Conference Finals and Finals Predictions

[JYD]

This thread seems like a "pick you're favorite team to win the Finals" thread. Lol.

 

But, no really, I'm surprised how many people picked Boston. I think they'll get through Round 1, but after that I'd be surprised. Not having that defensive front line of Perkins and Garnett is just a huge blow IMO.

[Poe]

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder

 

6 posts got rep points. All posts in this thread already incorrect except mine. I deserve at least 6 rep points.

[Hawks Fly High]

6 posts got rep points. All posts in this thread already incorrect except mine. I deserve at least 6 rep points.

You get a couple of predictions right and your ego completely inflates, go crawl back under your rock and watch the WNBA with the other 6 viewers.

[Poe]

You get a couple of predictions right and your ego completely inflates, go crawl back under your rock and watch the WNBA with the other 6 viewers.

 

You seem mad.

 

 

But that's life. Hated before respected. Kind of like Van Gogh. It takes a while for the rest to catch up.

 

That's why I don't get repped. At least not repped by the more active posters when my opinion differs too far from the norm. I'm not popular at this stage. I'm outcasted for being different, when the difference is simply a measure of capacity.

 

 

This is more directed towards my views, my opinions, my creations. I could have been wrong in my predictions by chance, like say, an injury. Anyway, I have no reason for my ego to inflate. This stuff happens all the time. I just don't bother to point it out as much as I should. When my ego will really inflate is once I talk to NBA team executives about some stats I have invented and will invent, after I get them patented of course.

 

 

 

Edit: And of course your post gets repped lol.

Edited May 15, 2011 by Poe

[fish7718]

You seem mad.

 

 

But that's life. Hated before respected. Kind of like Van Gogh. It takes a while for the rest to catch up.

 

That's why I don't get repped. At least not repped by the more active posters when my opinion differs too far from the norm. I'm not popular at this stage. I'm outcasted for being different, when the difference is simply a measure of capacity.

 

 

This is more directed towards my views, my opinions, my creations. I could have been wrong in my predictions by chance, like say, an injury. Anyway, I have no reason for my ego to inflate. This stuff happens all the time. I just don't bother to point it out as much as I should. When my ego will really inflate is once I talk to NBA team executives about some stats I have invented and will invent, after I get them patented of course.

 

 

 

Edit: And of course your post gets repped lol.

Or it is because you act like a baby over reps...now that I know you want em so bad I'm not giving em

[Guru]

Or it is because you act like a baby over reps...now that I know you want em so bad I'm not giving em

yerp... i would of thought about repping you if you didn't blatantly ask for a rep

[Hawks Fly High]

You seem mad.

 

 

But that's life. Hated before respected. Kind of like Van Gogh. It takes a while for the rest to catch up.

 

That's why I don't get repped. At least not repped by the more active posters when my opinion differs too far from the norm. I'm not popular at this stage. I'm outcasted for being different, when the difference is simply a measure of capacity.

 

 

This is more directed towards my views, my opinions, my creations. I could have been wrong in my predictions by chance, like say, an injury. Anyway, I have no reason for my ego to inflate. This stuff happens all the time. I just don't bother to point it out as much as I should. When my ego will really inflate is once I talk to NBA team executives about some stats I have invented and will invent, after I get them patented of course.

 

 

 

Edit: And of course your post gets repped lol.

 

Compare yourself to an artistically inclined genius? Honestly man your post quality is very high and you have 183 rep which is no meager total. I respect you, but you can get so obnoxious with your obsession with being right and showing off about your new scoring system (which had several flaws I didn't point out).

So good luck in your exploits with NBA executives, but at the end of the day you know you'll log back onto OTR.

[Poe]

To be honest, I don't care all that much about how much rep I receive. It's virtually valueless. It's not like I get a prize for it, there's no money involved, nor is it anywhere close to an accurate measurement of basketball intellect.

 

What bothers me though is the pattern I notice with rep and the way it's given and received, and how that actually compares to real life in many ways. Like intangible rep points given to someone who says a snappy "comeback" (in a public situation), even if what's said doesn't logically make much sense, and in the grand scheme of things nothing positive was accomplished.... for a small example.

 

 

Compare yourself to an artistically inclined genius? Honestly man your post quality is very high and you have 183 rep which is no meager total. I respect you, but you can get so obnoxious with your obsession with being right and showing off about your new scoring system (which had several flaws I didn't point out).

So good luck in your exploits with NBA executives, but at the end of the day you know you'll log back onto OTR.

