New Stat: Scoring Ability Rating

[Poe]

Atlanta Hawks: 44 - 38

 

Joe Johnson - 77.778

Josh Smith - 75.542

Jamal Crawford - 75.016

Al Horford - 73.360

Jeff Teague - 68.806

Marvin Williams - 68.446

Josh Powell - 66.206

Zaza Pachulia - 56.868

Damien Wilkins - 56.184

Jason Collins - 25.160

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Etan Thomas - 69.296 (13 games)

Pape Sy - 65.785 (3 games)

 

Traded Players:

--- Acquired:

Kirk Hinrich - 60.648 (TOT - 63.496)

Hilton Armstrong - 43.280 (TOT - 33.736)

--- Left:

Jordan Crawford - 74.398 (TOT - 75.267)

Maurice Evens - 56.051 (TOT - 61.108)

Mike Bibby - 62.478 (TOT - 60.384)

[Nitro]

What I would like to know the most out of the people here though - not based off of statistics but based off of watching and observing the players overall scoring abilities - would you say that the order is generally correct? Are there any players that look like they are rated too high/low? (like Steve Novak, for an extreme example)

 

There's a few that are big outliers to me...like, I don't know how House should be 4th on the Heat when he's shooting sub-40% from the field and can't create his own shot, and how Bibby is so low despite being their 5th highest scorer and shooting very well from the field. On the Lakers, no way should Brown be ahead of Odom and Bynum, on the Mavs Barea is way too high, and on the Spurs RJ is way too low.

 

But, unless I know what you're basing this off of, it's impossible for me to really give you good feedback.

[Poe]

There's a few that are big outliers to me...like, I don't know how House should be 4th on the Heat when he's shooting sub-40% from the field and can't create his own shot, and how Bibby is so low despite being their 5th highest scorer and shooting very well from the field. On the Lakers, no way should Brown be ahead of Odom and Bynum, on the Mavs Barea is way too high, and on the Spurs RJ is way too low.

 

But, unless I know what you're basing this off of, it's impossible for me to really give you good feedback.

 

House has been rated 4th on the Heat for a while now. I had questioned it myself until seeing him get a higher role in the offense against the Raptors (when the big three were resting). He went off for 35 points.

 

I think what allowed House to receive such a high rating is his ability to maneuver off screens, and be able to get off shots without much breathing room with his lightening-quick release, AND make them at a good enough percentage even when heavily contested.

 

 

See, this is the way I want you to observe the ratings of these players. Objectively look at their abilities and inabilities on offense. Who is good at what, or SO good at something that it outweighs the bad, etc.

 

Like for example, what specifically in Brown's offensive skillset makes him a worse overall scorer compared to Odom and Bynum?

 

 

This is what the rating should somehow conclude. The best overall scorer. Not necessarily the player with the highest volume or the best percentages.

Edited April 16, 2011 by Poe

[?QuestionMark?]

If this is to measure just pure scoring ability then I think a lot of these numbers are off.

 

Guys like Durant, Kobe, Melo, Wade, LeBron, since they can score in more ways against tougher defenses specifically designed to stop them, should be off the charts higher than other players.

 

I don't see how Tyson Chandler is higher than Hedo Turkoglu and Ray Felton when Tyson doesn't score uness it's a dunk.

 

Josh Smith's seems a lot higher than I expect. I haven't seen him score consistently except on dunks and in transition.

 

Also, no way Novak or Korver should be that high. Novak is no more than a spot up shooter who relies on someone else to create a shot for him.

 

I don't know the formula but it seems like there is a scoring efficiency applied to it. Which doesn't really reflect pure scoring ability.

