Just how big is one extra shot per game?

[Real Deal]

I found this pretty interesting, when I was in a debate the other day...took a look at some numbers, threw some extras out there, and discovered this.

 

If Kobe (just an example, usually goes for any big-name scorer) would make just ONE extra shot per game (say he goes 6-22 on a bad night, instead of 5-22)...

 

He would increase his shooting percentage by 5%.

 

Last season (82 games):

 

740-1639 FG, 45.1% shooting

 

740 + 82 (one shot per game) = 822

 

822-1639 = 50.2% shooting

 

How important is the one extra make? Well, if it's in the last minute of the game, sure...it's huge. First quarter, six minutes to go? Would the game really change that much? It's hard to say, even when the game is won by 1-2 points (adjustments could be made earlier, players taken out earlier, etc).

 

We always talk about how bad ass it is when guards shoot 50% from the floor (like so many did in the 80's and early 90's), but is it really that big of a deal? One extra make per game?

 

Anymore, I find it hard to believe that the gap between 45% and 50% shooting is THAT significant.

[Nitro]

Well, let's use Kobe as an example...last season, the Lakers were an elite team, so losses were few. However, they lost 4 games by 3pts or less (which is the range of that one shot could be). That's pretty significant, and of course when the playoffs roll around and games are even tighter, that one extra shot means even more. Still, 4 wins by one player making one extra shot per game is a huge jump.

 

What I tend to look for more is consistency. Players with lower shooting percentage tend to be less consistent than players with higher shooting percentage. That's important.

[Real Deal]

Well, let's use Kobe as an example...last season, the Lakers were an elite team, so losses were few. However, they lost 4 games by 3pts or less (which is the range of that one shot could be). That's pretty significant, and of course when the playoffs roll around and games are even tighter, that one extra shot means even more. Still, 4 wins by one player making one extra shot per game is a huge jump.

IF that shot comes at the end of the game. That is really the only way we can be sure that shot changes the loss to a win (or, actually a tie if we're talking 2-3 points...which doesn't guarantee anything).

 

What I tend to look for more is consistency. Players with lower shooting percentage tend to be less consistent than players with higher shooting percentage. That's important.

Well, sure...but there are guys that shoot 42% consistently, also.

[Nitro]

IF that shot comes at the end of the game. That is really the only way we can be sure that shot changes the loss to a win (or, actually a tie if we're talking 2-3 points...which doesn't guarantee anything).

 

Well if you are going to add those 82 shots evenly over 82 games, then yes, it does only affect games that are decided within one shot. Last season, one extra shot by Kobe would have definitely won 2 games, could have won a 3rd, and could have tied the 4th. At the very worst, that's 2 extra wins for his team. Imagine how many wins Miami would have last season if you add one extra shot to LeBron or Wade's total?

 

Bottom line is one extra FGM is likely going to be about 2.2PPG added to a team's total output. That's significant. There are other ways you can spread it out...like add the FGM to games only where they lost below 10pts. If you do it that way, you can add about 10 wins to most teams, if not more. This whole premise is a little faulty.

Edited January 19, 2012 by Nitro

[Real Deal]

Well if you are going to add those 82 shots evenly over 82 games, then yes, it does only affect games that are decided within one shot. Last season, one extra shot by Kobe would have definitely won 2 games, could have won a 3rd, and could have tied the 4th. At the very worst, that's 2 extra wins for his team. Imagine how many wins Miami would have last season if you add one extra shot to LeBron or Wade's total?

Yeah, but again, those shots only assure you those wins if they are at the very end of the game.

 

If Kobe makes one extra shot, and it comes in the first quarter...that doesn't mean they will win the game they lost...it means the Lakers have two extra points in the first (and really, it doesn't even assure that).

 

What if the Lakers are up by one point going into the fourth, instead of being down one point? Maybe the opposing team brings in LeBron earlier, or Kobe sits a minute longer. Nobody can say that one extra shot changes a one-point finale.

 

My point is, unless the shot comes at the very end of the game, that one extra shot is not necessarily that significant...and because of that, the 5% difference isn't THAT big of a deal.

[Nitro]

Yeah, but again, those shots only assure you those wins if they are at the very end of the game.

 

If Kobe makes one extra shot, and it comes in the first quarter...that doesn't mean they will win the game they lost...it means the Lakers have two extra points in the first (and really, it doesn't even assure that).

