Kobe is clutch? Think again

[Multi-Billionaire]

Ask pundits. Ask general managers. Ask players. Ask almost anybody.

 

Who would like to have take the last shot with the game on the line?

 

Kobe Bryant wins by a country mile. Every time. (In a general manager poll this season, he earned 79% of the vote, his ninth consecutive blowout.)

 

There is not really any other serious candidate.

 

Ask me, though, (as Ryen Russillo did last week and Mike Trudell the other day) and I'll tell you I don't know who's the best, but with all due respect to Bryant's amazing abilities scoring the ball, there's zero chance he's the king of crunch time.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/24200/the-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time

 

 

 

With the game on the line

 

Trailing by one or two points, or tied, in the final 24 seconds of regular season and playoff games since 1996-1997, with a minimum of 30 shots. From Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information.

 

 

Kobe Bryant is 36 of 115 (31.3%) when Lakers trail by 1-2 pts or tied, in the final 24 secs, good for 25th in the L.

 

Carmelo ranks 1st with 21 of 44 (47.7%) when Nuggets trail by 1-2 pts or tied, in the final 24 secs.

Edited January 29, 2011 by Multi-Billionaire

[Nitro]

I think Kobe's clutchness is overrated since he has that 'killer' mentality, and isn't afraid to take those shots. But, he's a helluva lot more clutch than those stats suggest.

[Real Deal]

Nobody defends other superstars the way they do Kobe on those last-second shots, and it's a fact. There are only two players I've seen, other than Bryant, in the history of the game, that require that defensive attention: Jordan and Shaq.

 

And, surprisingly, teams didn't double Jordan on any game-winning shot I've ever seen from him. Of course, I haven't seen them all, but I've watched plenty of Jordan and have seen a relevant portion of his game-winners, live or in clips.

 

People made a big deal about him not passing the ball when he threw up a ridiculous shot attempt versus the Nets a long time ago, basically triple-teamed. I'm sorry, but Odom airballed a game-winning attempt around that time (maybe it was that season), Walton looked scared and blew the game against the Knicks when he was given an opportunity to do something with it, Kwame Brown can't even catch a basketball, and I don't need to take any additional steps trying to tell you about the rest of his teammates.

 

Aside from Shaq, who was almost always doubled and being sent to the line late in a game, and Robert Horry, the Lakers didn't have anyone to hit those shots. Fisher started coming up big after the dynasty. Were we going to rely on Slava Medvedenko to hit a clutch 18-foot game-winner? Please.

 

The dude can say what he wants, but I'll still put the ball in Kobe's hands at the end of the game. If he's got just one person on him, there's a good chance the shot is going in...and in a situation where a double is forced, there's absolutely nobody in the NBA that can hit them like Kobe can.

[The Regime]

Okay, so you're telling me that you would rather take Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, and Mike Bibby in the clutch. Go for it, I'll stick with Kobe.

 

Abbott fails to realize that the larger the sample size, the lower your percentage is going to be. If your going to compare guys to Kobe then pick guys who have taken a higher number of shots. I guarantee if Melo would have taken 115 shots his overall success percentage would be a lot lower.

[Newman]

Kobe may not make every shot he makes, but he makes the ones that are impossible for most others to make. Therefore, the safest bet for any team is to put the ball in his hands in the clutch moment as he is the one who can turn impossible into possible.

[Guru]

Okay, so you're telling me that you would rather take Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, and Mike Bibby in the clutch. Go for it, I'll stick with Kobe.

 

Abbott fails to realize that the larger the sample size, the lower your percentage is going to be. If your going to compare guys to Kobe then pick guys who have taken a higher number of shots. I guarantee if Melo would have taken 115 shots his overall success percentage would be a lot lower.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

[Nitro]

Nobody defends other superstars the way they do Kobe on those last-second shots, and it's a fact. There are only two players I've seen, other than Bryant, in the history of the game, that require that defensive attention: Jordan and Shaq.

 

And, surprisingly, teams didn't double Jordan on any game-winning shot I've ever seen from him. Of course, I haven't seen them all, but I've watched plenty of Jordan and have seen a relevant portion of his game-winners, live or in clips.

