Hoopsworld: Biggest Sleeper Team

[Built Ford Tough]

Alex Kennedy, Joel Brigham, BIll Ingram, Richard Hardy and Eric Pincus eached picked a team who they believe is the biggest sleeper in the league.

 

Kennedy picked Toronto

Brigham picked Milwaukee

Ingram picked Denver

Hardy picked Golden State

Pincus picked Washington

 

Read the reasoning behind each selection here:

 

http://www.hoopsworld.com/sunday-topic-biggest-sleeper-team/

 

Who do you think was correct with their pick of the biggest sleeper team? Or do you believe that the correct answer is a team that none of the Hoopsworld analysts selected? If so, which team do you believe is the biggest sleeper team?

[Nitro]

Don't feel like reading the description, but how is Denver a sleeper team? They pushed LA to 7 games last year and pretty much everyone agrees Iguodala was a very nice addition.

[Built Ford Tough]

Don't feel like reading the description, but how is Denver a sleeper team? They pushed LA to 7 games last year and pretty much everyone agrees Iguodala was a very nice addition.

 

His logic was basically that he doesn't think there won't be any surprise mystery team who comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs, so he felt like Denver was a sleeper team in terms of being a title contender. From my understanding, he seems to think that Denver is on the level of a LA, OKC and San Antonio as a true title contender, but not many people are giving them a chance of joining that level.

[Nitro]

His logic was basically that he doesn't think there won't be any surprise mystery team who comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs, so he felt like Denver was a sleeper team in terms of being a title contender. From my understanding, he seems to think that Denver is on the level of a LA, OKC and San Antonio as a true title contender, but not many people are giving them a chance of joining that level.

 

Gotcha. I think them being a title contender is a lot less likely than a team like Toronto making the playoffs, but at least it makes things more understandable.

[Real Deal]

I'll say the Warriors, but it all hinges on Curry and Bogut's health. If those two can put out for at least 70 games, Golden State could find their way into the postseason, with the talent they have right now.

 

Stephen Curry

David Lee

Andrew Bogut

Harrison Barnes

Klay Thompson

Brandon Rush

Carl Landry

Richard Jefferson

Jarrett Jack

 

Honestly, that's a lot of talent, and a lot of different options. You don't have anyone outstanding, but if Denver can get away with not having a superstar last season, and the Sixers and Pacers did the same, why not Golden State?

[DunkinDerozan]

Other than the Raptors I'd say Wizards. Assuming John Wall improves and Nene stays healthy they have a solid chance at grabbing a playoff spot.

[Nitro]

Honestly, that's a lot of talent, and a lot of different options. You don't have anyone outstanding, but if Denver can get away with not having a superstar last season, and the Sixers and Pacers did the same, why not Golden State?

 

Coaching, health and direction.

[Real Deal]

Coaching, health and direction.

I'm not going to say Mark Jackson is a better coach than Doug Collins (or will ever be better), but Vogel has only given us one full year of coaching (around 100 games total), and I believe Jackson could be decent, at least. I mean, we can also say that Mike Brown will be the death of the Lakers.

 

Health is obvious, which is why I pointed to Curry and Bogut. If I was taking bets, who gets injured first, and who misses the most games? It's sad to say that, but yeah...

 

The Pacers just seem like a similar team to me, and we saw what they did last year. Granted they only won 42 games, in a weak East, but it was enough to grab the third seed, and it's far better than the 25 or so wins the Warriors had (because of everything you stated above, lol).

 

I'm willing to give Mark Jackson this second year, and hopefully (well, I don't really give a damn), the team can play up to their potential, stay healthy, and sneak into that 8th seed, so the Lakers can sweep them in the first round.

[Nitro]

I'm not going to say Mark Jackson is a better coach than Doug Collins (or will ever be better), but Vogel has only given us one full year of coaching (around 100 games total), and I believe Jackson could be decent, at least. I mean, we can also say that Mike Brown will be the death of the Lakers.

 

Health is obvious, which is why I pointed to Curry and Bogut. If I was taking bets, who gets injured first, and who misses the most games? It's sad to say that, but yeah...

