The Problem With Austin Rivers

[Built Ford Tough]

A great article from Sebastian Pruiti of Grantland. A very good read and really does a nice job of breaking down Rivers' first few games with Duke, complete with videos, diagrams and photos. I definitely suggest taking 5 minutes to read it if you are at all interested in reading about Rivers.

 

Austin Rivers, ESPN's no. 3-rated recruit, came to Duke as one of the most hyped freshmen in the school's storied history. Given his immense profile and his pedigree, Rivers was expected to immediately contribute and fill the holes left by the departures of Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving. And if you just look at his scoring line, you'd say that Rivers has adjusted nicely, averaging 13.3 points per game. But those numbers don't tell the whole story — the truth is, Rivers has struggled, especially when it comes to taking the ball to the rack.

 

Rivers' 53 points have come on 37 shots and 58 possessions, according to Synergy Sports Technology. He has compiled a points per possession (PPP) rate of 0.879, good for 1,109th in college basketball. PPP is an effective way to judge efficiency because it takes every possession that ends with a shot, assist, or turnover and uses that to evaluate a player's performance. With stats like field goal percentage, you are only looking at shots attempted and aren't considering assists or turnovers. A player could have a fantastic field goal percentage, but if he's turning it over 75 percent of the time, that's not efficient. Stats like turnover percentage, obviously, do not factor in scoring ability. A player could do a great job of taking care of the basketball, but not shoot it well.

 

Strangely enough, Rivers' efficiency suffers when he takes the ball to the rim. The majority of these possessions have come out of isolation and pick-and-roll situations. Given his talents, which include a great first step, strong ball-handling skills, and elite jumping ability, you would think Rivers would be a very strong isolation player. But in those situations, which have made up 29.3 percent of Rivers' offensive possessions, Rivers is posting a PPP of 0.588, putting him in the bottom 25 percent among all college players. The tape doesn't lie, either — Rivers is great at creating and getting into space, but he struggles to finish, opting too many times to force up difficult shots in the lane.

 

In pick-and-roll situations, which make up 44.8 percent of Rivers' possessions, Rivers is actually playing pretty well, hitting on 68.8 percent of his shots and getting to the line 15.4 percent of the time. Numbers like this usually put you at the top of any efficiency list. Rivers, somehow, only cracks the 82nd percentile. The reason? Turnovers. Rivers is turning the basketball over 23.1 percent of the time when coming off of a ball screen, a rate that has not only hurt his efficiency, but has disrupted Duke's offensive rhythm.

 

For the most part, these problems have been a result of bad decisions. It's early in his career, but Rivers has not yet shown the ability to hit the open man, and oftentimes finds himself in low-percentage one-on-one situations with a bigger defender.

 

Read the rest of the article at:

 

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/10296/the-problems-with-austin-rivers