 

People made a big deal about him not passing the ball when he threw up a ridiculous shot attempt versus the Nets a long time ago, basically triple-teamed. I'm sorry, but Odom airballed a game-winning attempt around that time (maybe it was that season), Walton looked scared and blew the game against the Knicks when he was given an opportunity to do something with it, Kwame Brown can't even catch a basketball, and I don't need to take any additional steps trying to tell you about the rest of his teammates.

 

Aside from Shaq, who was almost always doubled and being sent to the line late in a game, and Robert Horry, the Lakers didn't have anyone to hit those shots. Fisher started coming up big after the dynasty. Were we going to rely on Slava Medvedenko to hit a clutch 18-foot game-winner? Please.

 

The dude can say what he wants, but I'll still put the ball in Kobe's hands at the end of the game. If he's got just one person on him, there's a good chance the shot is going in...and in a situation where a double is forced, there's absolutely nobody in the NBA that can hit them like Kobe can.

 

Read the entire article, the guy actually hits the topic from a ton of angles.

 

I read the article earlier today and am too lazy to open it back up, but the 1 assist to all those FGA;s stat really jumps out, as is how much the offense drops off in clutch situations. I think Kobe's stubborness in clutch situation makes him a lot easier to defend than other guys, and although he hits some really tough shots in those spots, living or dying by them isn't the best strategy. I don't care who you have for teammates; they are NBA players for a reason (and statistically in the last decade the Lakers' have had the best offense in the league, as the article mentions), and the only way they can gain that 'clutch' confidence is to give them opportunities.

 

As I said, though, those stats do Kobe's 'clutch' ability an injustice, but he does make some good points.

[trutrojan8]

Okay, so you're telling me that you would rather take Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, and Mike Bibby in the clutch. Go for it, I'll stick with Kobe.

 

Abbott fails to realize that the larger the sample size, the lower your percentage is going to be. If your going to compare guys to Kobe then pick guys who have taken a higher number of shots. I guarantee if Melo would have taken 115 shots his overall success percentage would be a lot lower.

Well since it's a percentage, it's unfair to assume he'd fall off from his average. If it's a small sample size, yes, but 44 shots or w/e is a decent enough sample size to judge consistency.

[Multi-Billionaire]

Nobody defends other superstars the way they do Kobe on those last-second shots, and it's a fact. There are only two players I've seen, other than Bryant, in the history of the game, that require that defensive attention: Jordan and Shaq.

 

And, surprisingly, teams didn't double Jordan on any game-winning shot I've ever seen from him. Of course, I haven't seen them all, but I've watched plenty of Jordan and have seen a relevant portion of his game-winners, live or in clips.

 

People made a big deal about him not passing the ball when he threw up a ridiculous shot attempt versus the Nets a long time ago, basically triple-teamed. I'm sorry, but Odom airballed a game-winning attempt around that time (maybe it was that season), Walton looked scared and blew the game against the Knicks when he was given an opportunity to do something with it, Kwame Brown can't even catch a basketball, and I don't need to take any additional steps trying to tell you about the rest of his teammates.

 

Aside from Shaq, who was almost always doubled and being sent to the line late in a game, and Robert Horry, the Lakers didn't have anyone to hit those shots. Fisher started coming up big after the dynasty. Were we going to rely on Slava Medvedenko to hit a clutch 18-foot game-winner? Please.

 

The dude can say what he wants, but I'll still put the ball in Kobe's hands at the end of the game. If he's got just one person on him, there's a good chance the shot is going in...and in a situation where a double is forced, there's absolutely nobody in the NBA that can hit them like Kobe can.

 

 

I thought I posted this back then...

 

They don't cover Kobe with 3-4 defenders in clutch like you Laker fans want us to believe. It's a large sample size of his career game winning shots.

 

Only 7 out of the 22 plays (31.8%) below, was Kobe guarded by more than 1 player.

 

 

 

- 0:48: guarded one-on-one by Hornets' George Lynch

- 1:37: guarded one on one by Suns' Shawn Marion

- 1:50: guarded one-on-one by Mavs' Jason Terry

- 2:05: guarded one-on-one by Grizzlies' Shane Battier

- 2:24: guarded one-on-one by Nuggets' pitiful defense Jon Barry

- 2:45: guarded one-on-one by Rockets' slow footed Yao Ming

- 2:53: guarded one-on-one by who is that??