 

The Pacers just seem like a similar team to me, and we saw what they did last year. Granted they only won 42 games, in a weak East, but it was enough to grab the third seed, and it's far better than the 25 or so wins the Warriors had (because of everything you stated above, lol).

 

I'm willing to give Mark Jackson this second year, and hopefully (well, I don't really give a damn), the team can play up to their potential, stay healthy, and sneak into that 8th seed, so the Lakers can sweep them in the first round.

 

Besides health (the #1 key), my issue is with the direction of the team. How will they operate?

 

The Sixers last season were built on defense. They had arguably the best defenders in their league at 2 positions (Holliday and Iguodala), and top to bottom the team was defensively talented with a very good coach. Anytime you are as strong defensively as they were, to add to occasional explosive offense that their open court game enabled, then you are going to be a solid team. They benefited from playing in the East, and then playing a heartbroken Chicago team in the playoffs, but still they had a solid identity to play off of.

 

Indiana had one of the best big man combo's in the league, a SF a step below elite when he's on, and good depth with Collison, George, Hill, Barbosa and Hansbrough. Because of their big men they were top 5 in the league in rebounding, and their role players allowed them to be one of the best 3pt shooting teams as well.

 

Denver was as perfectly constructed for their uptempo, team-oriented identity as you could possibly get without having a star player. From the coaching to the talent, they just meshed very well.

 

This Golden State team...I don't know. Everyone besides Bogut is made to play at an uptempo, free-flowing style. If they want to take advantage of his abilities, they'll need to slow the game down. However, if they do, and I'm assuming Mark Jackson will, I don't know how far that will get them. Bogut is a very good player, but not a good #1 option, and the players around him aren't guys who can be key contributors on a team based on defense, rebounding and an offense based on strict execution. Now, if they up the tempo, then that will largely negate the abilities of Bogut, making him no more than a glorified role player. And the rest of the roster, while they have some talent, just isn't good enough to make them anymore than a fringe playoff team (IMO on the wrong side of the 8th seed).

 

I honestly have higher hopes for Milwaukee, at least as far as potential goes. I am not a Monta or Jennings fan, but they can be an explosive 1-2 punch on some nights, which is a bit more intriguing to me than what GS has going for them.

[Real Deal]

Besides health (the #1 key), my issue is with the direction of the team. How will they operate?

They have a variety of options, and I think that's what can make them tough to beat...not necessarily a dominant offensive team, but just a nuisance. You have a point guard that can distribute and shoot (which is ideal), and a two-guard that could be one of the best shooters in the league. Lee isn't your traditional post-up, back-to-the-basket forward, and he loves cutting...while Bogut is the complete opposite as a big man. Barnes can create his own shot or play off the dribble, but even more beneficial, he's a solid defensive player, and you get that out of both him and B-Rush...not to mention Rush has proven he can be a productive offensive player if he's given quality minutes as a third option (just sticking that out there).

 

A team with that much to defend, all 24 feet of the floor, any angle...it's going to be a tough match-up. Bogut doesn't necessarily have to run with these guys, just like Bynum won't need to run with Holiday, Turner and Co. in Philly. The difference is, though, Bogut isn't a guy that's going to drop 20 for you every night, and his presence will be felt more on the defensive end...and that's something the Warriors have been seeking for years.

 

Golden State has been in the top half of the league in offense every single season since 2006, but bottom half of the league (and mostly, bottom ten) on the defensive end since 1994 (1999 doesn't even count as a season, to me). I won't worry much about their offense.

[Nitro]

Golden State has been in the top half of the league in offense every single season since 2006, but bottom half of the league (and mostly, bottom ten) on the defensive end since 1994 (1999 doesn't even count as a season, to me). I won't worry much about their offense.

 

That 6 year streak was largely based off Nellie-ball. Last season they were 14th in offense, and dropped 5 spots in pace. Jackson wanted to slow down the game and become more defense and execution oriented. With Bogut they will definitely improve in some of those aspects, but with his supporting talent I don't see them becoming a top 10 defensive team, and offensively I don't see them being elite either in a slowed-down offense.

