BFT's 2013 Mock Draft V1

[Built Ford Tough]

Like my early editions last year, I only have explainations for the lottery picks. The non-lottery picks are more of a BPA situation but I do account for team need for the first 5 or so non picks. After that is mostly BPA but a tiny bit of need factoring in as well. As the college season goes on and I see more of the non-marquee prospects, I'll do a more detailed job with the later picks but as of right now most of my prospect watching has been the lottery and mid first round guys.

 

Because of the nature of this draft, a lot of these mock picks are made with need in mind since there is such a cluster at the top of the board with very few real standouts. With need factoring in so much, I realize there are a few players likely sliding well below where they will actually go (Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams springs to mind as well as Michigan's Trey Burke).

 

I'll likely do my next one after the NCAA Tournament, another when the NBA's season is over and then another one after the lottery. I may or may not get around to doing one prior to the draft itself, I'm not sure yet.

 

The standings are accurate as of Friday night's games when I started writing this.

 

Without further ado, here is my first mock for the 2013 draft:

 

 

1. Charlotte Bobcats – SG Ben McLemore, Kansas, Freshman

After redshirting last year due to academic issues, McLemore has burst onto the national scene this year taking over for Thomas Robinson as the Jayhawks' go to guy offensively. McLemore possess a silky smooth jump shot that already features NBA range, a nice ability to utilizes off-ball screens and various cuts to create space to get his fantastic jumper off. Not just a shooter, McLemore has proven to be an elite athlete which enables him to get to the rim and finish over larger opponents. He uses this athleticism on the defensive end to surprise with weakside shot blocks and jumping passing lanes.

McLemore will need to develop more ball skills as at this point he is limited to one or two dribbles and either finishing in the paint or taking a pull up jumper. Developing a reliable go to move and counter move will make him that much more dangerous as an offensive option. With his elite jumper he doesn't need to have a great handle as defenders will instinctively play him tight so just tightening up his ball skills will make him a huge threat offensively.

Pairing McLemore with Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the perimeter gives the Bobcats a great mix of athleticism, shot creation, shooting and penetration. With Walker's ability to get into the heart of the defense, adding a shooter of McLemore's calibre gives him a reliable kick out option. McLemore's ball skills also enable the Bobcats to use Walker off the ball and relieve some of the creation responsibilities. On defense, McLemore and Kidd-Gilchrist will be able to cover a lot of ground with their length and athleticism, while also not sacrificing on-ball defense as both project to be plus individual defenders.

 

2. Washington Wizards – SG/SF Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA, Freshman

Muhammad is one of the best scorers in the entire country. He has shown a touch on his jumper that many people didn't know existed by converting just under 44% of his 3 point shots. After missing time early in the season due to an NCAA investigation into his eligibility, Muhammad's college career got off to a shaky start. After finally being ruled eligible, Muhammad started the year out of shape and his play suffered because of it. However, after dropping the excess weight and getting into game shape, Muhammad has shown the scoring ability that made him arguably the most coveted high school recruit last year. Over his last 12 contests, Muhammad is averaging 19.3 points per game and shooting nearly 48% from the field. Muhammad is also a solid rebounder and has the athleticism and length to develop into an above average defender as well.

 

There are concerns about his position as well. His game is more suited to the small forward spot as he doesn't have the handle of a shooting guard. The problem is he is only 6'6 and doesn't have a remarkable wingspan so he may be undersized playing at the small forward. The biggest weakness for Muhammad undoubtedly is creating offense for his teammates. On the season he has amassed a paltry 16 assists for an average of 0.9 a game. His assist to shot ratio is horrific, averaging 1 assist for every 15 shots he takes. This is the area where Muhammad needs the most work.

However, despite that, Muhammad wouldn't be expected to do much shot creating on this Wizards team. With John Wall being one of the best playmaking point guard in the NBA and rookie shooting guard Bradley Beal being a reliable 2nd ball handler, Muhammad can focus in on scoring the ball. Having a talented shot creator in Wall and a great floor spacer in Beal will give Muhammad plenty of room to get off his slashing and off ball game to create some easy opportunities for a team that really labours to get easy baskets.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers – C Alex Len, Maryland, Maryland, Sophomore

Len rocketed up the draft boards early in the season after an impressive display against future lottery pick Nerlens Noel in Maryland's first game of the season. Despite losing the game, Len showcased a much more developed skill set from his inconsistent freshman season and he has continued to display his improved skill set throughout the course of the season.. He has nice touch around the rim and if he can continue to add some go to moves in the post he could become a nice offensive option, especially when you consider his physical tools. Len is 7'1 and is already an impressive 255 pounds despite having much more room to fill out. Add to his impressive size his fluidity and athleticism, and you are looking at a very intriguing long term prospect both offensively and defensively.