 

You're right, it's too soon to make such a statement. I haven't proven anything. Well not yet, hopefully.

 

I do feel that a lot of the things I say aren't taken seriously now, but perhaps after months or years, people might look back and say "you know, he had a point...".

 

Sometimes it's predictions I make, and the shitty thing about predictions is that they don't come true until they happen, which may take months or years, forcing me to bump topics if I want to gain a small amount of respect or recognition, since people don't remember that stuff. A lot of predictions I've made have still yet to unravel, and a lot were made outside the forums like predicting O.J. Mayo would be a bench player at the beginning of the season, or predicting the Rockets would trade for a ball handling wing player (who turned out to be Terrence Williams).

 

 

The scoring system isn't perfect. Not many stats, or even advanced stats, are. Hollinger is famous for stats like PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and PPR (Pure Point Rating), when their flaws are more than obvious.

 

I actively challenged people to find the flaws in the results of my own stat, which I suppose can be difficult when I had yet to reveal it's process. I think I've drawn a conclusion that there aren't enough flaws where the stat can't at least be considered useful.

 

However, I do have one concern, and that the result of my scoring rating oddly ranks the players similar to points per 36 minutes. But comparing to the fact that PPR is very similar to assist to turnover ratio (actually, it's formula is basically assist to turnover ratio but factors team pace), I guess it isn't too much to worry about.

 

 

And I'm not sure what you mean about by "so obnoxious with your obsession with being right". If you are talking about during debates, that's just an attempt to get people to strengthen their side of the argument. I want to be challenged in that way. When I feel that they aren't making a strong case, I try to push buttons. Perhaps I push the wrong ones, leading to "hurr durr you're just an idiot".

 

If you're talking about bumping topics saying "I told you so". Well, I don't do that very often. There's no real reason to do it other than gloat. Maybe I'm just tired of people not taking me seriously (or, at least, it feels that way. Maybe it's my anxiety).

 

 

And the shittiest part, is when my posts get this long, people don't usually read it. At least not the whole thing, and they'll quote just a sentence acting as if that's the basis of my argument, forcing me to repeat and waste my energy. It's probably a reason I'm getting disinterested in this forum.

 

And I'm guessing most of the people who click on this thread, seeing that a new post has been made, will immediately skip and go back to the previous page seeing a post longer than two sentences. Another reason not to stick around.

[Check my Stats]

I remember saying somewhere that Derrick Rose will probably win MVP before the year started (after LBJ signed with the Heat, Rose saying he could shoot 3's, and Bulls getting players), people probably laughed at me. The difference is that I'm not insecure enough to go find it and bump it. If you know you're right, who cares if everyone else does?

Edited May 17, 2011 by Check my Stats

[Real Deal]

What the [expletive]?

 

 

WEST First Round:

(1) Spurs > (8) Grizzlies

(4) Thunder > (5) Nuggets

(3) Mavs > (6) Blazers

(2) Lakers > (7) Hornets

 

EAST First Round:

(1) Bulls > (8) Pacers

(4) Magic > (5) Hawks

(3) Celtics

(2) Heat > (7) Sixers

 

I don't see Rose as a legitimate candidate for another few years or so. He's got a lot more to prove than being able to talk the talk.

I don't see the Bulls making it past the 4th seed, behind the Heat, Celtics, and Magic.

 

To be honest, I'm not sure if they are even better than the Bucks unless Rose and Deng can become true perimeter threats. It's a very crucial key to their success. They have the coaching, the defense, the rebounding, the scoring threats from the post and midrange, and perhaps some depth. They are just missing that one element. Whether Rose truly improves his 3 point shooting is going to have a bigger impact than even Rose might realize.

 

West standings...

 

2) Portland Trailblazers - Last year, they managed a 50 win record and made the 6th seed in a very tough western conference despite 3 of their 5 starters missing game due to injury at some point during the season including Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, as well as many of their key bench players. Now that they are healthy, they will surely improve without a doubt, and quite considerably at that.

 

6) San Antonio Spurs - An interesting offseason acquisition in Tiago Splitter from overseas, which should surely improve the frontcourt. Without any further improvements however, if the team remains healthy, we shouldn’t see much improvement in their record. Not unless this aging squad finds a way to improve from within.

 

7) Oklahoma City Thunder - Superstar Kevin Durant and upcoming star Russell Westbrook will lead this team back into the playoffs. However, they’ll need to strengthen the rest of the team if they want to become contenders. Youth and potential will allow them to improve from within, but that can only go so far. They may need to find more talent in the future, particularly at PF and C.