[Poe]

New York Knicks: 42 - 40

 

Amar'e Stoudemire - 81.745

Toney Douglas - 71.832

Bill Walker - 66.838

Shawne Williams - 64.038

Landry Fields - 59.328

Ronny Turiaf - 44.040

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Roger Mason - 50.576 (26 games)

Andy Rautins - 65.433 (5 games)

 

Traded Players:

--- Acquired:

Carmelo Anthony - 83.128 (TOT - 82.826)

Chauncey Billups - 77.096 (TOT - 75.383)

Derrick Brown - 64.315 (TOT - 61.102)

Sheldon Williams - 63.308 (TOT - 57.137)

Renaldo Balkman - 35.484 (TOT - 53.839)

Anthony Carter - 52.201 (TOT - 47.340)

Jared Jeffries - –10.249 (TOT - 12.218)

--- Left:

Anthony Randolph - 62.682 (TOT - 75.196)

Danilo Gallinari - 73.530 (TOT - 73.438)

Wilson Chandler - 74.558 (TOT - 73.424)

Raymond Felton - 71.610 (TOT - 70.341)

Timofey Mozgov - 57.062 (TOT - 59.364)

Edited April 16, 2011 by Poe

[Poe]

Portland Trail Blazers: 48 - 34

 

LaMarcus Aldridge - 79.009

Wesley Matthews - 74.954

Brandon Roy - 74.059

Patrick Mills - 73.835

Nicolas Batum - 70.469

Andre Miller - 69.007

Rudy Fernandez - 68.034

Dante Cunningham - 56.429

Marcus Camby - 38.718

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Armon Johnson - 70.120 (38 games)

Sean Marks - 46.270 (29 games)

Luke Babbit - 65.484 (24 games)

Sean Marks - 46.270 (5 games)

 

Traded Players:

--- Acquired:

Gerald Wallace - 72.570 (TOT - 71.229)

Earl Barron - 54.304 (TOT - 60.622)

Jarron Collins - 00.269 (TOT - 36.430)

--- Left:

Chris Johnson - 36.430 (TOT - 47.966)

Joel Przybilla - –7.278 (TOT - –16.646)

[Poe]

New Orleans Hornets: 46 - 36

 

David West - 78.614

Marco Belinelli - 73.435

Chris Paul - 73.238

Willie Green - 72.196

Trevor Ariza - 64.636

Emeka Okafor - 63.451

Jason Smith - 62.558

Quincy Pondexter - 57.233

Aaron Gray - 50.717

Didier Ilunga-Mbenga - 33.736

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Patrick Ewing Jr. - 57.914 (7 games)

Pops Mensah-Bonsu - –45.191 (7 games)

 

Traded Players:

--- Acquired:

Jarrett Jack - 73.096 (TOT - 73.996)

Carl Landry - 75.124 (TOT - 72.540)

David Andersen - 67.482 (TOT - 67.108)

--- Left:

Marcus Thornton - 76.778 (TOT - 77.136)

Peja Stojakovic - 77.434 (TOT - 75.117)

Jerryd Bayless - 67.621 (TOT - 71.147)

Sasha Pavlovic - 23.515 (TOT - 45.327)

[Poe]

Memphis Grizzlies: 46 - 36

 

Zach Randolph - 78.001

Rudy Gay - 75.282

Darrell Arthur - 73.139

O.J. Mayo - 72.140

Tony Allen - 71.211

Mike Conley - 68.072

Sam Young - 66.748

Marc Gasol - 65.786

Greivis Vasquez - 57.664

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Hamed Haddadi - 72.101 (31 games)

 

Traded Players:

--- Acquired:

Leon Powe - 80.887 (TOT - 75.474)

Rodney Carney - 75.387 (TOT - 67.199)

Shane Battier - 67.482 (TOT - 51.848)

Ishmael Smith - 56.290 (TOT - 50.827)

Jason Williams - 39.010 (TOT - 40.788)

--- Left:

Marcus Thornton - 76.778 (TOT - 77.136)

Acie Law - 39.975 (TOT - 57.965)

DeMarre Carroll - 56.667 (TOT - 47.241)

Hasheem Thabeet - 14.916 (TOT - 14.454)

[Poe]

Philadelphia 76ers: 41 - 41

 

