Cool Article on how Spoelstra Crunches Numbers

[Erick Blasco]

 

 

When you bring up the statistical revolution in the NBA, the first person that comes to mind is Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey. But almost every team in the league has someone, either on staff or as a consultant, doing statistical analysis.

 

For the most part though, NBA coaches are old school. They make decisions from what they see with their eyes more than what some computer program might spit out.

 

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the exceptions to the rule. The man who is tasked with turning the greatest free agent haul in NBA history into a championship team is, at his core, a numbers guy.

 

NBA.com spoke this week with Spoelstra about his usage of statistics, as well as the trends that he's seen with his team thus far.

 

NBA.com: In general, what role do statistics play in how you've coached the Heat?

 

Erik Spoelstra: I look at it to evaluate our team, to compare us to other teams, particularly defensively, where we stack up against the best. I also use it to make points to the team about things we need to improve. I use it also for scouting, when we're trying to come up with a game plan for the opponent.

 

More than anything, I use stats to either substantiate some hunches we have as a staff or to make us think more and to come up with more questions.

 

NBA.com: What statistical tools do you use?

 

E.S.: We have a proprietary statistical database that we've had since I was an assistant coach. We developed it with our personal software writer for stats. He's based out of L.A. and his name is Shmuel Einstein.

 

When Pat [Riley] wanted to turn the corner statistically 10-plus years ago, he put me in charge of it with a blank canvas. So I figured he would be a good guy to hire since his name was Einstein.

 

NBA.com: So Pat was the one who originally drove you into statistics?

 

E.S.: He always wanted to crunch numbers and look at different ways of doing it. So he met with me one time and said, "I want more information. I don't know exactly what. Find somebody who can write a program, and take it where you think it can go."

 

NBA.com: And how much has it developed over time?

 

E.S.: Quite a bit. When I became head coach, I hired another guy that I've known for a long time, Bob Chaikin. He used to run a statistical database site and he runs simulations for me. So that's a little bit out of the box.

 

NBA.com: What numbers are most important to you?

 

<p>Your browser does not support iframes.</p> E.S.: Surprisingly, very basic numbers. I look at all of our defensive rankings. I want to see where we rank in overall efficiency, field goal percentage allowed, points allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, points in the paint allowed, and our rebounding numbers. Those are probably the numbers I look at the most.

 

Then we have our own defensive chart that we built under Pat. Stan [Van Gundy] used it as well and I continue to use it. We grade each defensive possession by 54 different criteria.

 

NBA.com: What would be some examples of those 54 criteria?

 

E.S.: Proper coverage of pick-and-roll. For example, if we're getting over the screen, if the big is showing correctly, if our weak side protections are there in three different areas. We grade every situation, post-ups, catch-and-shoots, pick-and-rolls, transition conversion ... all of these, every single possession.

 

It is a very tedious and laborious process. I used to chart that for Pat and Stan. And the day that I finally graduated from that responsibility - and I've had many different responsibilities over 15 years - that was one of my greatest days with the Miami Heat.

 

So now Brian Hecker, who is one of our scouts, does that. And he's done it for the last five or six years. It's a very comprehensive report. It takes a long time.

 

So that's primarily for myself and the staff now. When Pat was coaching, he would give those grades out to the players. And that was always a point of contention, with myself or with Brian, because players didn't want to have their grades written on the board the next day. It was always contested, because a lot of it was subjective.

 

NBA.com: So who has the best grades this season?

 

E.S.: We have quite a few impact guys. You can score more than one positive point every possession. It's weighted a little bit more in the bigs' favor, because you can impact more plays with your helps on the weak side on pick-and-rolls. But we have several guys that can rack up multiple points on one single possession, by doing a lot of different things right. And obviously, that would be Joel Anthony, Chris [bosh], LeBron [James], Dwyane [Wade]. These guys rack up rack up a lot of points, a lot of positives.

 

For whatever reason, I don't give the grades out to the players. But I use the chart to find out where we've been weak and where we've been giving up the majority of points. It will show you, for example, we had 15 poor shows on pick-and-rolls, and they scored x amount of points off that. Or they scored x amount of points off one-on-one attacks, where we didn't contain the ball.

 

So after three weeks or three months, you find significant trends of where you need to improve.

 

NBA.com: I imagine you also look at different player combinations and units.

 

E.S.: I think everybody in the league looks at those. We do that with our database, looking at individual or combinations of players. Also, which ones are our better defensive units, as far as field goal percentage allowed, points allowed per 48 minutes, 3-point percentage, everything that we can chart.

 

That I've used from time to time with the players, to say "This group has been our most active group," as far as plus-minus impact, which you can't deny, and also by our defensive chart, which is subjective. And from there, you can challenge the ones that aren't up to that level.

 

NBA.com: Do players understand plus-minus?

 

E.S.: I think now they do, because it's much more prevalent than it was a few years ago. You see it on everybody's website. Journalists now talk about it more.

 

You can argue all you want about this or that, but at the end of the day, the most important statistic is the result on the scoreboard when you're on the floor. I think that resonates with players, so we challenge our guys all the time. Make your minutes a positive. Whatever minutes you're out there, don't let the score go the other way.

 

After each game, I have a big printout, about 30 pages, of different statistics. I don't look through all the pages, but there are some that I immediately look at. I'll always look at the plus-minus of individual players to start, but I think that can be deceptive. From there, you have to look at the combinations.

 

 

http://www.nba.com/2011/news/features/john_schuhmann/01/22/spoelstra-qa/index.html