we can evaluate, say, Larry Bird's Basketball IQ? Well, starting with the knowledge that he wasn't exactly the most athletic guy, we look at his steals per game. Now, how does a six nine forward who isn't lightning fast average almost 2 steals a game? Basketball IQ. How does a forward end up 3rd on the all time assists list for non guards? Same thing.

 

The thing to me is that the intangibles often end up being tangible, you feel me?

 

And I suppose stats are somewhat overrated, but I feel the need to qualify things to an extent. I do my best to be informed of their limitations. So defensive guys, hustle guys, I KNOW it under ranks them, and I try to adjust accordingly. But if something I notice anicdotally conflicts with something a stat clearly shows, I've done enough statistical measurement exercises to trust the numbers. I KNOW I can notice things incorrectly.

[Real Deal]

Big question here: do you play basketball, and if so, what level of play?

 

I've played against a few players that are D1 level, one that nearly made the Tulsa 66ers D-League team, and a few that could've probably played D1 ball. This is all outside of HS, in tournaments or in rec leagues.

 

Passes that seem to be basic...they are very hard to make. When I'm at the top of the key, I'm looking at four different players. Sometimes, I know who's going to cut...but I didn't draw up the defensive scheme for our opponents, so I have to read the defense while I run a play.

 

I've thrown plenty of passes, some that you would probably call basic and very easy to make, that have been picked off out of nowhere because I didn't throw the ball hard enough, or I was a second too late and didn't see the defensive rotation.

 

To top it off, I'm a scorer...so my mentality is to score first, pass second. It's a good thing when I make a pass that leads to a bucket.

 

Finally...to give another instance of how important the timing of passes are...have you ever lead the break? You hold the ball long enough to catch a defender's eye, then you dish it out at the perfect time (even a basic chest pass) to lead your man to the rim for an uncontested shot. A late pass could be picked off, and an early pass could stop the break.

 

I won't comment on the first example because that wasn't an assist (shouldn't have been one, anyway)...but a true assist is important to the game, in many ways...whether it's on the break, in a half court set (most point guards in the league have trouble making the post entry pass), in a run and gun, or any set or situation on offense.

[Bulls N' Bears]

yes... I have played PG/SG for many year. Since I was ten to be exact.

 

After high scool basketball... I just play street ball in Chicago. If you know anything about street ball in chicago, you would know that there is no such thing as an open man. :o

 

Unless I drove to the basket, drew attention and kicked it out to an open man for a bucket.. I didn't feel like my pass did much. Or if I had a cross court pass to an open man, etc.

 

If I just stood there, called a play and watched my guys fight to get open... and all I had to do was give them a simple pass... I didn't feel like it was hard at all. They did a lot more work than I did. They worked to get open AND made the shot. All I did was give the a pass from 8 feet away. That isn't hard at all.

 

and I wasn't talking about passes on the break.. Those to me are pretty good assists cuz the guy with the ball is actually doing something to me... not just standing there, calling a play that the coach probably told them to run at TO, and pass it to a guy who worked to get open.