What Does Demar Derozan's Future Hold?

[DunkinDerozan]

http://raptorswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/940-derozan-demar-8col.jpg

 

 

Demar has had a lot of ups and downs up to this point in the season. At his best, he’s been brilliant, putting up points in the 20’s several times and having good shooting percentages. At his worst, he’s an absolute non factor, scoring well under 10 points and shooting abysmal numbers.

 

When the season first started, he appeared to be picking up right where he left off last season. He averaged 18.5 PPG in his first six games. His ability to drive was still there,and he was drawing fouls while doing so. His three pointer was vastly improved as well. He was able to hit 10 three’s in the first six games. Raptors fans were very excited, considering he only hit 5 all of last season. Demar was on a serious upswing.

 

Then the struggles started. In his next three games, Demar never scored more more then 10 points. His shooting percentages were awful, and he just couldn’t score. Whenever he took a shot, it seemed to always be a contested one that you knew wasn’t going in. It was one of a few rough spots so far this year.

 

He’s been off and on, good and bad throughout the season. Raptors management, coaches, players and fans all want to know which Demar Derozan are we going to be seeing in the future.

 

If he can stay consistent, he could really be a great piece of what will hopefully turn into a contending team at some point. If he can’t, then his time in Toronto could be numbered.

 

As of late, he’s been more consistent then not, which is great. In the month of February, he’s averaged 18 PPG, which is exactly where I, and most other Raptors fans expect and hope of him. He’s been able to carry a lot of the offensive load, which is important considering Toronto’s best player Andrea Bargnani has been out for a very extended period of time.

 

With the draft this season, there are going to be a lot of things for the Raptors management need to think about and consider. There are a few great SG’s that will all be projected in right around the Raptors pick this season. Guys like Jeremy Lamb, Bradley Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all being right around the Raptors pick, they are going to have to make some tough decisions.

 

Will Demar Derozan be the Raptors starting SG for the foreseeable future? Or will the Raptors be forced to draft a guy who could turn out to be his replacement.

 

The answer to that question will most likely be solved over the next few months. The Raptors quite obviously know that they are not in any position to be challenging for a playoff spot. The rest of the season will be not be much more then a tryout for a lot of guys. Especially Demar.

 

If Derozan can stay consistent and continue to improve, he will be a key part of the Raptors future.

[Need4Sheed]

He isnt going to be much until he leaves Toronto.

 

Think about it, when have they ever been relevant and what players made it big there?

 

Vince Carter and T-Mac? lol

[DunkinDerozan]

He isnt going to be much until he leaves Toronto.

 

Think about it, when have they ever been relevant and what players made it big there?

 

Vince Carter and T-Mac? lol

 

If all Raptors fans had that mindset, there wouldn't be many Raptors fans. Basically being a fan of a team thats not in exactly a popular market, you just have to hope that the team will find players that will stay because they are loyal, and don't need the attention of all the league to be happy.

[Nitro]

Demar is at a crossroads in his NBA career. He has proven this season that he just doesn't have the capabilities to be a go-to scorer on even a bad NBA team...he lacks a consistent jumper, isn't a great ballhandler and lacks the ability and instincts in iso situations. The big issue is that he doesn't impact the game anywhere else. He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but he doesn't have the proper mechanics or instincts. With his length and athleticism, he should be grabbing at least 6RPG, yet this season he's averaging only half that. And as I stated before, he isn't a great ballhandler and he doesn't have the vision to be an effective playmaker.

 

All of that adds up to a pretty ineffective NBA player, and one that could never be an impact player on a good playoff team. If he wants to advance his career, he desperately needs to mold his game after a guy like Trevor Ariza. Derozan has all the tools to be a great energy guy who can impact the game defensively, on the boards, on the fastbreak, off cuts within the offense, and occasionally being able to generate his own offense if he needs to. Unless he makes HUGE improvements, he will never be an effective 2nd or 3rd option on a great team, so he needs to become proficient in all other aspects of the game. How Ariza performed on the Lakers is exactly what Derozan needs to do. With his physical tools, if he puts all his energy into the "dirty work", while being opportunistic offensively and playing off his teammates, he can be a difference-maker despite not being the 20-25PPG guy a lot of Raptors fans were envisioning.

 

As for his future with the Raptors...unless management/coaches realize what he needs to be once they get enough pieces to be a playoff team, and start coaching him up to be that player, they should trade him while his value is still high and he's on his rookie contract.

[DunkinDerozan]

Demar is at a crossroads in his NBA career. He has proven this season that he just doesn't have the capabilities to be a go-to scorer on even a bad NBA team...he lacks a consistent jumper, isn't a great ballhandler and lacks the ability and instincts in iso situations. The big issue is that he doesn't impact the game anywhere else. He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but he doesn't have the proper mechanics or instincts. With his length and athleticism, he should be grabbing at least 6RPG, yet this season he's averaging only half that. And as I stated before, he isn't a great ballhandler and he doesn't have the vision to be an effective playmaker.