Louis Williams - 79.937

Thaddeus Young - 75.825

Marresse Speights - 74.650

Elton Brand - 72.957

Jrue Holiday - 69.193

Jodie Meeks - 68.741

Andre Iguodala - 68.557

Andres Nocioni - 65.703

Spencer Hawes - 65.612

Evan Turner - 62.929

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Tony Battie - 56.010 (38 games)

Jason Kapono - 39.734 (24 games)

Darius Songaila - 47.753 (10 games)

Antonio Daniels - 30.743 (4 games)

Craig Brackins - 66.368 (3 games)

[Poe]

Indiana Pacers: 37 - 45

 

Danny Granger - 78.589

Tyler Hansbrough - 75.511

Dahntay Jones - 74.121

Roy Hibbert - 72.708

Darren Collison - 71.128

A.J. Price - 70.668

Mike Dunleavy - 69.258

Paul George - 66.498

Brandon Rush - 64.161

Josh McRoberts - 60.527

T.J. Ford - 59.364

James Posey - 58.123

Jeff Foster - 38.640

 

Less than 41 Played Games:

Solomon Jones - 53.901 (39 games)

Lance Stephenson - 65.108 (12 games)

Edited April 16, 2011 by Poe

[Nitro]

House has been rated 4th on the Heat for a while now. I had questioned it myself until seeing him get a higher role in the offense against the Raptors (when the big three were resting). He went off for 35 points.

 

I think what allowed House to receive such a high rating is his ability to maneuver off screens, and be able to get off shots without much breathing room with his lightening-quick release, AND make them at a good enough percentage even when heavily contested.

 

But that's all he really does, and when that shot isn't falling he's a non-factor to score the ball. He can't create off the dribble, can't finish at the rim and he's a streak shooter.

 

Like for example, what specifically in Brown's offensive skillset makes him a worse overall scorer compared to Odom and Bynum?

 

He's not good enough creating his own shot to be a better scorer than Odom or Bynum, and it's not like he's Reggie Miller shooting the 3 ball, either. Odom has the skillset to be a consistent 15-20PPG scorer on solid shooting percentages, and Bynum is one of the best post players in the league. Brown is a good bench player, but you can't consistently put the ball in his hands and expect to score like you can with Odom and Bynum, and he's not an elite spot-up 3pt shooter to make up for that. And FYI, both Odom and Bynum scored more on FAR better efficiency this season than Brown did, so that should back up my argument enough.

 

 

This is what the rating should somehow conclude. The best overall scorer. Not necessarily the player with the highest volume or the best percentages.

 

If a player A scored with greater volume on better efficiency than player B, then I have no idea how you can statistically quantify player B being the better scorer...UNLESS you take into account different offensive systems and teammates and whatnot, but since your numbers are team-by-team, it doesn't make sense.

Edited April 16, 2011 by Nitro

[Poe]

Thank you, though I was hoping you would be more specific.

 

 

FYI, I'm not attempting to justify the ratings of Brown and House. I'm looking to see people's perceived flaws with it, and then determine whether or not the ratings are accurate enough overall.

 

In general, you cannot expect any advanced statistic to perfectly reflect a player's ability in any facet of basketball, though you can find ways to break it down to make it as accurate as possible, and it appears to me so far that the results have been extremely accurate, with only a few odd cases like Steve Novak and Leon Powe, though I accept the possibility that they both are much better scorers than the general public (and myself) initially thought.

 

 

But to further determine it's accuracy, I want more than just "this guy can be a 15-20 ppg scorer, and that guy is only a good bench player". I need a real scouting report on several players and compare them side-by-side, and truly understand why the results showed Brown > Odom and Bynum from an objective, "coaching"-like standpoint, and less based off who has the higher FG% or 3PT%.

[Nitro]

Thank you, though I was hoping you would be more specific.

 

FYI, I'm not attempting to justify the ratings of Brown and House. I'm looking to see people's perceived flaws with it, and then determine whether or not the ratings are accurate enough overall.