 

As for the Bynum thing, where he fits is that the team is based off defense and securing rebounds to ignite their fastbreak. H's got the supporting talent to accomplish this. The Warriors are a jumpshooting team which will negate some of Bogut's offensive rebounding ability, and they don't have the defenders around him to maximize what he can offer on defense.

[Real Deal]

As for the Bynum thing, where he fits is that the team is based off defense and securing rebounds to ignite their fastbreak. H's got the supporting talent to accomplish this.

Wait, are you saying the Sixers aren't going to slow down and play through Drew as their primary scoring option?

[Nitro]

Wait, are you saying the Sixers aren't going to slow down and play through Drew as their primary scoring option?

 

He will, but I was talking strictly about their open court game.

[Real Deal]

He will, but I was talking strictly about their open court game.

That makes sense. But, okay...you're telling me that Bynum will secure boards and play defense, and he has guys that will get out and run, and those boards will ignite the break.

 

Bogut is a good rebounder, can pull down double-digit boards every game, and he plays defense. The Warriors will run the break. I'm not really sure what the difference is, regarding this.

[Built Ford Tough]

Why will Golden State being a jump shooting team negate Bogut's offensive rebounding? Sure, he won't be able to get as many offensive boards right underneath the basket and immediately go up for a put back, but the long rebounds will create a lot of tap out opportunities, especially considering Bogut's length.

 

If anything, I think Golden State being a jump shooting team will make Bogut more dangerous on the offensive glass. While he may not get as many himself, teams are aware of his ability and will pay extra attention to boxing him out. This will enable more opportunities for Lee (who has been in the top 15 in the league in offensive boards each of the past 3 seasons) or the Warriors wing players (who are all solid rebounders with the exception of Thompson) to grab some of those long rebounds around the foul line area.

 

The spacing on the floor will also make excellent use of Bogut's passing ability and, as we all know, the best way to get open 3's is off of broken plays such as offensive rebounds.

 

In terms of raw numbers it may hurt him, but I think that the "productive" (can't think of a better word) number of offensive rebounds will increase in terms of them resulting in open looks for shooters.

 

 

Also, in regards to the offense thing, the numbers last season aren't exactly a great representation of the Warriors potential on that end. On the surface the 14th ranked offense isn't anything other than run of the mill, but look at the circumstances surrounding that team.

 

1. They traded their leading scorer in Monta Ellis after 37 games for Bogut, who didn't play a single second for them.

 

2. Curry missed 40 games and Lee missed 9, their two best offensive players after the Ellis trade.

 

3. They were blantantly tanking the 1.5 months of the season. I'm honestly not sure if this had a direct impact on the numbers in terms of what their ORTG was prior to entering tank mode in comparision to what it was afterwards, but I do know that they were throwing out some absolutely pathetic lineups that aren't even close to the talent level that they'll be trotting out there this season, even if Curry, Bogut or Lee get injured.

 

I'm not saying that they are going to be an elite offense or anything like that, but they do have the potential to be a very dangerous, albeit streaky, offensive team this season given their makeup and shooting ability.

 

 

One last thing I don't really understand. You mention Bynum pulling down boards and igniting the Sixers break but won't Bogut do the exact same thing? Sure, the Warriors aren't as good defensively and as a result there will probably be more defensive rebound opportunities for Bynum to ignite the Sixers break, but Bogut will be doing the exact same thing. At the core, I don't see what the difference is.

[Nitro]

Why will Golden State being a jump shooting team negate Bogut's offensive rebounding? Sure, he won't be able to get as many offensive boards right underneath the basket and immediately go up for a put back, but the long rebounds will create a lot of tap out opportunities, especially considering Bogut's length.

 

Long rebounds tend to hurt offensive rebounding for legit 7 footers with Bogut's physical attributes, especially quality ones around the rim which allow for tip-ins and quick putbacks. However, if you put Bogut on a team with a few great slashers, he'd kill it on the boards.