 

All of that adds up to a pretty ineffective NBA player, and one that could never be an impact player on a good playoff team. If he wants to advance his career, he desperately needs to mold his game after a guy like Trevor Ariza. Derozan has all the tools to be a great energy guy who can impact the game defensively, on the boards, on the fastbreak, off cuts within the offense, and occasionally being able to generate his own offense if he needs to. Unless he makes HUGE improvements, he will never be an effective 2nd or 3rd option on a great team, so he needs to become proficient in all other aspects of the game. How Ariza performed on the Lakers is exactly what Derozan needs to do. With his physical tools, if he puts all his energy into the "dirty work", while being opportunistic offensively and playing off his teammates, he can be a difference-maker despite not being the 20-25PPG guy a lot of Raptors fans were envisioning.

 

As for his future with the Raptors...unless management/coaches realize what he needs to be once they get enough pieces to be a playoff team, and start coaching him up to be that player, they should trade him while his value is still high and he's on his rookie contract.

 

I never expected him the #1 be a go-to scorer on the Raptors. I still think he's got the potential to be the third go-to guy or so, maybe 4th. He shjowed last year that he can have a good mid-range jumper, and he's shown this year he can have a decent 3-point shot. All he's got to do is be able to develop both of them into his game instead of only being able to have one of those aspects to his game. You're right about not having great handles, but he's still young. You kind of make it sound like he's 25 or 26 years old, and he is still struggling. He can still improve his game.

 

If he turns out being an Ariza-type player, then thats alright too. I'd rather that than being an absolute bust. The thing is, Ariza has never averaged more than 14.0 PPG, and it took him 8 seasons to do that. Derozan averaged 17.2 PPG in only his second season in the NBA. I think it's a low chance that Derozan doesn't turn out to be at the least, a 12-15 PPG player.

[Nitro]

I never expected him the #1 be a go-to scorer on the Raptors. I still think he's got the potential to be the third go-to guy or so, maybe 4th. He shjowed last year that he can have a good mid-range jumper, and he's shown this year he can have a decent 3-point shot. All he's got to do is be able to develop both of them into his game instead of only being able to have one of those aspects to his game. You're right about not having great handles, but he's still young. You kind of make it sound like he's 25 or 26 years old, and he is still struggling. He can still improve his game.

 

I understand he can improve, and as I said in my last post he really needs to improve the non-scoring aspects of his game. If you are not a legit 1st or 2nd scoring option, then you have to be proficient in other areas in order to be an impact player on a good team. 3pt shooters and big men who can catch and finish are the exceptions to this, although even they are somewhat situational unless they are effective in other areas. Players whose main attribute is to score at low efficiency and ineffectively in iso situations don't last long, and are the types of players that can rarely be a positive on a good playoff team.

 

If he puts a lot more effort and practice into rebounding and defense, and becomes effective and impactful in both areas, he will have a bright future. But I can't see him ever being an effective 20PPG scorer. He may get that forced on him, and he may be able to produce those 20PPG on bad efficiency, but he'll never be in that role and on a good playoff team at the same time.

 

If he turns out being an Ariza-type player, then thats alright too. I'd rather that than being an absolute bust. The thing is, Ariza has never averaged more than 14.0 PPG, and it took him 8 seasons to do that. Derozan averaged 17.2 PPG in only his second season in the NBA. I think it's a low chance that Derozan doesn't turn out to be at the least, a 12-15 PPG player.

 

The last 2 seasons Derozan has taken more FGA's than Ariza ever has. The one season Ariza took close to the number of shots Derozan has the last 2 seasons he was at 14.9PPG.

[Art]

I like Demar's effort personally; on a defensive minded veteran team I think he would be great.

Edited February 22, 2012 by Art Hues

[Check my Stats]

One part of me questions how much better he can get because he has so many limitations. But another part of me is encouraged because this is a kid who averaged 17 PPG last year on 47% from the field (how is this inefficient? 81% from the line too.), and did this IN SPITE of all his limitations.

 

I was hoping to see him take a big step this year, but he hasn't shown near the improvement that you expect/hope from a guy going from his 2nd to 3rd year. To be fair, the environment is entirely different this year, there is accountability defensively, and Triano was a cupcake.

 

The last 2 seasons Derozan has taken more FGA's than Ariza ever has. The one season Ariza took close to the number of shots Derozan has the last 2 seasons he was at 14.9PPG.

 

Yeah and Ariza shot 39% that year. I think the problem is that you are looking at that 40% next to Demar's name and thinking that is because of an increased role or something, like Ariza. It's not. He shot 47% last year in the exact same role as the 2nd offensive option. He got off to a bad start. New coach, new system, new culture. If you want to knock Demar's handle, defense, IQ, vision, etc, that is fine. But to call him an inefficient scorer I think is wrong. Especially when you consider the potential he shows in getting to the line often (he also gets abused by officials very often).

 

Sorry, but I will take the full season sample of last years %'s over the 30 games so far this year.

 

I don't disagree with your other post, but I am reserving judgement on him still. He is a gym rat, and while he hasn't taken the steps in his game that I had hoped, I still think he can be a productive scorer in this league. Especially because he is pretty effective at playing off the ball (he is a bad one on one iso scorer as of today).