- 3:06: Kobe broke free and found himself alone enough in time to shoot over a late-rotating Blazers' Ratliff

- 3:22: double- then triple teamed against Clippers

- 3:40: guarded one-on-one by a Charlotte Bobcat

- 3:48: double teamed by Nuggets' Andre Miller and Eduardo Najera

- 4:06: double teamed by two Suns

- 4:14: double teamed by Cavs' LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas

- 4:35: double teamed by Suns' Jason Kidd and Rodney Rogers

- 5:12: double-triple teamed by Nets

- 5:22: guarded one-on-one by Heat' Dwyane Wade

- 5:46: guarded one-on-one by Bucks' Charlie Bell

- 6:01: not even defended after Kobe pushed off Kings' Beno Udridh

- 6:31: guarded one-on-one by Celtics' Ray Allen

- 6:54: guarded one-on-one by a screened Grizzlies' OJ Mayo... and then game winning 3 over a late-rotating Rudy Gay

- 7:21: double-teamed by Raptors' ??? and Andrea Bargnani

- 7:51: guarded one-on-one by Spurs' Bruce Bowen

Edited January 29, 2011 by Multi-Billionaire

[Real Deal]

I thought I posted this back then...

 

They don't cover Kobe with 3-4 defenders in clutch like you Laker fans want us to believe. It's a large sample size of his career game winning shots.

 

Only 7 out of the 22 plays (31.8%) below, was Kobe guarded by more than 1 player.

Cool. Find me the ones he missed, and tell me who was guarding him. That's what I'm talking about.

[Multi-Billionaire]

^So if any NBA player is guarded by more than 1 player in clutch and he keeps missing those shots, he should pat himself in the back, "I should cheer up. I'm missing because they guard me with more than 1 player"?

 

Get outta here.

 

Are you saying, "Kobe is actually clutch, but because teams are sending 2-3 players at him in clutch situations, he's missing the shots he was supposed to make"??

[Erick Blasco]

Okay, so you're telling me that you would rather take Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, and Mike Bibby in the clutch. Go for it, I'll stick with Kobe.

 

Abbott fails to realize that the larger the sample size, the lower your percentage is going to be. If your going to compare guys to Kobe then pick guys who have taken a higher number of shots. I guarantee if Melo would have taken 115 shots his overall success percentage would be a lot lower.

 

If you ran a nice little brush screen for Bibby in the early-mid 2000's, there are few guys I'd want taking a last-second shot. Bibby was incredibly clutch for those Kings teams, as reliable in big moments as Peja Stojakovic was unreliable.

[The Regime]

Well since it's a percentage, it's unfair to assume he'd fall off from his average. If it's a small sample size, yes, but 44 shots or w/e is a decent enough sample size to judge consistency.

 

The more shots you shoot in the clutch the more you are going to miss, that's the reality of the game. You can't expect players to shoot at the same percentage.

[Erick Blasco]

The more shots you shoot in the clutch the more you are going to miss, that's the reality of the game. You can't expect players to shoot at the same percentage.

 

The Hedo Turkoglu theorem disproves that claim.

[ChosenOne]

The Hedo Turkoglu theorem disproves that claim.

 

Please explain....

[Real Deal]

^So if any NBA player is guarded by more than 1 player in clutch and he keeps missing those shots, he should pat himself in the back, "I should cheer up. I'm missing because they guard me with more than 1 player"?

 

Get outta here.

 

Are you saying, "Kobe is actually clutch, but because teams are sending 2-3 players at him in clutch situations, he's missing the shots he was supposed to make"??

...huh? I don't even get what you're asking.

 

One-on-one, Kobe would shoot a far better percentage in late-game situations.

 

I don't see how anyone could ever disagree and try and argue the fact that he receives more defensive attention than anyone else in the NBA in late-game situations, and it's not even close...but okay, we get it. Melo rules.

 

If you ran a nice little brush screen for Bibby in the early-mid 2000's, there are few guys I'd want taking a last-second shot. Bibby was incredibly clutch for those Kings teams, as reliable in big moments as Peja Stojakovic was unreliable.

Point was, today's Bibby is higher on that list. Would you take today's Bibby over Bryant if you were down by two, less than 24 to go?

