Top 20 Sophomores Ranking

[Sħãlïq™]

Over time, some draft classes will give the league multiple superstars, but most produce 15 or so quality players who last for a decade or so in the NBA, with perhaps a star or two mixed in. For the class of 2010, though, aspiring to be even average may be too heady, despite gaining one phenom from the previous year thanks to an injury. For starters, five of the guys who went in the lottery are no-shows on our top 20 list just a year after the draft. By my count, 22 of the first-round picks are in danger of not even sticking in the NBA for five years. That's bad. Still, there are success stories, while others are showing signs of life and can be counted on to represent this class until 2020 and beyond. Who stands tallest today and who might be making waves in the future? Let's explore. The top two:

 

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers

As if there's another choice? This class is exceedingly weak by any measurement, except one: star power -- thanks to Griffin. Griffin is still racking up monster plays in the paint and finishing even better than he did last season, though some of that is due to the Clippers' upgrade at point guard. He's breathtaking when he attacks the rim, which is often, and he's one of the two most feared big men to tangle with in the NBA, along with Dwight Howard.

Unfortunately, he shares something else in common with Howard. Griffin's free throw percentage has dropped significantly and is now even lower than any of Dwight's end-of-season percentages. In addition, Blake shoots too many perimeter jumpers, zones out too often on help-side defense and doesn't make nearly enough impact plays defensively (he ranks 94th in steals per game and 52nd in blocks). His poor defense is a big part of why the Clippers are a bottom-six defensive team. Still, I'd be a fool to get caught up in his negatives, because he's one of the most electrifying players in basketball and a good part of why the Clippers are a top-six offensive team.

I expect solid improvement from Griffin on the defensive side of the ball as the season evolves, as he begins to understand the importance of every possession (he did not play many meaningful games last season). I also don't think we'll see as many long jumpers come later in the season, and he'll make more of the ones he shoots. That comes with experiencing pain from tough losses, which will force him to exercise better shot selection.

The one question I have come playoff time will be about his free throws. Lack of improvement there could be a killer come spring. Of course, even if he drops to 25 percent from the line, he'll still be the best player in this class.

 

2. Greg Monroe, Pistons

How good has Monroe been this year? Not good enough to get Detroit out of the bottom five of the league, unfortunately, but I'll tell you this: If Detroit was a better team, then Blake Griffin would have some competition for "best of class." Monroe is top 12 in the NBA in PER and offensive rebound rate and top 20 in overall rebound rate. And while Detroit is an awful defensive team, only Ben Wallace is playing better defense than Monroe, who has to carry an offensive burden far more than Wallace does. There are still questions about how Monroe would perform on a better team, or if he's good enough to be a top-three player on a good team. But all things considered, no one in this class besides Griffin can touch Monroe right now. Top candidates to one day replace Griffin as tops of this class

 

3. John Wall, Wizards

When he's on, he's untouchable. Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, John Wall. That's the list of elite athletes with size at the point guard spot. Wall is the fastest of the three, to my eye, and the best natural passer. So yes, he's got multiple All-Star appearances in his near future, if he and his franchise get things figured out. Simply put, the Wizards have steered off course -- which might be by design -- and Wall has taken a step backward this year. Not his overall game, but his shooting. He still can't shoot and is not a great paint finisher, either. There's every reason to believe he'll improve this part of his game, but until he does, he just can't be nearly as effective on offense.

 

4. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings

There are those who believe that some players are "coach killers" -- guys that are good enough to raise expectations but who rarely deliver, so consequently they get their coach fired. I, too, believe in that concept. However, I do not put Cousins in that category. At least not yet. He may be enigmatic, but Cousins is still efficient and productive and has been more under control this season. There aren't five tougher guys to keep off the offensive glass than Cousins, and if he'd learn to explode when finishing, he'd be even tougher to stop in the paint. He gets over six shots per game near the rim, but makes just half of them.

 

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[DunkinDerozan]

Kind of surprised to see Monroe at #2. He doesn't get much attention compared to John Wall and Demarcus Cousins.