 

For what it is worth, over the last 9 games he is averaging 20.4 PPG on 49% from the field. This includes 29 vs SAS, 21 vs BOS and 25 vs MIA. By no means is this a huge sample size, but at the same time I consider it encouraging. These are the types of numbers he was putting up last year in the second half. He still has a long ways to go, but I don't think scoring is his biggest issue at this point to be honest.

 

I just think this year Casey might be making his stats less pretty than if Triano was still coach, but long-term I think Demar is going to be a much better player than under a coach like Jay.

Edited February 23, 2012 by Check my Stats

[DunkinDerozan]

One part of me questions how much better he can get because he has so many limitations. But another part of me is encouraged because this is a kid who averaged 17 PPG last year on 47% from the field (how is this inefficient? 81% from the line too.), and did this IN SPITE of all his limitations.

 

I was hoping to see him take a big step this year, but he hasn't shown near the improvement that you expect/hope from a guy going from his 2nd to 3rd year. To be fair, the environment is entirely different this year, there is accountability defensively, and Triano was a cupcake.

 

 

 

Yeah and Ariza shot 39% that year. I think the problem is that you are looking at that 40% next to Demar's name and thinking that is because of an increased role or something, like Ariza. It's not. He shot 47% last year in the exact same role as the 2nd offensive option. He got off to a bad start. New coach, new system, new culture. If you want to knock Demar's handle, defense, IQ, vision, etc, that is fine. But to call him an inefficient scorer I think is wrong. Especially when you consider the potential he shows in getting to the line often (he also gets abused by officials very often).

 

Sorry, but I will take the full season sample of last years %'s over the 30 games so far this year.

 

I don't disagree with your other post, but I am reserving judgement on him still. He is a gym rat, and while he hasn't taken the steps in his game that I had hoped, I still think he can be a productive scorer in this league. Especially because he is pretty effective at playing off the ball (he is a bad one on one iso scorer as of today).

 

For what it is worth, over the last 9 games he is averaging 20.4 PPG on 49% from the field. This includes 29 vs SAS, 21 vs BOS and 25 vs MIA. By no means is this a huge sample size, but at the same time I consider it encouraging. These are the types of numbers he was putting up last year in the second half. He still has a long ways to go, but I don't think scoring is his biggest issue at this point to be honest.

 

I just think this year Casey might be making his stats less pretty than if Triano was still coach, but long-term I think Demar is going to be a much better player than under a coach like Jay.

 

Great post. I agreed with everything you said.

 

One little thing i'd like to say about last nights game. Even though I know it was only one game, Demar showed a signifigant improvement in his mid-range jumpers compared to the rest of the year. Hopefully he can keep that up.

[Nitro]

this is a kid who averaged 17 PPG last year on 47% from the field (how is this inefficient? 81% from the line too.)

 

Overall, he wasn't particularly efficient or inefficient last season...the lack of 3pt shot killed his efficiency (.530 TS% last season).

 

This season he's under a .500 TS% which is awful for someone who takes as many shots as he does.

 

I think the problem is that you are looking at that 40% next to Demar's name and thinking that is because of an increased role or something, like Ariza. It's not. He shot 47% last year in the exact same role as the 2nd offensive option. He got off to a bad start. New coach, new system, new culture. If you want to knock Demar's handle, defense, IQ, vision, etc, that is fine. But to call him an inefficient scorer I think is wrong. Especially when you consider the potential he shows in getting to the line often (he also gets abused by officials very often).

 

Sorry, but I will take the full season sample of last years %'s over the 30 games so far this year.

 

Here's what I think- This season the Raptors are in the bottom 8th of the league in pace. Last season they were top 10.

 

This season, only 31% of Demar's shot attempts are in the first 10 seconds of the clock (compared to 37% last season), where easy shot opportunities from the fastbreak and unset defenses are at a premium....this area is especially important for a guy like Demar, who doesn't have any elite attributes in the halfcourt to create efficient offense for himself (besides maybe getting to the line). This season, 44% of his shot attempts are in the final 8 seconds of the shot clock, compared to 34% last season. The end of the shotclock is the hardest time to create easy offense.

 

Add it all up and I believe the pace is what's hurting him the most. I do think his role has changed a bit this season, with higher expectations and him being the primary scorer with Bargnani being out so much (I think this helped aid the extra 10% of his FGA's with 8 seconds or less...the go-to scorer is always the one stuck with the responsibility of scoring at the end of the shotclock). .

 

As it currently stands he is a poor 3pt shooter (eliminating him as a threat in catch-and-shoot opportunities), and he doesn't have the handles and ability to be effective in a slowed-down game and in iso situations. This is problematic, and has led to him being an inefficient scorer who takes quite a few attempts per game. I find little value in guys like Demar because the only area he can be really effective in as a scorer is when he gets those easy opportunities off of fast-paced offense. That is FINE...but he needs to get better elsewhere if he wants to make an impact on a good playoff team (not talking the barely .500 clubs).