 

Also, in regards to the offense thing, the numbers last season aren't exactly a great representation of the Warriors potential on that end. On the surface the 14th ranked offense isn't anything other than run of the mill, but look at the circumstances surrounding that team.

 

1. They traded their leading scorer in Monta Ellis after 37 games for Bogut, who didn't play a single second for them.

 

2. Curry missed 40 games and Lee missed 9, their two best offensive players after the Ellis trade.

 

3. They were blantantly tanking the 1.5 months of the season. I'm honestly not sure if this had a direct impact on the numbers in terms of what their ORTG was prior to entering tank mode in comparision to what it was afterwards, but I do know that they were throwing out some absolutely pathetic lineups that aren't even close to the talent level that they'll be trotting out there this season, even if Curry, Bogut or Lee get injured.

 

I'm not saying that they are going to be an elite offense or anything like that, but they do have the potential to be a very dangerous, albeit streaky, offensive team this season given their makeup and shooting ability.

 

I was going more by their early season start when everyone, for the most part, was there and healthy. I remember their offense being significantly slowed down in Mark Jackson's system to begin the year, even with Monta and Curry.

 

 

One last thing I don't really understand. You mention Bynum pulling down boards and igniting the Sixers break but won't Bogut do the exact same thing? Sure, the Warriors aren't as good defensively and as a result there will probably be more defensive rebound opportunities for Bynum to ignite the Sixers break, but Bogut will be doing the exact same thing. At the core, I don't see what the difference is.

 

Bogut will definitely help in that regard, but without the defensive talent around him I don't see him being able to make the kind of impact Bynum will. My point was basically how well Bynum fits in with the Sixers as opposed to Bogut in GS. Bynum fits in well with their defensive philosophy, will help ignite fast breaks, and he fits in their methodical halfcourt sets as a viable first option. Bogut's defensive attributes will not be maximized, and I don't feel he is a good #1 option and I question how his style of play will fit in with the Warriors. Unlike Philly, GS's supporting talents will work best IMO in a free flowing offense ala Denver. However, I doubt Mark Jackson will implement that type of offense, and I don't think Bogut is good enough to be the offensive anchor for the team.

[Built Ford Tough]

Long rebounds tend to hurt offensive rebounding for legit 7 footers with Bogut's physical attributes, especially quality ones around the rim which allow for tip-ins and quick putbacks. However, if you put Bogut on a team with a few great slashers, he'd kill it on the boards.

 

Yeah, I mentioned that he won't get quality ones right under the basket.

 

However, it will open up chances for his teammates to sneak in and grab some of those, especially if they are worried about keeping Bogut off the glass. Then when they start being a bit more relaxed on Bogut because guys like Lee, Jefferson, Barnes and Rush are getting those boards 10 feet from the hoop, it could easily result in him getting some of his own. Maybe they won't be right underneath the hoop, but if he can tap the ball out to an open Curry, Thompson, Rush, Barnes or Jack, it is going to result in a lot of made 3's.

 

 

I was going more by their early season start when everyone, for the most part, was there and healthy. I remember their offense being significantly slowed down in Mark Jackson's system to begin the year, even with Monta and Curry.

 

Fair enough.

 

I do believe I read something about Jackson wanting to push the ball more than they did last year since they have so many shooters who will be able to spot up for that transition 3.

 

We won't see a rebirth of Nellie-ball or anything like that, but I highly doubt Jackson will slow things down to a crawl like he was trying to do last season.

 

I think it will be similar to what Dwane Casey is doing in Toronto. Last year he slowed the team down to a snails pace because he wanted to really drill into his team what he wants from them on the defensive end and change that culture. This year there has been a large emphasis placed on pushing the ball and looking to get into transition because he is comfortable with what he accomplished defensively last year. I think there is a very good chance we see something similar to that from Jackson this year.

