ESPN's Future Power Rankings

[Sħãlïq™]

Saw this on one other board. The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons.

 

HOW FUTURE POWER RATING IS DETERMINED

PLAYERS (0 to 600 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departures

MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coaching

MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax

MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans

DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning

 

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed. Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,200, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

 

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

 

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating. At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.

 

One change for this edition: Now that so many big names have landed in more permanent places, we have increased the value of the Players category. This also rewards teams like Oklahoma City, Memphis and Philadelphia that have successfully built their rosters already with young talent. Of course, we still recognize that teams like Dallas, Houston and New Jersey (future: Brooklyn) have the money and the motivation to spend, and can make a lot of noise in the coming years -- and we still reward teams for strong management, salary cap space and so on. Here are the latest rankings:

 

1. Oklahoma City THUNDER | Future Power Rating: 845

 

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/trans/okc.gif

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT

550 (1st) 189 (1st) 55 (24th) 43 (17th) 8 (29th)

 

What's amazing about the Thunder is that they have the league's best record even though their four best players are 23, 23, 22 and 22. Most of their role players are young, too -- Daequan Cook, Reggie Jackson, Eric Maynor and Cole Aldrich all are 24 or younger, and Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha aren't exactly fossils at 27. If you want to know why we rated their players first, ahead of Miami's, that's why. OKC's core is only going to get better over the next three years, which is what puts it at the top of our rankings.

Well, that, and the management, which we rated ahead of San Antonio's by a nose -- the first time the Spurs have been topped in this category. Of course, San Antonio can still claim victory in a way -- Sam Presti and owner Clay Bennett used the Spurs' blueprint to build this team. Under Presti the Thunder have yet to make a false move, patiently building a winner out of the McMillan-era Sonics' ashes and exquisitely managing their cap.

They'll face some tougher decisions in the future, as contract extensions for James Harden and Serge Ibaka may force them to shed other deals to sidestep the luxury tax (including potentially granting amnesty to Perkins). That's where the money and market come in, and neither is in the Thunder's favor.

But despite the small market, management will spend up to a point. Additionally, this has become something of a desirable market solely because it's such a well-run, professional operation and it offers a chance at a ring. For all those reasons, we rate the Thunder as having the brightest future of the league's 30 teams. (Previous rank: 2)

 

 

2. Miami HEAT | Future Power Rating: 827

 

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PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT

426 (2nd) 184 (3rd) 19 (30th) 95 (2nd) 3 (30th)

 

As you might have guessed, we're optimistic about Miami's future. It's hard not to be when there are three superstars as the centerpiece; because of the Superfriends trio of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, we rated Miami's players second despite there being fairly little help around them. The cupboard isn't completely bare, however, as rookie point guard Norris Cole looks like a keeper.

More importantly, the Heat have a number of secondary advantages. Start with their market; between the low taxes, sunny weather and chance for a ring, Miami rates as the second-most desirable market after the L.A. Lakers. Additionally, the Heat are a well-run shop; Pat Riley is one of the league's most respected execs and Erik Spoelstra has proved his mettle on the sidelines.

Unfortunately, the Heat will have a hard time acquiring talent given their cap and draft situation. They're in luxury-tax territory the next three seasons, and owner Micky Arison has historically been reluctant to spend beyond that limit. And the draft? Forget it. The Heat owe a 2013 first-rounder to Cleveland and likely will be picking somewhere between 28th and 30th in the other two years. (Previous rank: 3)

 

3. Chicago BULLS | Future Power Rating: 817

 

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PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT

519 (3rd) 165 (5th) 30 (28th) 88 (4th) 15 (28th)

 

Although the Bulls find themselves third after claiming the No. 1 spot in our rankings last March by a narrow margin over the Thunder, the difference between them and the two teams above remains negligible. There is still a lot to be bullish about in Chicago.

The roster is headlined by reigning MVP Derrick Rose, who is having a better season this year and will continue to mature and become an even more potent weapon. Joakim Noah and Luol Deng are also both young and productive. And Carlos Boozer should be a solid contributor for the next few years as well.

They'll need a younger replacement at the 2-guard position soon (Richard Hamilton turns 34 next week and is sporting the lowest PER of his career), but overall we feel their No. 3 roster ranking is well-deserved. If they could somehow manage to package some of their depth and turn it into Dwight Howard, they'd likely regain the top spot on our charts.

The Bulls also continue to move up the rankings in management (up from No. 8 to No. 5) thanks to the job coach Tom Thibodeau is doing. Not only does he have the Bulls playing better defense, but he's proved he can keep the offense humming at the same time. Chicago has the pieces to win an NBA championship, and that will likely remain the case for the next three to four years. Only the Thunder and the Heat, and possibly the Clippers, can really say the same. (Previous rank: 1)

 

 

4. Lob Angeles CLIPPERS | Future Power Rating: 749

 

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PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT

479 (4th) 81 (16th) 92 (18th) 80 (5th) 17 (27th)

 

The Clippers are eight spots ahead of the Lakers? Yes, the times are changing in L.A. It's very possible the Clips will be Southern California's top basketball team over the next three seasons, as they've positioned themselves for a very strong run. Let's start with the players. We ranked the Clippers fourth based on the superstar nucleus of Blake Griffin and Chris Paul; while we wished they had a bit more help, the supporting cast at least possesses some solid complementary pieces and trade assets. And the market rates fifth, as the combination of coming to L.A. and playing for a winner should be a powerful lure -- as it was in their recent signing of Kenyon Martin.

 

Finally, the Clippers are in pretty good financial position for a contending team. They're well under the tax line and should feel free to add players via exceptions over the next couple of years, filling the roster holes on the wings and at backup center.

 

The worry, alas, is that these are the Clippers and they'll find a way to screw it up. We rated L.A. 16th in management, and that might have been kind. While GM Neil Olshey has mostly done good work, owner Donald Sterling is a buffoon's buffoon and head coach Vinny Del Negro still seems overmatched. The latter has an expiring deal and may not be retained, but the Clips may have trouble getting somebody better given The Donald's history of not paying his former coaches.

(Previous rank: 9)

 

 

5. Indiana PACERS | Future Power Rating: 748

 

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PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT

399 (7th) 130 (10th) 141 (7th) 41 (18th) 37 (20th)

 

We continue to get more excited about the roster Larry Bird and David Morway have put together. While there are no superstars, the team is incredibly deep and plays well together. Danny Granger is in his prime, David West brings leadership, Roy Hibbert is playing like an All-Star, Darren Collison continues to improve, Tyler Hansbrough brings manic energy, George Hill (when healthy) has given the team a scorer off the bench, and Paul George may very well be the best player on this team in another year, if not one of the best players in the league -- he has that much potential.

The team continues to be prudent with its money, too, and still has significant cap room to add other pieces. Adding one more scorer could put the Pacers in serious contention for the Eastern Conference crown.

But it's the Pacers' jump in management score that moved them up to No. 5. Owner Herb Simon remains committed to putting a winning team on the floor, which means the front office has the green light to spend if it's on the right guy. And while no one had heard of Frank Vogel before last season, he's quickly looking like one of the best up-and-coming coaches in the NBA. He doesn't get enough credit for his contribution to the unselfish culture on the Pacers.

Bird, however, deserves the lion's share of the credit. Is this the year the three-time NBA MVP and former coach of the year completes the triple crown and takes home executive of the year honors? It's hard to think of anyone else who deserves it more. (Previous rank: 5)

 

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Edited February 8, 2012 by Šhãłïq

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