Len is still perhaps the least NBA ready of all the top prospects/ He still battles bouts of inconsistency. Rather than try and impose his will on the game as the biggest and most skilled player on the floor most of the time, he tends to fade into the background. Part of this is due to Maryland's guards inability to consistently get him the ball in the post, but most of it is due to his mentality and motor.

Cleveland would look to pair Len's interior presence with budding superstar point guard Kyrie Irving's perimeter game. Cleveland has a lot of work to do but adding a potential franchise cornerstone at center to go along with the franchise point guard that Irving has proven to be makes them a team with a tremendous future. The two of them could develop into a formidable pick and roll duo and inside out threat. Add second year man Tristan Thompson, who is in the midst of a breakout season, and you have three very nice building blocks for the future that compliment each other very well.

4. New Orleans Hornets – C/PF Cody Zeller, Indiana, Sophomore

After a fantastic freshman season in which Zeller led the Indiana Hoosiers back into the national spotlight, Zeller decided to forgo the NBA draft and return to Bloomington to make a run at a National Championship. Zeller entered the season as the favourite for both National Player of the Year and for the first overall draft pick. However, he hasn't exactly had the season many expected and as a result has seen his stock drop a bit. There is still plenty of time for him to regain that mantle, though.

Zeller's game is still very much the same as it was last season when he was a projected lottery pick and that is both a good thing and a bad thing. It is good because his ability to run the floor, catch passes and finish around the basket is still second to none in college basketball. He is one of the most efficient big men in the game and these skills are very transferable to the next level. On the other hand, it is a bit worrisome because he hasn't taken his game to the next level like many people expected him to. He has become a better rebounder this year, which was one of the bigger question marks surrounding him last year.

For the Hornets, pairing Zeller alongside last year's first overall pick Anthony Davis gives the Hornets a nice mix of quickness, athleticism and touch around the basket. There are valid concerns about larger bigs feasting on these duo, but with the NBA going towards a faster, quicker league opposed to the physicality of yesteryear, it shouldn't be too much of a problem, especially when you factor in the length of Davis and how much ground he can cover defensively.

5. Orlando Magic – PF Nerlens Noel, Kentucky, Freshman

Noel is widely considered to be a top 3 prospect in this draft, but because of poor fit with the teams ahead of Orlando, the Magic find themselves with Noel falling right into their laps. Noel, while not as dominant defensively as his predecessor Anthony Davis, is a force in his own right. He has some of the quickest hands in all of college basketball and uses them to disrupt both bigs when catching entry passes as well as guard driving into the lane. When he isn't stripping opposing players of the ball, there is a good chance he is blocking their shots. Unlike a lot of young big men, Noel doesn't go for the highlight by swatting the ball into the fifth row. Instead, he does his best to try and deflect it towards a teammate to spark a transition opportunity.

On offense Noel isn't as productive. He has shown potential as a high post passer. When he has the ball at either elbow he does a nice job of finding cutters or making a bounce pass post entry but in order to be able to make optimal use of this skill, Noel needs to develop a reliable 15 foot jumper or a dribble drive face up game. If he doesn't do either of those things defenses will just sag off him and take away all passing lanes, effectively negating this promising skill. Outside of the high post passing, Noel is mainly a garbage man on offense, finishing broken plays, lobs or offensive rebounds. He has a lot of work to do on this end of the floor.

For Orlando, Noel would be able to come in and give them that defensive anchor they are missing since Dwight Howard's departure. The Magic have had a top 10 defense for 5 of the past 6 years prior to this season with Howard on the roster. In their first post-Howard era year, they've seen their defensive rating plummet to 24th in the league. Noel isn't going to replace Howard on his own, but his length, quickness, hands, shot blocking ability and defensive IQ is certainly a step in the right direction.

 

6. Phoenix Suns – PF Anthony Bennett, UNLV, Freshman

Bennett has arguably been the most productive freshman in the country so far and has quickly emerged as the leader of the Running Rebels, despite the presence of junior forward Mike Moser. Bennett has a versatile offensive game that features the ability to step outside and knock down perimeter jumpers, size his man up and take him from the triple threat position, work a two man game with a guard or post up in the paint. When it comes to scoring the ball in a variety of ways, Bennett may be the cream of the crop in this draft. In addition to his scoring ability, he is an explosive athlete, has exceptional length and has a relentless motor. All three of these attributes enable to be a force on the offensive glass and as a finisher in the paint, where he converts 76% of his attempts, which is top 10 in all of college basketball.