 

8) Houston Rockets - There is a lot of hype surrounding the Rockets, but I feel their future is too reliant on a single player’s return. If Yao’s comeback is unsuccessful, I do not expect much higher than the 8th seed for this team, perhaps even worse if one of the younger teams, like the Kings or the Warriors, winds up building faster than expected. It is virtually the same team as last year after all, which failed to make the playoffs. If Yao does return and reach his old form however, I do expect a higher seed. Perhaps the 4th or 5th seed.

 

9) Sacramento Kings - Following the dominant ROY season from shooting guard Tyreke Evens, the Kings draft another high talent in center DeMarcus Cousins. Pairing a dominant bigman with a dominant little man has proven to be lethal in the past, so we can expect a bright future coming from this franchise under these two young talents. Add them with the high scoring power forward Carl Landry, the versatile Donte Greene, and a solid bench including Samuel Dalembert, Jason Thompson, and Francisco Garcia, this team may surprise people. We still have yet to see how DeMarcus Cousins will adapt to the big leagues, so I’m a little reluctant to go as far as saying they will make the playoffs, though I think it’s definitely a possibility.

 

12) Memphis Grizzlies - Despite being two seeds away from the playoffs last season, the management made no effort to improve the team. The talent is there, particularly in the starting line up. That isn’t the main problem for the Grizzlies, though. What this team lacks is a clear defined role for each player. There are too many scorers and not enough facilitators. Lots of strong rebounders, but they lack defense collectively. They should try to trade some players for pieces that fit the Grizzly puzzle.

 

14) New Orleans Hornets - There are too many problems within the organization to make much of a playoff run this year, especially involving their best player. If the organization had a clear focus on a set goal for the franchise, I would expect more, but that doesn’t seem to be there. Maybe they can finally head in a direction once they trade Chris Paul.

I really like the move to get Arenas, who will be a clear upgrade over Carter, and will give Howard the best player he has ever played with. Fantastic move to get him.

I have high hopes that Mike Bibby will become the floor general the Heat have strongly needed all season, particularly late in games.

A lot of stuff going on there. That's just a post search of about 30% of your posts, random (from July 2010-today), and I skipped over half of those I looked up.

 

Kudos for getting the four conference finals teams right. If I wasn't a Lakers fan, I wouldn't have put them in the WCF, and my four teams would've been the same as yours.

 

Hard to say right now. The purple and gold in me wants to believe, but I know better. I'd like to know what seed we head into the playoffs with, and where Chicago and Miami are going to be at in the East as well (if we have HCA over them, which doesn't look like it's going to happen now).

 

If we have a road series for the second round, then another in the WCF, then ANOTHER in the Finals...that's going to be an incredible run that I haven't seen many teams pull off. Olajuwon's Rockets come to mind (one of the greatest playoff runs of all-time, going in as a sixth-seeded team). I think the Pistons did it in 2004, as a third seed.

 

Last year, Kobe dropped 30+ points in 11 of 12 playoff games, starting at the end of the Thunder series. It led us to victories over the Thunder, Jazz, and Suns...all having trouble in our house.

 

You can't win every game...and you can't win every championship. People have to be realistic. The Bulls, Heat and Celtics are all a threat. I'm not too worried about anyone in the West other than the Thunder, possibly the Mavs, but it only takes one team to send us packing until the 2011-12 season. If we fall before the WCF, we'll be seeing the Thunder and Mavs there, probably Bulls and Heat out East (Boston screwed themselves trading Perk). Sucks, but it is what it is.

http://thelakersnation.com/forums/topic/48827-can-the-lakers-still-win-a-championship/page__view__findpost__p__897328

 

It's not that impressive, no reason to make a big deal about. We all hit the nail on the head sometimes, but the one thing we don't like to do is go back and point out where we were wrong. We've all been down that road before as well.

[AboveLegit]

Predictions mean nothing, you're either right or wrong, you can support your claims as much as you want, but the truth is, no one knows what the future holds. It has nothing to do with intellect. If you get a prediction right, no one is going to assume your a smart poster.

[Poe]

You aren't proving much with that post. Nobody is correct 100% of the time. If I am, it's by luck. By chance.

 

 

First quote:

I underestimated the Hawks and the Grizzlies. I made a couple mistakes.

 

The Knicks had injuries to key players from game 1. I still believe they would have won the series had they remained healthy. It's difficult to predict injuries.