 

This stuff reminds me of those horrible, garbage +/- stats, the ones that support Kobe being the worst player on the Lakers.

[Erick Blasco]

Please explain....

 

If a player generally doesn't give a damn about anything at all (except pizza, cryptic postgame comments, entry passes, and step-back jumpers going left), and has the benefit of Dwight Howard's screens, then that player's shooting in superclutch situations will be unaffected by the usual forces that regress percentages to the mean. Subsequently, that player will become BETTER in critical moments than at any other point prior.

 

This has all been proven by advanced math and science. You know, Quantum Physics and such.

[Erick Blasco]

...huh? I don't even get what you're asking.

 

One-on-one, Kobe would shoot a far better percentage in late-game situations.

 

I don't see how anyone could ever disagree and try and argue the fact that he receives more defensive attention than anyone else in the NBA in late-game situations, and it's not even close...but okay, we get it. Melo rules.

 

 

Point was, today's Bibby is higher on that list. Would you take today's Bibby over Bryant if you were down by two, less than 24 to go?

 

This stuff reminds me of those horrible, garbage +/- stats, the ones that support Kobe being the worst player on the Lakers.

 

Kobe was one of the guys I'd take over him then. I'd also take Kobe over him now. I would take 2003-2005 Bibby over 2003-2005 chuckamatic Kobe who'd drive into a triple team with open players all around.

[Multi-Billionaire]

All I can say is stats don't lie, except the +/- stat (lol)

 

You gotta be crazy to take Kobe Bryant (31.3%) over Melo (47.7%) in clutch. Melo has had his shares of double-triple teams in clutch.

[Real Deal]

Instead, the data set used for his argument is just a wee bit out of date. Let me fill in the blanks. Since the beginning of 2009, Kobe Bryant is 11 for 22 in those same "big" shot situations. He's also got three assists in that time period, which is a higher ratio of assist to FGA ratio than LeBron James had in the initial study. Now its time for a shocking admission; over that same time period, Kobe is 0-4 in the playoffs. Notice, that little tid-bit of information could be used to refute my overall argument, and yet I still include it. Why? Because I'm trying to make this argument as un-biased a way as possible. Besides, even with those four misses, Kobe is shooting 50% in do or die situations over the past 2+ seasons. Gee, that paints a little different portrait, doesn't it?

And much, much more...

 

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2011/1/28/1961684/how-to-be-statistically-biased-henry-abbott

[Nitro]

M.B- I think what Real Deal is trying to say is that Kobe is the best clutch shot maker in the league, but often times faces pressure that most other players simply don't attract. In a situation where Kobe is going one-on-one, nobody has more moves in his arsenal, mixed with the killer instinct to hit a dagger when the game is on the line.

 

Real Deal- What you're missing, I think, is that a lot of the shots Kobe takes in clutch moments shouldn't be taken in the first place. That is the sole reason why his shooting percentages in clutch situations are so low, and it is why his assists numbers in those situations are so abysmal. You can't expect role players to knock down clutch shots when you constantly ignore them in pressure situations; giving them opportunities to succeed or fail is how you let them develop that ability. There are a certain few who have that hot-wired into them from the start, but others need to be exposed to it so they can build that ability. And since over the last decade or so the Lakers, as a team, have had arguably the consistently best offense in the league, they certainly have had the offensive talent and system to get that done (save for maybe 1-2 years). It is simply unacceptable to being taking fadeaways over double and triple teams when your teammates are wide open (unless there is like 1 second on the clock and they wouldn't receive a clean catch and shot). Relying on that ability is a very dicey risk, and I think some of the stats showing the Lakers' offense over the years in the clutch kind of reflects that. Don't get me wrong, there are certainly many factors which Kobe can't control that play into that, but Kobe certainly deserves a fair share of that blame. Being able to nail any shot on the floor and facing some fierce defensive attention doesn't excuse Kobe's stubborness in those clutch situations, and that same stubborness is why defenses can load up on him like they do; he's too predictable most of the time. Sometimes it won't matter and he will hit the shot anyway, but in the bigger picture it isn't the best strategy.

[Real Deal]

M.B- I think what Real Deal is trying to say is that Kobe is the best clutch shot maker in the league, but often times faces pressure that most other players simply don't attract. In a situation where Kobe is going one-on-one, nobody has more moves in his arsenal, mixed with the killer instinct to hit a dagger when the game is on the line.

