2012-13 Offseason Discussion

[NomarFachix]

Was 5 years ago when he was 25, as opposed to 3 years ago for Shields when he was 28, wasn't as shields, career era is much better than Shields's, Verlander 4 seasons under 3.50 ERA vs Shields 1 season under 3.50 lol, apples and oranges

3 or 5 years ago, who cares when you can clearly see that the one season we're picking out is the anomaly. I am not comparing Shields to Verlander, I am pointing out that a bad year can happen to any pitcher and for various reasons, so citing the one bad year is fruitless.

 

And yes, one pitches against the AL East 60-80 games a year and one the AL Central 60-80 games a year. Seasons under 3.50 are going to vary due to that. I'd love to throw against the Royals/White Sox/Indians/Twins 80 games than the Yankees/Red Sox/Blue Jays/Orioles, wouldn't you? Gotta apply circumstance to those numbers, bud. Apples and Oranges.

 

His career ERA in the AL Beast is 3.99 I understand pitching there has it's toll but I really think people over rate it too...I believe there are 30-40 better pitchers in MLB than James Shields, and better one's coming, I don't think it's crazy at all to say he's just a good 2

That's your opinion. My opinion is that you're wrong. Shields is a #1 without question.

 

It shows that he's due for an injury to me, Wade Davis was big prospect I believe TB gave up on him to quickly, mostly because of the crowded rotation, I think he really has a chance to prove himself given the opportunity..

A prospect who didn't pan out, imagine that?

[NomarFachix]

Mostakas and Hosmer both very young Hosmer really struggled last year, neither are great yet, both can be obviously...Alcides known for his defense, good piece but, still, Francouer blows, Alex Gordon has stuggled in the majors more than he's had success still have huge holes and 2b and CF, still very young, I compare them to teams such as the Yankees and I just think the don't compare across to board, I guess they have a solid bullpen although I don't much about it..Too young, too many question marks..compare em to the tigers lol, still a couple more years for this team...imo

.293/.331/.390 isn't a bad slash for a defensive whiz in Escobar, and Gordon has been dynamite the past two seasons.. I don't know why you're digging deeper than recent success as though anything matters than what you're capable of now..

 

Moustakas and Hosmer are a year older, developed, and mature. I have no reason why they aren't ready to take the next step. Frenchy is decent with home run power and a great arm in right. Getz is fine at 2B and I would throw gorgeous Bourgeois out there and roll with it. Billy Butler smacks asses at DH and they're set.

 

Again, I don't see why they can't go after a wild card. Tigers/Yankees/Rangers and then 2 of a toss-up including Toronto/LAA/Oakland and whoever else shows up. Didn't think Oakland was going to be as good as they were this year, I think Kansas City improves in a big way.

[NomarFachix]

Surprisingly, Kauffman is usually in the top half of offense-friendly stadiums in the league, and the Trop is near the bottom. I'm sure a lot of this is how awful the Royals pitching has been. But yes, great point about Fenway and Yankee Stadium. I guess time will tell with this one.

It absolutely has to do with staffs. Are there advanced stats of any sort that remove pitching variables and address field performance stuff?

[Phightins]

It absolutely has to do with staffs. Are there advanced stats of any sort that remove pitching variables and address field performance stuff?

 

Yeah, I think park factor does. Or tries to, anyway. It compares a team's performance at home vs performance on the road. So I guess factoring in the road performance helps tell how the stadiums play. The exact science of it is too far over my head though

 

I love advanced stats but I honestly have no idea how 75% of the formulas work, lol.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Phightins

[NomarFachix]

Haha, same. Thanks for the healthy debate.

[fish7718]

3 or 5 years ago, who cares when you can clearly see that the one season we're picking out is the anomaly. I am not comparing Shields to Verlander, I am pointing out that a bad year can happen to any pitcher and for various reasons, so citing the one bad year is fruitless.

You missed my point, Shields bad season happened after a while he was in the majors, Verlanders was his third season, again I don't see the point in comparing these 2, it's just a bad comparison you are the one picked them.

 

And yes, one pitches against the AL East 60-80 games a year and one the AL Central 60-80 games a year. Seasons under 3.50 are going to vary due to that. I'd love to throw against the Royals/White Sox/Indians/Twins 80 games than the Yankees/Red Sox/Blue Jays/Orioles, wouldn't you? Gotta apply circumstance to those numbers, bud. Apples and Oranges.

Shields actually has a 3.99 ERA vs White Sox/Indians/Tigers/Twins #irony

 

again you are the one who is obsessed with comparing Verlander to Shields not me

 

That's your opinion. My opinion is that you're wrong. Shields is a #1 without question.

lol k

 

A prospect who didn't pan out, imagine that?

Isn't that what everyone was saying about Alex Gordon up until 2 years ago?

 

.293/.331/.390 isn't a bad slash for a defensive whiz in Escobar, and Gordon has been dynamite the past two seasons.. I don't know why you're digging deeper than recent success as though anything matters than what you're capable of now..