 

In general, you cannot expect any advanced statistic to perfectly reflect a player's ability in any facet of basketball, though you can find ways to break it down to make it as accurate as possible, and it appears to me so far that the results have been extremely accurate, with only a few odd cases like Steve Novak and Leon Powe, though I accept the possibility that they both are much better scorers than the general public (and myself) initially thought.

 

 

But to further determine it's accuracy, I want more than just "this guy can be a 15-20 ppg scorer, and that guy is only a good bench player". I need a real scouting report on several players and compare them side-by-side, and truly understand why the results showed Brown > Odom and Bynum from an objective, "coaching"-like standpoint, and less based off who has the higher FG% or 3PT%.

 

I think I was being specific enough...House can't do anything but shoot 3's at a streaky pace, and you can't put the ball in Brown's hands and expect him to score consistently like you can with Bynum and Odom. Volume is very important when you are rating a player's scoring ability, and Odom and Bynum are more capable of scoring at volume than Brown is, and they do it with much greater efficiency. I don't know how I can be more specific, especially since Brown is an undersized SG while Odom and Bynum play in the frontcourt (and Odom actually shot the 3 ball better than Brown this season, while being much better around the rim, so if you're looking for variety of ways to score effectively there is no way Brown should be ahead of Odom).

 

I mean, I don't really know what you're trying to get at. If you're talking about player-scouting, that's subjective, while stats are objective. You can look at Synergy Sports and use some of their advanced stats on how players shoot in certain areas of the floor, off PnR's, using their left hand, etc...but the fact of the matter is that volume and efficiency are ultimately the meat-and-bones of a player's scoring ability. All that other stuff can be a neat way of giving the stat some substance, but statistically speaking volume+efficiency is how you determine a scorer's effectiveness.

[Poe]

You make a good point.

 

As far as looking at Brown's and House's individual scoring game, I still feel you are being too general. If that's as specific as you can get, then that's all I ask of you.

[Nitro]

As far as looking at Brown's and House's individual scoring game, I still feel you are being too general. If that's as specific as you can get, then that's all I ask of you.

 

I don't know what more you want in regards to House...he can't finish at the rim, is poor at creating his own shot, and he's a streakier 3pt shooter than either Jones or Bibby. There is no way he should be ahead of Bibby when it comes to scoring ability.

 

As far as Brown goes, he's not a great 3pt shooter, he doesn't have much of a midrange game, and he's extremely streaky. And despite his athleticism and ability to finish at the rim, he doesn't get to the FT line much, which is huge when it comes to a player's ability to score. Overall, he's inefficient, doesn't have the IQ to be a legit volume scorer, and there is no way he should be ahead of Odom or Bynum. I don't know what more you want...to rate his spin moves?

[Poe]

I don't know what more you want...to rate his spin moves?

 

I didn't ask you to repeat the same points. I'm asking you to be more in-depth. What specifically in Brown's IQ makes him unable to handle as many scoring situations as Odom or Bynum, and how does that harm his rate of success?

 

So if that means rating his spin moves, then by all means. Does he attempt them often? Do they work as often as, say, Bynum's shimmy-hookshot? Is it as effective? Does it work against as many defenders?

 

 

And regarding House, in my mind, using screens is part of the ability to create a shot. How you use your teammates to score the ball is part of your scoring game. Maybe what you mean by create is by isolating and going strictly one-on-one against a lone defender? Perhaps this is a weaker area in House's game. But you also have to consider that perhaps his ability to use screens and be able to get shots off with the slightest breathing room, in the end, outweighs his inability to score one-on-one, and as a result he winds up with a better rating than the rest of the Heat's role players

[Nitro]

I didn't ask you to repeat the same points. I'm asking you to be more in-depth. What specifically in Brown's IQ makes him unable to handle as many scoring situations as Odom or Bynum, and how does that harm his rate of success?