 

What if the Lakers are up by one point going into the fourth, instead of being down one point? Maybe the opposing team brings in LeBron earlier, or Kobe sits a minute longer. Nobody can say that one extra shot changes a one-point finale.

 

My point is, unless the shot comes at the very end of the game, that one extra shot is not necessarily that significant...and because of that, the 5% difference isn't THAT big of a deal.

 

See, now you're twisting everything around. Yes, if Kobe was more efficient, some of those games would have changed, coaching strategy would change, etc... But, you said does that ONE shot make a difference and used Kobe last season as an example. I showed you how, if you spread those 82 shots out evenly, they would have statistically won 2 more games, and possibly won 2 more. Either way it's over 160+ points on the season. Those points are bound to fetch a few extra wins.

 

Bottom line is one extra FGM is over 2PPG for wing players. That's a BIG difference by one player. That's like Dwight going from a 50% FT shooter to 70%. It would bring Kobe's scoring average from 25.3PPG to about 27.5PPG.

 

But, because my viewpoint hurts your new arguement in any Kobe threads, I'm sure you'll continue to fight the significance of a 5% increase in FG%.

[Real Deal]

I showed you how, if you spread those 82 shots out evenly, they would have statistically won 2 more games, and possibly won 2 more. Either way it's over 160+ points on the season. Those points are bound to fetch a few extra wins.

 

I never twisted anything. I've been saying it the entire time...you can't prove to me that one shot in the first quarter would change the entire outlook of a one-point loss. Maybe Kobe takes a couple of his shots after that, instead of the second quarter, and he tires quicker...or the Heat stick LeBron on him.

 

What I said is true. Unless that shot comes at the very end of a one-point game, to win it, there is no way you cay say an extra two points, in any minute of the 48, will change the result of the game. True or false?

 

So the difference between 45% and 50% is just 82 shots in an 82-game season. That's eye-opening.

 

Also, it's not about Kobe. I should have used another player, but the argument was about him from another site. Had I said Monta Ellis, I'm sure you would have related it all to Bryant, though.

[Nitro]

 

I never twisted anything. I've been saying it the entire time...you can't prove to me that one shot in the first quarter would change the entire outlook of a one-point loss. Maybe Kobe takes a couple of his shots after that, instead of the second quarter, and he tires quicker...or the Heat stick LeBron on him.

 

What I said is true. Unless that shot comes at the very end of a one-point game, to win it, there is no way you cay say an extra two points, in any minute of the 48, will change the result of the game. True or false?

 

So the difference between 45% and 50% is just 82 shots in an 82-game season. That's eye-opening.

 

Also, it's not about Kobe. I should have used another player, but the argument was about him from another site. Had I said Monta Ellis, I'm sure you would have related it all to Bryant, though.

 

There are so many variables that can come into play, but one thing doesn't change...

 

It's over 2PPG added to his team's scoring output. 160+ points a season. If you don't think that will add up to an extra win or two AT LEAST, that's signficant.

 

And that's just ONE PLAYER adding 5% to his FG%. One man on a roster that has about 15 different players play at one time or another during the season. To see how big 5% truly is, add it to 2-3 other players on the roster. Now you're talking about a MAJOR increase in offensive productivity. Completely changes the entire dynamic of the team.

 

If we are going to argue stats, you can't avoid those results. 5% for a volume scorer like Kobe is huge.

[Real Deal]

There are so many variables that can come into play, but one thing doesn't change...

 

It's over 2PPG added to his team's scoring output. 160+ points a season. If you don't think that will add up to an extra win or two AT LEAST, that's signficant.

Cool. One extra win, maybe two, possibly. Maybe Kobe's extra basket means he sits out a bit more for the third quarter, and the Lakers blow the lead a little more, and we may lose one game...who knows. But I digress.

 

And that's just ONE PLAYER adding 5% to his FG%. One man on a roster that has about 15 different players play at one time or another during the season. To see how big 5% truly is, add it to 2-3 other players on the roster. Now you're talking about a MAJOR increase in offensive productivity. Completely changes the entire dynamic of the team.

Welll, 6-9 points (three players doing this) is going to be more significant, and I never said I was going that far with it. That's basically adding 15% to Kobe's FG% (three extra makes). That's not the argument.

 

A two-point bucket in a tied game, final minute, doesn't necessarily put the game out of reach...but a 6-9 point run does. That's entirely different, no matter when it happens.

[Nitro]

Cool. One extra win, maybe two, possibly. Maybe Kobe's extra basket means he sits out a bit more for the third quarter, and the Lakers blow the lead a little more, and we may lose one game...who knows. But I digress.