I like Alcides, Gordon dynamite? He had a great year 2 years ago, good year last year, lol @ the last comment I know I'm capable of anything at this point right? Because you are not the one who said "bad years happen" well fluke years happen too, career numbers help provide insight for that.

 

Moustakas and Hosmer are a year older, developed, and mature. I have no reason why they aren't ready to take the next step. Frenchy is decent with home run power and a great arm in right. Getz is fine at 2B and I would throw gorgeous Bourgeois out there and roll with it. Billy Butler smacks asses at DH and they're set.

I like Mike & Eric and I expect them to get better but again, not all prospects pan out right? Getz is eh he doesn't add anything, Billy Butler obviously a good DH

Again, I don't see why they can't go after a wild card. Tigers/Yankees/Rangers and then 2 of a toss-up including Toronto/LAA/Oakland and whoever else shows up. Didn't think Oakland was going to be as good as they were this year, I think Kansas City improves in a big way.

I think KC a tier below every team you just named

 

** haha misread that, you were talking about the players my b, actually made me laugh when I read it too I was like huh, is he serious?

Edited December 10, 2012 by fish7718

[NomarFachix]

Verlanders down year was sandwiched between 3.63 3.66 and 3.45 3.37, Shields between 3.85 3.56 4.14 and 2.82 3.52. Point is that it's an outlier season and shouldn't be central in your debate against a guy. I think Verlander was a perfect choice, same deal.. Bad year between multiple great years doesn't define you.

 

Your 2nd point, I'm comparing their bad year situation, not who is better or has lower ERA. You're misusing my comparison.

 

Yes people were saying that about Gordon, and if a team had traded Gordon as a prospect away for Greinke (best Shields comparitor) and he didn't hit those first bunch of years, it'd have proven my point that you trade unknowns for frontline starters 7 days a week.

 

Gordon is a great player at this time. Amazing defense, great hitter. Nothing matters but these past two years.

 

Getz doesn't add much but the average 2B doesn't usually anyway. Good D and contact and they're happy.

 

If you like them less than the teams I listed I get that and it's your opinion, but if corner infielders take next step they're right there. Rest of it is in place. Would like to see them sign a pen arm or two.

 

Sorry for organization and blabbering, on phone. Also lol at the bold, awesome stuff haha.. Silly internets and your confusing tones

[fish7718]

Welp, I think we've both said everything there is to be said. In closing I see Shields as a 31 year old 2, and if he is an ace, he is one of the worst ones. So to trade a top 5 prospect for him to me is silly. Especially if you're the Royals you've had 1 winning season in like the past 20 years and haven't made the playoffs since 1985. You finally have a bunch of young talent and a possibility at a bright future and you go and trade it for James Shields. Like I said I feel this is a move that bad teams make to keep them mediocre. I like the Royals so I hope I'm wrong but we'll see.

[Phightins]

We've all made our points, so I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but here is Rob Neyer's post about the trade:

 

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/12/10/3749556/kansas-city-royals-tampa-bay-rays-trade-james-shields-wil-myers-analysis

 

I pretty much agree word for word, and it also has the details on that factoid about the BA minor league player of the year winners that I mentioned earlier. That is one hell of a group.

[NomarFachix]

It's all good, here's one that reflects more of how I feel:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-gm-dayton-moore-right-move-james-shields-wade-davis-trade-tampa-bay-rays-wil-myers-120912

[fish7718]

Good to see MLB forum active...even if it's just for a day lol

[NomarFachix]

Source: #Yankees sign Youkilis, one year, $12M.

[Lkr]

Angels lost Greinke(and a top prospect in the trade to get him) and Haren. #[expletive]this

[Phightins]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Three-team trade, per source, will look like this: Choo, Jason Donald to #Reds, Gregorius to #Diamondbacks, Stubbs, AZ pitcher to #Indians.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Corbin, Skaggs and Bauer were among #Diamondbacks pitchers who were in play. #Indians would get one in this deal; Skaggs unlikely.

 

 

Damn, the Reds are going to be filthy next year. Seems like a steep price for the D-Backs to pay, though. Big fan of the trade for the other two teams.

[NomarFachix]

I wrote a quick article of my take on the Yankees offseason so far, if you guys could take a look and provide me with some CnC I'd appreciate it

 

http://rfrancisreview.blogspot.com/2012/12/yankees-2012-offseason-disappointment.html?m=1

[Phightins]

I wrote a quick article of my take on the Yankees offseason so far, if you guys could take a look and provide me with some CnC I'd appreciate it

 

http://rfrancisreview.blogspot.com/2012/12/yankees-2012-offseason-disappointment.html?m=1

 

Well done! And I agree.

[Phightins]

To add on to that...