 

First off, he simply doesn't have the skillset to be a key scorer. He's not a great 3pt shooter, and he too often settles for the quick 3 rather than attack the basket, where he is most effective. However, since he is a bit undersized, he can't finish at the rim as well as many of the great scorers in the league can, and he doesn't know how to draw contact to get to the FT line often. His ballhandling skills are adequate but not above-average, and he has no midrange game. He also doesn't have many polished pet-moves to get himself easy looks, so he usually just settles for a quick 3 or a reckless drive to the basket.

 

Bynum is an elite offensive post player in the league, with his size, soft touch and solid footwork. When he's healthy, he can be depended on to consistently score in the post (although he refuses to pass out of the post, but that has little to nothing to do with scoring ability). Odom is a mismatch athletically for most players at the 4, and his ability to handle the ball and make plays off the dribble makes him a difficult guard. He also shot the 3pt shot very well this year, and he also is good at getting 2nd chance opportunities off the glass.

 

In-depth enough?

 

And regarding House, in my mind, using screens is part of the ability to create a shot. How you use your teammates to score the ball is part of your scoring game. Maybe what you mean by create is by isolating and going strictly one-on-one against a lone defender? Perhaps this is a weaker area in House's game. But you also have to consider that perhaps his ability to use screens and be able to get shots off with the slightest breathing room, in the end, outweighs his inability to score one-on-one, and as a result he winds up with a better rating than the rest of the Heat's role players

 

I meant with the ball he cannot create his own shot, and while he is very good at coming off screens and shooting with a quick trigger, he is inconsistent from 3pt range, somewhat nullifying his advantage in that department. Meanwhile, Bibby is a far more consistent 3pt threat, is much better at creating off the dribble, and is also better at finishing at the rim. I don't see why Bibby is lower than House.

[Erick Blasco]

It's hard for me to critique the method without really knowing what the method is.

 

It looks to me like it's possibly something that rates how good players are at creating their own shot while also accommodating free throw rate?

 

But when you see things like Lou Williams being rated better than Manu Ginobili I don't know how much credibility to give the stat.

[Erick Blasco]

First off, he simply doesn't have the skillset to be a key scorer. He's not a great 3pt shooter, and he too often settles for the quick 3 rather than attack the basket, where he is most effective. However, since he is a bit undersized, he can't finish at the rim as well as many of the great scorers in the league can, and he doesn't know how to draw contact to get to the FT line often. His ballhandling skills are adequate but not above-average, and he has no midrange game. He also doesn't have many polished pet-moves to get himself easy looks, so he usually just settles for a quick 3 or a reckless drive to the basket.

 

Bynum is an elite offensive post player in the league, with his size, soft touch and solid footwork. When he's healthy, he can be depended on to consistently score in the post (although he refuses to pass out of the post, but that has little to nothing to do with scoring ability). Odom is a mismatch athletically for most players at the 4, and his ability to handle the ball and make plays off the dribble makes him a difficult guard. He also shot the 3pt shot very well this year, and he also is good at getting 2nd chance opportunities off the glass.

 

In-depth enough?

 

 

 

I meant with the ball he cannot create his own shot, and while he is very good at coming off screens and shooting with a quick trigger, he is inconsistent from 3pt range, somewhat nullifying his advantage in that department. Meanwhile, Bibby is a far more consistent 3pt threat, is much better at creating off the dribble, and is also better at finishing at the rim. I don't see why Bibby is lower than House.

 

If free throw percentage is a key factor in the stat, Bibby has a real low percentage with the Heat while House is shooting 95% even though House hasn't taken many free throws at all this season.

[Poe]

In-depth enough?

 

Better. Thank you.

 

 

I meant with the ball he cannot create his own shot, and while he is very good at coming off screens and shooting with a quick trigger, he is inconsistent from 3pt range, somewhat nullifying his advantage in that department. Meanwhile, Bibby is a far more consistent 3pt threat, is much better at creating off the dribble, and is also better at finishing at the rim. I don't see why Bibby is lower than House.