 

But that's still 9/12 correct so far in the playoffs.

 

 

Second quote:

It was an undeserved MVP.

 

He team won because they among the top in the league in defense and rebounding, but are inefficient offensively, and Rose isn't that efficient offensively either.

 

 

Third quote:

Terrible choice.

"unless Rose and Deng can become true perimeter threats." - Which they did, averaging a combined 42 PPG.

 

"Whether Rose truly improves his 3 point shooting is going to have a bigger impact than even Rose might realize." - He made 1.6 threes per game this year, shooting 33%.

 

 

Fourth quote:

"July 2010"

 

Nevertheless

 

• Portland was injured again

• the Thunder improved at PF and C like predicted

• Houston didn't get higher than 8th like predicted "if Yao does not successfully return".

• The Kings still have high potential, and may very well make the playoffs next year

 

But admittedly, the Grizzlies and Hornets predictions were outright mistakes

 

 

Fifth quote:

Arenas still has much to prove. If things aren't different by next season, THEN you can start calling me out. It's way too early now.

 

 

Sixth quote:

"High hopes" = Prediction?

 

 

 

I mean, common lol. You have to do better than that if you want to make me look bad.

Edited May 17, 2011 by Poe

[Poe]

If you get a prediction right, no one is going to assume your a smart poster.

Depends on the situation.

 

And whether you are smart or not isn't measured by what people think of you.

[Check my Stats]

I'll just never forgive you for saying (and insisting) Dorrell Wright could be an all-star if given a role on a team. I know that much.

 

Also to say Rose didn't deserve the MVP is pretty subjective. Based on how the award is given out, he deserved it more than anyone. Based on how maybe it SHOULD be given out, you could have an argument. But he did deserve it based on how it's given out, and LBJ didn't (I don't know if you think that but I feel like I saw you post somewhere he did, or maybe it was Flash, not sure).

Edited May 17, 2011 by Check my Stats

[Poe]

I'll just never forgive you for saying (and insisting) Dorrell Wright could be an all-star if given a role on a team. I know that much.

 

Also to say Rose didn't deserve the MVP is pretty subjective. Based on how the award is given out, he deserved it more than anyone. Based on how maybe it SHOULD be given out, you could have an argument. But he did deserve it based on how it's given out, and LBJ didn't (I don't know if you think that but I feel like I saw you post somewhere he did, or maybe it was Flash, not sure).

 

1. Dorell Wright hasn't primed. (Also, measuring his rate of improvement, he is likely to be an all-star-caliber player two years from now).

 

2. However it's given out, I still don't feel he deserved it, and I believe the way the MVP award is selected should NOT be based on votes, but by measurement. Also meaning that more statistics need to be calculated in order to accurately measure the true MVP (like screen-for-scores, deflections, etc.).

 

3. LeBron is more deserving than Rose, but I'm not sure if he is the most deserving either. Perhaps Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, or Kobe Bryant. All of which are more deserving than Rose (IMO).

Edited May 17, 2011 by Poe

[Real Deal]

I mean, common lol. You have to do better than that if you want to make me look bad.

Sadly, this is why you feel the way you do about this place. Nobody is trying to make you look bad; instead, it seems like you're trying to prove nobody can.

 

My post proved that you can be right, and you can be wrong. We have no reason to freak out and claim that you're unbelievable and impeccable because you knew the four CF teams and have developed a stat for scoring. You can toot your own horn, but most all of us have our headphones on. You get a rep here by the quality and quantity of your posts, and by the way you treat the rest of the community, not by making a single prediction at the end of the regular season.

 

If you wanted more respect as a knowledgeable NBA poster, you're going to have to put in more work with the other 29 teams. It's something a few others have no problem doing from time to time, a couple earning their respect on other boards before making their way over here, and someone like Blasco, who doesn't mind debating about any team or player in the NBA, and doing it often.

 

As far as rep points go, who really cares? If you don't think they mean much, I'm not sure why it's even up for discussion. I don't use them to determine who the top posters are here, and nobody else does as well (haven't seen anyone judge people by their rep points, unless they were cracking a joke), so I don't see the relevance.

 

If you're really disappointed in OTR, losing interest, whatever you are feeling...dude, nobody is holding you hostage. I wish you the best in finding another site that has the basketball knowledge we do, other than RealGM, where you're going to have to post your ass off, non-stop, to gain even an ounce of respect and to be noticed.

[Poe]

You get a rep here by the quality and quantity of your posts

 

And you seriously believe that?