 

 

Welll, 6-9 points (three players doing this) is going to be more significant, and I never said I was going that far with it. That's basically adding 15% to Kobe's FG% (three extra makes). That's not the argument.

 

A two-point bucket in a tied game, final minute, doesn't necessarily put the game out of reach...but a 6-9 point run does. That's entirely different, no matter when it happens.

 

If we are talking stats, you have to look at things matter-of-factly. It will add 2.2PPG to the team's offensive output...that is significant and will only help the team. To even insinuate it would hurt them (last part of first quote) is absolutely ridiculous. As I said, it's the basic equivilent of Dwight Howard going from a 50-70% FT shooter, which everyone would agree would be a huge improvement.

 

I'm done arguing this, the whole premise is kinda ridiculous, especially if we factor in the many "what-if" scenarios that come about during an NBA season. If we are talking stats, it adds over 2PPG to his individual and team's scoring output. That's a big improvement.

Edited January 19, 2012 by Nitro

[Real Deal]

If we are talking stats, you have to look at things matter-of-factly. It will add 2.2PPG to the team's offensive output...that is significant and will only help the team. To even insinuate it would hurt them (last part of first quote) is absolutely ridiculous. As I said, it's the basic equivilent of Dwight Howard going from a 50-70% FT shooter, which everyone would agree would be a huge improvement.

 

I'm done arguing this, the whole premise is kinda ridiculous, especially if we factor in the many "what-if" scenarios that come about during an NBA season. If we are talking stats, it adds over 2PPG to his individual and team's scoring output. That's a big improvement.

LOL, I'd stop arguing as well. If Howard became a 70% FT shooter, teams wouldn't pull the Hack-A-Shaq on him.

 

If you're not going to consider the possible changes made to offensive and defensive strategies (that are inevitable), there's no point in discussing it any further.

 

The best part of it all is, I could just distribute those shot makes in some of his worst games, or in blowouts against the Lakers, and make it even worse for you to argue against, but I won't.

 

Fun stuff. One extra shot per game isn't that impressive, anyway...that's the bigger picture, tossing everything else aside. That 50% shooting isn't that godly after all.

[Nitro]

LOL, I'd stop arguing as well. If Howard became a 70% FT shooter, teams wouldn't pull the Hack-A-Shaq on him.

 

If you're not going to consider the possible changes made to offensive and defensive strategies (that are inevitable), there's no point in discussing it any further.

 

The best part of it all is, I could just distribute those shot makes in some of his worst games, or in blowouts against the Lakers, and make it even worse for you to argue against, but I won't.

 

Fun stuff. One extra shot per game isn't that impressive, anyway...that's the bigger picture, tossing everything else aside. That 50% shooting isn't that godly after all.

 

Again, if you're going to paint with a broad brush, and want to use stats, you gotta deal with the bottom line...2.3PPG extra is a big increase from one player. It will most likely add to multiple wins. No, it won't add 5+ points to a players' stat line, but when comparing superstars, the difference does make for an advantage. And with all superstars not being terribly far apart, any advantage can make or break a comparison, and can make one player or another more productive/effective.

[Real Deal]

Nice. Keep that in mind the next time you talk about clutch stats. If every basket is equal, don't ever talk about clutch points again, or else I'll roll in with an opposing first-quarter run of points that rival someone like Wade's 15-point fourth quarter...and you really won't have anything to say about it, since points are points.

 

When I talk basketball, I consider everything, from strategies and fatigue to momentum and lineup changes. My apologies.

 

Even without the significance in games (yours or mine), one shot each game separates the 45's from the 50's...and that's quite funny when you consider just how blown up a 50% season is in topics discrediting anyone lower than that.

[Art]

 

Very interesting; on the subject of ball control I was looking at some stats yesterday and was very intrigued by how turnovers are calculated.

 

Hypothetically if Russell Westbrook shoots 14 / 26, has 3 turnovers, and 7 assists that is 16 or so turnovers from him alone.

 

So theoretically 26 shot attempts - 14 makes is 12 turnovers, plus the 3 traditional turnovers is 15 in total, and when you subtract his actual assist percentage you get 8 possible reasons why Oklahoma lost to the Wizards recently.

 

Oklahoma City had multiple reasons why they lost to Washington but when you look at the overal scheme of things those eight losses in posesion are big coming from your point man. .

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DXZ-eNrAoQ

Edited January 19, 2012 by Art Hues