 

As a Heat fan, I can say that while Bibby is better at finishing around the rim, he needs much more room to get his outside shot off than House. Actually, the majority of players in this league don't compare to House's quick trigger. He is one of the best in the league at it taking shots with an inch of room.

 

Also, Bibby isn't nearly as effective using off-ball screens as House. Actually, he is almost never used in such a way while on the Heat team.

 

So overall during the regular season, I would have to say House was better at scoring, though Bibby was the better overall basketball player. But I'm sure Bibby's rating exceeds House's earlier in his career.

 

 

Actually, I'll check now.

 

...

 

Back in 05-06, Bibby's SAR was 77.895.

[Poe]

But when you see things like Lou Williams being rated better than Manu Ginobili I don't know how much credibility to give the stat.

 

You can't expect perfection. Though I'm open to the possibility that Williams may be better at scoring the ball than Ginobili this year.

[Nitro]

If free throw percentage is a key factor in the stat, Bibby has a real low percentage with the Heat while House is shooting 95% even though House hasn't taken many free throws at all this season.

 

Neither of them take many FTA's, so FT% shouldn't mean much....Bibby has had a TS% of over .600 with the Heat, while House was at .535.

 

As a Heat fan, I can say that while Bibby is better at finishing around the rim, he needs much more room to get his outside shot off than House. Actually, the majority of players in this league don't compare to House's quick trigger. He is one of the best in the league at it taking shots with an inch of room.

 

Also, Bibby isn't nearly as effective using off-ball screens as House. Actually, he is almost never used in such a way while on the Heat team.

 

So overall during the regular season, I would have to say House was better at scoring, though Bibby was the better overall basketball player. But I'm sure Bibby's rating exceeds House's earlier in his career.

 

I don't know how House was better at scoring when Bibby shot 6% better from the only area of the floor House is effective at, and that's from 3. Again, House's quick trigger and ability to use screens is nice, but at the end of the day he's inconsistent from 3, and shoots below 40% from the field. Bibby is an ultra-consistent 3pt shooter, and is much better at making plays with the ball in his hands than House is.

[Poe]

I made one last adjustment to the rating. I think this may be the 6th adjustment I've made total since coming up with the concept. The changes of the ratings now from before are slight, but more accurate.

 

This is appears to be it, it's all I can do, and I trust the results.

 

 

BTW, some new results:

 

Eddie House - 60.042

Mike Bibby - 50.308

 

 

Shannon Brown - 66.497

Lamar Odom - 65.439

Andrew Bynum - 62.127

 

 

Which means, comparing all necessary scoring factors in their statistics and weighing them properly, Brown is the best scorer in this group, and Bibby is the worst. I trust the rating enough to believe that.

 

Some may have the opinion that Bynum is better at scoring than Brown, or Bibby is better at scoring than House, or that LeBron (now a 78.064) is better at scoring than Kobe (now a 79.417), but I go as far as to believe the rating to show the facts.

 

This season, House is a better scorer than Bibby, Brown is better at scoring than both Odom and Bynum, and Kobe is better at scoring than LeBron, and is probably still the best at it in the league. That is now the fact.

 

 

 

Edit: BTW, it may sound arrogant for me to say things like "this shit I just made up is fact", but once I am able to explain the process, it will make much more sense.

Edited April 18, 2011 by Poe

[Built Ford Tough]

May sound arrogant?

 

No, it makes you sound like a conceited prick, actually.

[Poe]

No, it makes you sound like a conceited prick, actually.

 

Same meaning basically. I think it should be apparent by now that I take very little priority in the impression I give of myself. Either way, you will look at all this in a different light in time.

 

 

Also, I am no longer sharing results on this forum. There was a reason I did this before, but at this point, I no longer see the personal benefit in doing so.

 

I will also eventually be deleting my previous results, since they are somewhat inaccurate and there is no reason for me to leave out false information.