 

I agree that the Yankees should be commended for their approach. When your roster is old, full of shitty contracts, and already in luxury tax territory, the solution is not to add more old players on shitty contracts. Just take some time to regroup and focus on player development (I'm pretty sure Youkilis didn't get a qualifying offer from the White Sox, so he doesn't cost a draft pick, but correct me if I am wrong). Short term, the team may suffer a bit (although that still looks like a very strong team to me). There is nobody worth overpaying this offseason, anyway. And I agree 100% about Russell Martin. He does not deserve a 2 year contract, especially since you have Romine and Sanchez on the way up.

[Check my Stats]

Sounds like the Jays might make a move for dickey too. Not huge into baseball but this seems like a really suspect move, especially if they move D'Arnaud, who my roommates insist is a stud/our best prospect.

[fish7718]

Sounds like the Jays might make a move for dickey too. Not huge into baseball but this seems like a really suspect move, especially if they move D'Arnaud, who my roommates insist is a stud/our best prospect.

I want Gose and D'Arnaud *looks at Phigtins* :glasses:

 

At the end of the day Dickey won the cy young last year putting up some amazing stats, pitched back to back 1 hitters one in tampa that could have been a perfect game, if Toronto is in win now mode, he's worth D'Arnaud

[Phightins]

Boo....it's gonna kill me to see Travis D in the NL East .

 

Hell of a deal for Alderson if it goes through. Beltran last year, now Dickey. Super impressive to get maximum return on aging players with questionable futures.

[Phightins]

Also, the Phillies signed Mike Adams (2 years, $12 million, vesting option for a 3rd year) and John Lannan (1 year $2 million) today. Fine with the Lannan move. He isn't very good, but there is almost no risk involved. I'd much rather fill out the rotation with him than with a 3 or 4 year deal for Edwin Jackson or Kyle Lohse.

 

Not a huge fan of the Adams deal. Nothing pisses me off more than giving multi-year deals to aging middle relievers (coming off surgery no less) showing clear signs of decline. I loved Adams in his Padres days, but he is a shell of his old self. Strikeout rate going steadily downhill for the past few seasons, and his surgery this offseason will most certainly not help that. Plus, with this huge stable of power relief arms in AAA, I'd wager that at least 2 of them pan out, perhaps more. Why throw this kind of money for veteran bullpen help when you still have other needs?

[Built Ford Tough]

Sounds like the Jays might make a move for dickey too. Not huge into baseball but this seems like a really suspect move, especially if they move D'Arnaud, who my roommates insist is a stud/our best prospect.

 

D'Arnaud is the best catching prospect in baseball and, I believe, ranked as the 10th or 11th best prospect overall.

 

 

As far as the rumors/speculation/whatever goes, I don't know what to think.

 

On one hand, I definitely believe that the teams have had serious discussions and probably aren't too far off in terms of a deal being completed. Toronto is well known to be after another pitcher and Dickey is clearly available for trade.

 

On the other hand, AA never has his trades leaked like this. All of his moves have been completely out of the blue with little to no speculation before hand. Nobody saw the Miami blockbuster coming, nobody talked about the deal for Rasmus until it happened and so on. The only trade that was known before hand was the Halladay trade, but that was obvious since Doc said he wanted to go to Philly.

 

So yeah, I don't know what to think. All of the leaked "information" is coming from New York, at least from what I've read.

 

The only thing I do know is that if D'Arnaud, one of Sanchez or Syndergaard and another spec are involved, Toronto better be getting a damn good player (prospect or otherwise) along with Dickey, although based on what I've read, if you can believe what has been leaked, that seems to be the case anyways. I'm sure Dickey signing an extension would be a part of the deal so I'm not worried about that.

[fish7718]

From what I've been told Toronto wants to trade Arenciba and Gose, Mets want D'Arnaud but Jays won't give up D'Aranaud unless they get Niese, Mets won't trade Dickey unless they get D'Arnaud...

[Built Ford Tough]

From what I've been told Toronto wants to trade Arenciba and Gose, Mets want D'Arnaud but Jays won't give up D'Aranaud unless they get Niese, Mets won't trade Dickey unless they get D'Arnaud...

 

From what I know from the Toronto side of things:

 

- The offer started as Arencibia and Gose.

- The Mets wanted D'Arnaud and Gose.

- Toronto would be willing to include D'Arnaud as long Dickey agrees to an extension as part of the deal.

- The package never included both TDA and Gose.

 

That is all I've heard. None of the Toronto guys are saying much, though. The only thing that they seem to know is that TDA is only getting dealt if Dickey signs an extension with the Jays and that the package does not include both TDA and Gose. I've also never hard any other NYM players brought up from Toronto guys.

 

Like I said before though, AA plays his cards really tight to the vest and barely anything gets leaked from the Jays' front office so I really haven't heard much.

[fish7718]

I'm hearing it's a done deal pending Dickey's extension

 

Dickey

Josh Thole

PTBNL

 

for

 

D'Arnoud

Noah Syndergaard

John Buck

PTBNL

 

If this is true, awesome