 

 

Bogut will definitely help in that regard, but without the defensive talent around him I don't see him being able to make the kind of impact Bynum will. My point was basically how well Bynum fits in with the Sixers as opposed to Bogut in GS. Bynum fits in well with their defensive philosophy, will help ignite fast breaks, and he fits in their methodical halfcourt sets as a viable first option. Bogut's defensive attributes will not be maximized, and I don't feel he is a good #1 option and I question how his style of play will fit in with the Warriors. Unlike Philly, GS's supporting talents will work best IMO in a free flowing offense ala Denver. However, I doubt Mark Jackson will implement that type of offense, and I don't think Bogut is good enough to be the offensive anchor for the team.

 

I agree with most of this, but there are two things that I don't really agree with.

 

1. I think that Bogut's style will fit in really nicely with Golden State. Not as a number 1 scoring option because he isn't that. I think that GS won't really have a got to guy this season and instead will look to just ride the hot hand, whether that happens to be Bogut, Lee, Curry or Thompson on that particular night. What I like about the fit for Bogut is that having so many knock down shooters around him is going to make excellent use of his passing ability. He is by no means on Bynum's level as a scoring threat, but he has enough skill to be able to go against most centers one-on-one and put up points. Then when a second defender is sent, he will be able to pick apart defenses because of how much spacing there is on the floor. Pretty much every player in the Warriors rotation is going to be a legitimate threat from 18 feet, and a great passing big like Bogut is going to be an awesome magnet to get players good looks.

 

2. Don't you think that a similar thing could be said about Philly being better in a free flowing offense as opposed to a half court, structured one? Turner, Holiday, Young, Wright and Richardson are all better in a faster paced game. When they were at their best last season (at least whenever I watched them) they were constantly pushing the tempo and looking to run and make use of their athletic advantages over most teams. When the games slowed down to a half court pace, they really got stagnant and predictable. Now Bynum will give them a legitimate option to run their offense through when things do slow down, but I don't really agree that the rest of the offense fits around him all that much better than GS's offense fits around Bogut.

 

From my perspective, I think it is a pretty similar fit where you have two bigs who are better suited to playing a slowed down game, but they are surrounded by athletes (Philly) and shooters (GS) that would thrive in a less structed, more flowing offense.

[N.1.A.K.]

Warriors will be the surprise team of the year.

[Nitro]

2. Don't you think that a similar thing could be said about Philly being better in a free flowing offense as opposed to a half court, structured one? Turner, Holiday, Young, Wright and Richardson are all better in a faster paced game. When they were at their best last season (at least whenever I watched them) they were constantly pushing the tempo and looking to run and make use of their athletic advantages over most teams. When the games slowed down to a half court pace, they really got stagnant and predictable. Now Bynum will give them a legitimate option to run their offense through when things do slow down, but I don't really agree that the rest of the offense fits around him all that much better than GS's offense fits around Bogut.

 

I think Philly's defense, slashers and Bynum's ability as a #1 guy mesh well enough to be a slowed down, grind it out team when they aren't getting out on the break. Of course they aren't the Celtics when it comes to halfcourt execution, but I think the flow of the team, from offense to defense, works more when things are slowed down and organized. I don't know if the team is smart or explosive enough offensively to be very effective playing a Denver-style game.

 

With GS, I think everything about them besides Bogut is finesse. They are suited to be an offense that's free-flowing and quick with shooters, and a defense that takes chances to ignite open court offense. They have opportunities to be explosive on offense, but I think that will largely negate Bogut's abilities and what he can offer them offensively. Defensively, he is a very good shot-blocker, but I have doubts about how well he can make up for their other players' deficiencies. He is not a Ben Wallace, Kevin Garnett or Dwight Howard defensively, who have/had the agility to cover up mistakes all over the floor. Will he improve their defense? Certainly. But I still think they will be average at best. Same with the offense.

[Real Deal]

The worst part is, their two most important players (one on each end of the court, Curry and Bogut) are the two we expect to suffer a season-ending injury at one point or another.

 

I just really want them to stay healthy, despite being in the Pacific, because I'm interested in how they will do with everyone on deck. Instead of experimenting with 30 different lineups, maybe they can go much less, only having questions at the three (Rush, Barnes, Jefferson). I mean, they are basically locked in with Curry, Thompson, Lee and Bogut, and how long has it been since we've been able to say that about four of Golden State's starters?