 

Real Deal- What you're missing, I think, is that a lot of the shots Kobe takes in clutch moments shouldn't be taken in the first place. That is the sole reason why his shooting percentages in clutch situations are so low, and it is why his assists numbers in those situations are so abysmal. You can't expect role players to knock down clutch shots when you constantly ignore them in pressure situations; giving them opportunities to succeed or fail is how you let them develop that ability. There are a certain few who have that hot-wired into them from the start, but others need to be exposed to it so they can build that ability. And since over the last decade or so the Lakers, as a team, have had arguably the consistently best offense in the league, they certainly have had the offensive talent and system to get that done (save for maybe 1-2 years). It is simply unacceptable to being taking fadeaways over double and triple teams when your teammates are wide open (unless there is like 1 second on the clock and they wouldn't receive a clean catch and shot). Relying on that ability is a very dicey risk, and I think some of the stats showing the Lakers' offense over the years in the clutch kind of reflects that. Don't get me wrong, there are certainly many factors which Kobe can't control that play into that, but Kobe certainly deserves a fair share of that blame. Being able to nail any shot on the floor and facing some fierce defensive attention doesn't excuse Kobe's stubborness in those clutch situations, and that same stubborness is why defenses can load up on him like they do; he's too predictable most of the time. Sometimes it won't matter and he will hit the shot anyway, but in the bigger picture it isn't the best strategy.

As the article says (the one I just posted to end the first page of discussion), most of that was in Bryant's "dark" years as a player, the selfish Kobe that was going through the feud with Shaq, or the one that didn't have any teammates (when he was in what you would consider his ultimate prime). Over the last 2-3 seasons, Bryant has been passing the ball more in clutch situations.

 

However, watching the Lakers over that time period, I've seen Ron Artest blow a lot of shots. Gasol won't even shoot a clutch shot...just a put-back. Odom will stand there and wait for his opportunity to take a three. They are all NBA players, but that doesn't mean they are clutch. Fisher is the exception, but he's also shooting 38% or so from the floor this season, has been horrible in regular season play since I can remember, and only shows up in the playoffs nowadays.

 

So Kobe's 11-22 on game-winners (or clutch shots) since 2009? Do we still call Jason Kidd the best point guard in the NBA? Today (and in my opinion, for years), Kobe is the best in the clutch. Hard to change my mind when I've yet to see anyone do it better, arguably just Jordan.

[*Swish*]

We have a lot of great players in the NBA who aren't scared of taking important shots and could make them in clutch time.But nobody could be better than Bryant. When someone says: ''Who's the best clutch player that ever played the game?'' lots of people have mostly THREE answers: ''Ray Allen'' ''Reggie Miller'' and ''Larry Bird''. Yeah these were/are great shooters that will be legends of basketball. But what about Kobe Bryant? When his team is down, he puts them on the back and goes to work man!

 

Despite being over his thirties going to his 17th NBA season, Kobe just got 38 points against the Kings yesterday because his team needed him. He's one of the best closer in the game and that is because of his hard work and his killed instinct. Kobe is clutch. Just remember how much buzzer beaters he made last season!? When you score around 10 game winners in a season, and you say ''that guy is not clutch'', I think you honestly have a problem.

 

Or maybe...

 

 

you're just a hater

[Newman]

When someone says: ''Who's the best clutch player that ever played the game?'' lots of people have mostly THREE answers: ''Ray Allen'' ''Reggie Miller'' and ''Larry Bird''.

 

http://pushingsocial.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/The-Shot-vs-Cavaliers-michael-jordan-8857393-558-800.jpg

[Cleveland's Finest]

These are all regular season stats.

 

What stats matter most? The stats in the playoffs...and by my count, I see Melo's been in the playoffs seven years, and gotten past once. LeBron's been in the playoffs five years and gotten past the ECF once. Kobe has been in the finals SIX times.

 

If there's a regular season game against a lower-tier opponent coming down to the final minutes, give me LeBron or Carmelo.

 

But in a heated, playoff intensity atmosphere with the season on the line and the physicality at its highest, give me Kobe.

Edited January 29, 2011 by Cleveland's Finest