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Duke vs. UNC: Winner Take All


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On Saturday night at 7PM EST, the 6th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels and 3rd ranked Duke Blue Devils will meet for the 234th time in their schools history. UNC leads the all-time series 131-102. However, the Blue Devils have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the two, including a thrilling 85-84 win on February 8th in Chapel Hill that saw an epic 10 point Duke comeback in the final 2 minutes that was capped off by a buzzer beating 3 pointer from star Duke Freshman Austin Rivers.

 

 

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Duke guard Austin Rivers before the February 8th matchup: “I'm going to have an impact.”

 

 

However, this time, there is more than just pride and bragging rights on the line.

 

When the Tar Heels and Blue Devils step on the floor of Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Atlantic Coast Conference regular season championship will be on the line. Both UNC and Duke are 13-2 in ACC play and this will mark the 6th time in history that these two fierce rivals will face off in the final regular season game with the ACC regular season title on the line. UNC currently holds a 3-2 record in these aforementioned games, including an 81-67 point win in last season's regular season finale. Tar Heel coach Roy Williams looks to improve his record to 3-0 in these winner take all showdowns.

 

 

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Current Dallas Mavericks center and Tar Heel alum Brendan Haywood: “I don't want to share the ACC title with anybody; especially Duke.”

 

 

As if the stakes needed to be any higher, the outcome of this game will not only determine the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, it will also have strong implications when it comes to a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament later this month. How's that for excitement?

 

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The two schools represent a stark contract in styles.

 

North Carolina relies heavily upon their size inside the paint. They feature one of the biggest, longest and most talented front courts in the NCAA. Senior Tyler Zeller, Junior John Henson and Sophomore Harrison Barnes are all 6'8 or taller and all three of them posses wingspans of 6'11 or greater.

 

The Heels score 39 points a game inside the paint, which is 1st among power conference teams. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils' defense struggles mightily at closing down the interior. They allow 32 points in the paint per game, which is 2nd worst among power conferences.

 

This statistic played a significant role in the first meeting this season as UNC outscored Duke 42-14 inside the paint. This interior dominance was the driving force behind North Carolina establishing and maintaining an 8-12 point lead throughout much of the 2nd half.

 

 

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Former North Carolina guard Joseph Forte: “They hate us, just like we hate them.”

 

 

While UNC will look to pound the ball inside, Duke will rely heavily upon the 3 point shot and their dynamic back court of Rivers, Junior Seth Curry and Junior Andre Dawkins.

 

North Carolina makes 5 3's a game while their opponents make 7.3. Duke makes 8.4 3's a game and shoots 39% from deep.

 

Much like UNC's paint dominance, Duke's long range bombing played a significant role in the first meeting this season. Curry, Rivers and Dawkins combined to shoot 12-23 from beyond the arc and the Blue Devils outscored the Tar Heels 42-3 from beyond the arc, including making 3 long range shots during the comeback, one of which was the game winner from Rivers as time expired.

 

Just how close are these two rivals? Well, the last 82 games that they have played, UNC has outscored Duke by a single point; 6,355 to 6,354. Duke beat UNC by a single point earlier this season. The 3 games these teams played against one another last season were decided by a combined 9 points; 221-212 in Duke's favour.

 

If these statistics foreshadow anything, it is that we should expect yet another close, hard fought battle in college basketball's most historic rivalry as these two Carolina schools, separated by just 8 miles, go to battle for ACC supremacy.

 

College broadcasting legend Dick Vitale summed it up best when he said:

 

“There's no greater rivalry in college basketball than Duke and North Carolina”

 

On Saturday night, a new chapter will be written in this historic rivalry.

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Hope it's like that first meeting, and UNC wins, so we can go into the tourney praying that the two will play each other for the tie-breaker. THAT would be sick.

 

It's crazy watching two teams go at it like they do, though...seeing one go to the post, and the other hang around the perimeter.

 

No mention of Marshall, huh? I'm getting interested in him...really, really wish there will be a way for him to fall to the 20's, but I doubt it. The dude has crazy court vision.

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No mention of Marshall, huh? I'm getting interested in him...really, really wish there will be a way for him to fall to the 20's, but I doubt it. The dude has crazy court vision.

 

Don't get me wrong, Marshall is arguably the most important player on the floor for the Heels, especially since Strickland got hurt and they've been forced to play him for basically the entire game as White isn't exactly up to the challenge of playing in games of this magnitude. He could easily have the biggest impact on the floor tomorrow, like he often does for Carolina.

 

I just wanted to stick with the UNC's interior play vs. Duke's outside barrage as the theme of this. If I really went into more detail, I definitely would've mentioned Marshall's ability to control tempo, the Plumlee's and Kelly down low for Duke, the importance of Bullock and Hairston being able to knock down shots, Thornton's defense and what not. I just didn't feel the need to go into excessive detail as I do believe that this game will inevitably come down to UNC's front court against Duke's back court, just like it did the last time they played.

 

 

I'm so pissed that I'm going to miss this game, though. I'll be able to catch the final 5 minutes or so when I'm on my lunch break, but other than that I won't be able to catch a minute of it, which really sucks.

 

I guess I can't complain too much, though. After all, I did manage to watch Indiana/Kentucky, Duke/UNC 1 and Kansas/Missouri a week ago. All three of those games were absolute gems, but it definitely will suck to miss this one, just like it sucked to miss the Kentucky/UNC game back in December.

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I got UNC in a slaughter.

 

This honestly wouldn't surprise me.

 

In the 1st meeting it easily could've been a Carolina blowout if they didn't implode down the stretch (and have a couple of calls against them, like that Curry three where he traveled, but those calls were not the reason for the collapse). Marshall committed turnovers that I've never seen him commit before, Barnes made that stupid play that resulted in a charge, Zeller choked at the free throw line and had that fluke deflection into his own basket.

 

If the Heels play like they do 90% of the time down the stretch of that game Duke doesn't have the chance fo make that comeback. It was the perfect storm of Carolina mistakes and Duke playing near perfect basketball sure.

 

Then again, Duke can also play much better than they did for the first 17 minutes of the 2nd half as well.

 

I honestly would not be surprised by any result tonight. Obviously, I'm pulling for a UNC win.

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So...

 

Barnes, Zeller, Henson combined for 48 points and 24 rebounds on 20/34 shooting.

 

Curry, Rivers, Dawkins combined for 27 points on 6/26 shooting and shot a combined 4/12 from 3.

 

 

Of course Marshall looks to have been the best player on the floor tonight, which I'm not surprised about, but the UNC bigs vs. the Duke guards certainly seemed to be the difference in this game.

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