 

If you wanted more respect as a knowledgeable NBA poster, you're going to have to put in more work with the other 29 teams.

 

Do you read my posts? I even watch the WNBA for crying out loud.

 

 

I don't use them to determine who the top posters are here, and nobody else does as well (haven't seen anyone judge people by their rep points, unless they were cracking a joke), so I don't see the relevance.

 

I think people here put more value into rep points than you think, and post count as well. Or else there is nothing to strive for. There would be no motivation.

[AboveLegit]

The motivation is to keep talking basketball with a stable, knowledgeable community. I've been around many boards with many post padders and attention whores, OTR doesn't even come close to that.

[Check my Stats]

Is there any way to have an off-topic rep and a basketball rep? That'd be cool to be honest.

[Real Deal]

And you seriously believe that?

I said rep, meaning a reputation for being an excellent poster...not a reputation point.

 

 

Do you read my posts? I even watch the WNBA for crying out loud.

I went through 40 pages of your posts, which is around 1,000...just skimming through them, of course.

 

And you and I both know that very few on OTR care enough about the WNBA for that to matter. I even made the attempt to get the discussion going with you on a couple of your topics, but I knew it wouldn't pan out simply because it doesn't on any board I've seen.

 

I think people here put more value into rep points than you think, and post count as well. Or else there is nothing to strive for. There would be no motivation.

Motivation for what, though? It's a place to post, that's it. You give and take here.

 

Rep points mean nothing to most. For one, you can't see total rep unless you go to a profile. And no, rep points and post count have no relation, whatsoever.

 

http://www.otrbasketball.com/forums/index.php?app=members&section=view&module=list&max_results=20&sort_key=posts&sort_order=desc&filter=ALL

 

Minus those that have a boosted post count due to the old OTR...just go to the second page and compare reps to post counts.

 

People rep posts for various reasons. Everyone here knows that, including you. Why would anyone actually care what our reps are?

 

Getting rid of reputation points will do nothing for you, and nothing for us. According to you, it actually doesn't matter...because you're some outcast because you're different (these are your words). That your opinions differ from the norm. That you're this OTR version of Van Gogh.

 

You stated that rep points are irrelevant to you. You stated that you're ignored, that people don't read your posts. I think you're wrong about both. You created a topic in Site Suggestions all about the reputation points, asking if we can get them separated (one for funny posts, one for NBA). Also, if people aren't reading your posts, you wouldn't get any replies...but you do. People just don't like hearing about Dorell Wright being a future all-star, about as much as they don't like hearing JR Smith being compared to Kobe Bryant.

 

If Dorell becomes an all-star, you get a thumbs up...but how much energy will I waste trying to argue my stance on that right now? I think it's a ridiculous prediction because, for the most part, there's no reason for me to believe it to be true. He's 24-25 years old, steadily improving, and...? You can't expect me to dive into a 5-page argument about it.

 

You also gave us a new stat that rates a player's scoring ability, then you ask for us to find a flaw...yet, you didn't give us any information on it. It's cool that you want to keep quiet, but why are you asking us to find a flaw? For all we know, you're making up numbers...can't find a flaw if we have no idea what you're talking about.

 

So, what exactly do you expect? You predicted the top four teams in the CF's. Do we talk about this, or...? It's not outstanding when you made the prediction just a month ago, when the Lakers were struggling, when the Spurs started looking bad and nearly losing their top seed in the West, when Chicago was locking up the best record in the NBA, when Boston was struggling without Perk, when OKC knocked off the Lakers and looked solid, and when the Heat were firing from all cylinders. Really?

 

I don't know what else to say to you.

[Art]

That you're this OTR version of Van Gogh.

That's priceless if that was really said.

[Real Deal]

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder

 

NBA FINALS: Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder

 

NBA CHAMPION: Miami Heat

Prediction ruined.

 

Sorry, had to do it.

[Poe]

Yea, the Mavericks really exposed some holes that the Thunder have in their young team. I don't think I thought that series through well enough. Plus, Dirk was freaking out of this world.

 

If the Heat advance and win the finals, I will at least be nearly 75% correct for my playoff predictions as a whole.

 

 

 

I'm not sure why you crossed off the Heat already, btw. Did Wade fall down some stairs?

[Art]

You guys should really take this outside and settle this like gentlemen.

Edited May 26, 2011 by Art Bart

[Real Deal]

I'm not sure why you crossed off the Heat already, btw.

Because they weren't going to win it all.