2012 NBA First Overall Pick: The Case for Harrison Barnes

[Built Ford Tough]

In the 2nd part of ESPN's 3 part series of profiling the top 3 prospects in the 2012 NBA Draft, they took a look at UNC's sophomore small forward Harrison Barnes, who is currently ranked their 2nd ranked prospect.

 

From David Thorpe

 

Barnes does have All-Star and All-Defense potential wrapped up in a great body, along with a terrific attitude and work ethic. The 2012 draft might be deeper with elite talent, but it's still realistic a team will value a small forward such as Barnes enough to take him No. 1 overall.

 

As I wrote last season, he reminds me a lot of a slightly taller Paul Pierce, and he ended up being a better shooter as a freshman than Pierce was. For the last decade, Pierce has used strength, balance, craft and skill to dominate small forwards. He's grown into a top defender and is a career 37-percent shooter from 3-point range, averaging more than 18 points per game since his second NBA season.

 

Barnes looks like he's going to be big and powerful as he grows into his 6-foot-8 frame, which could take a while as he'll play his entire sophomore season at just 19 years of age. Not only will Barnes get stronger, he'll also likely get faster and quicker, which can only help his ability to slash and burn defenders off the dribble. He's extremely skilled for a man his size, enabling him to do things in the pick-and-roll game that many small forwards cannot. Combined with his shooting talent and feel for the game, he has the potential to be a top scorer for his team.

 

On defense, his upside is equal -- if not superior -- to that of his offense. Long, strong and agile, with quick feet, Barnes is practically the perfect formula for a wing defender. And he takes that part of the game seriously, contesting shooters and harassing ball handlers tenaciously. In a league that features so many great wing scorers, having an elite wing defender is a must. One who also has great shooting range and overall offensive talent is a rare find.

 

One concern is if Barnes does not show improvement as an offensive weapon, especially driving to the rim and finishing or getting fouled more often. Without those nuanced skills, he's more like Luol Deng than Pierce, which still means he'll be among the top six draft picks but certainly wouldn't be No. 1. His shooting is not so much of a concern, as he's already shown to have real skill in that area. Nor am I concerned he'll suddenly become a prima donna or a lazy defender. My guess is we'll see major improvement in his offensive game, which I've already been told he's shown in summer events.

 

 

From Fran Fraschilla

 

After struggling with his shot selection and his ability to finish around the basket, Barnes was shooting just 37 percent after his first 17 games. But he went nuts in the second half of his freshman season at precisely the same time fellow freshman and playmaker extraordinaire, Kendall Marshall, was inserted into the starting lineup. Barnes' shooting percentages skyrocketed, scoring 20 or more in eight of his last 18 games, including 40 points in an ACC tournament game.

 

While not blessed with scintillating athleticism, Barnes has prototype NBA small forward size and skills. And, while his numbers might not dramatically increase in his sophomore season because of the Tar Heels' great depth, Barnes has made enough big shots already in his career that he's a great security blanket for a team that believes it can win another national championship this season.

 

 

From Chad Ford

 

Barnes' early season struggles as a freshman caused a major backlash among NBA scouts. He struggled with his jump shot. His confidence waned and he disappeared for huge stretches of games. His game became one dimensional. Within a month, some scouts had dropped the Kobe comparisons and saddled him with a Marvin Williams comp instead. That's a pretty remarkable fall from grace.

 

But not everyone jumped off the bandwagon.

 

One NBA scout prophetically told me on Jan. 4 that Barnes was ready to blow up. "He's struggled, but I believe he's going to have a big second half of the season. He's been a guy that just has been trying to find his rhythm with a different system and a team filled with returning guys. I think North Carolina needs him to dominate to succeed in the ACC, and I think Roy Williams will help facilitate that. If he blows up, he'll be the No. 1 guy."

 

Barnes found his rhythm exactly two weeks later. Williams replaced starting point guard Larry Drew II with freshman Kendall Marshall. Marshall might be the best pure point guard in college basketball and from the get-go it was clear that Marshall's marching orders were to get Barnes going. The returns were instantaneous. In a game against Clemson on Jan. 18, Barnes hit a clutch triple down the stretch. The next game he hit the game-winner versus Miami despite a poor shooting night. Over the next three games he averaged 22.7 points and shot 57 percent from the field. In the NCAA tournament he averaged 21 points and eight rebounds and helped lead UNC to the Elite Eight.

 

Barnes followed up an impressive end to his season with a terrific performance this summer at Chris Paul's Elite Guard Camp.

 

"Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond both have incredible upside," one GM said. "But Harrison Barnes is the real deal, and he'll be ready to come into the NBA and impact the game right away. Davis and Drummond, for different reasons, will both be projects. Barnes is a much safer choice. Every team needs aggressive scorers at the wing position. How many really great small forwards are there in the league? I can count them on one hand. The fact that Barnes actually shows up on the defensive end is also huge. He's not Kobe. But he's not Marvin Williams either. I see him as a more confident, more skilled version of a guy like Danny Granger. I think he could easily average 25 ppg in the NBA."

 

They had a lot more to say about Barnes than they did Drummond considering there is more footage of him and he has had a full year of college under his belt already, so I'll just leave it with this to avoid ending up posting 90% of the article.

 

I'll post what they say about Anthony Davis, ESPN's #1 ranked prospect, in a couple of days.

Edited October 4, 2011 by The Great BFT

[AboveLegit]

I really thought Marshall deserved the starting job over Drew a lot earlier than January. He's able to get into the lane and draw defenders, which as the three writers said, helped Barnes find his rhythm on offense. I also believe he's one of the most fundamentally sound guards in all of college basketball.

 

I hope Barnes attacks the rim more this season, would love to see him become more aggressive with the ball. At times, he became very passive, and that's not going to help him at the NBA level. The biggest knock on him during the season was that he disappeared a lot in games, but I really think part of it has to do with Roy Williams rotation, it's always around 10 players deep, and it somewhat hurts Barnes' productivity. He also needs to improve as a playmaker, he turned the ball over a lot when double teamed, but the good thing about him is that he's not a ball stopper, once he gets it he knows exactly what to do.

 

He's also probably the only reason I was against the Wizards picking Vesely, but if everything goes according to plan, we won't be in a position to draft him anyway.

[Jenneral]

He'd be my guy, for sure.

[420mayne]

Andre Drummond has been talked about for YEARS as the next great center. Interesting to see how he does in college this year, but he will probably be the number one pick if he isn't a bust.