From a talent standpoint, Bennett is one of the biggest catches in the draft. There are two red flags about him that may cause him to fall. The first of which is his seemingly disinterest in playing on the defensive side of the ball. He will come up with a block or two simply due to his immense physical attributes, but when it comes to actually defending he is non-existent. He doesn't fight for position and is just lazy on that side of the ball. The other is concerns about his position. He is undersized for the power forward spot and doesn't project to be able to play the small forward spot either. With many tweener forward struggling to make an impact in the NBA, this may scare teams off of Bennett.

Despite these concerns, Phoenix is in such an unenviable position of having lack of talent at nearly every position, look for them to take a chance on a player who has the upside that Bennett does. Simply put, they need an infusion of talent on their roster and Bennett is one of the most talented players in the entire draft.

7. Sacramento Kings – SF Otto Porter, Georgetown, Sophomore

After being a relatively unknown recruit, Porter had a nice freshman season in a complimentary role for the Hoyas last year. With Henry Sims graduating, Porter has become the man for Georgetown and has adjusted well to the increased role and responsibility offensively while not sacrificing on the defensive end, where he made his biggest impact as a freshman. He increased his scoring average from 10 as a freshman to 15 this year while maintaining solid efficiency by converting 50% of his field goals. He is one of the best players in the country at finding open space. In particular, he does an excellent job of flashing to the high post for either an open jumper or to create a passing lane to feed the low post. Regardless of his improvements offensively, his calling card as a player and prospect is his defensive ability. He has nice size at 6'8 and an impressive 7'1 wingspan that enables him to do a fantastic of of helping on penetration, yet still recover in time to contest kick out jumpers. He plays passing lanes really well and does a nice job coming from the weakside to block shots, deflect passes or draw charges.

The biggest question mark with Porter is his ability to shoot from NBA 3 point range. He shot just 20% and made a total of 12 threes his entire freshman season. He has greatly improved on that this year, converting a higher percentage (44%) on a greater volume (20 made threes already). His jumper is unorthodox and will need re-tooling so even with his improved shooting, there are still valid concerns if it will translate to the next level. Another critique is he is rather limited off the bounce. Most of his dribble drives result in pull ups from mid range and he is rather predictable as he tends to always try straight-line right handed drives.

For a team with as many alpha male personalities and ball dominant offensive players as the Kings, Porter will slide in nicely as a complimentary role player who does his best work on the defensive end and off the ball. His ability to find open space to get his game off will compliment the ball dominant offensive players nicely, especially with his ability to play off of big men. If he is unable to translate his improved distance shooting this year, it may make the spacing rather difficult for the Kings, but that is really the only concern. Otherwise, it is a fantastic fit for both Porter and the Kings.

 

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (From Toronto) – C Isiah Austin, Baylor, Freshman

Austin has a unique blend of size and skill. Standing over 7 feet tall with long arms and solid athleticism, he also has good ball skills and range out to 18 feet. He moves very well beating most big men down the floor and is usually quicker off his feet as well. Despite his rail thin frame, he does a good job finishing around the basket because of his agility and soft touch enabling him to out manuever bigger and stronger players. Defensively he uses his length and quickness to really bother opposing players and also has a solid understanding of positional and help defense.

The major thing that Austin needs to work on is his body. He needs to add a good 30 pounds just to get to a passable weight at the NBA level. He is easily pushed around, really struggles to establish position both offensively and defensively. He manages to do a good job on the glass at the collegiate level due to being longer and more athletic than most of the opposition, but in the NBA he'll need to do a better job of boxing out and using his body as opposed to just leaping for the ball.

The Thunder are in a unique position where they are a legitimate title contender, but because of the James Harden trade, also possess a lottery pick from the Toronto Raptors. With their status as an elite team already established, they can look to go one of two ways with this pick. Either find a role player to fill a niche, or swing for the fences with a high upside project player. Austin fits the latter of those scenarios, but the potential he has is going to be too much for a gambler like Thunder GM Sam Presti to pass up.

 

9. Detroit Pistons – SG Archie Goodwin, Kentucky, Freshman

Goodwin is perhaps the most explosive player off the bounce in the draft. There are very few college players who are able to contain Goodwin when he puts his head down and attacks the paint. He has an elite first step, has a tight handle and elevates quickly making it difficult to block his shot. He has nice size to compliment his explosive athleticism. His constant attacking puts the defense on their heels and, while not being a gifted playmaker, does create opportunities for his teammates. He also uses his great physical attributes on the defensive end by being a huge pest whenever his man is dribbling the ball. He plays really aggressive pressure defense and also does a nice job jumping passing lanes for steals.

Goodwin is still very raw and has a lot of work to do. He needs to improve his jumper as it is not reliable at this point in his development. His decision making leaves a lot to be desired as he will have plenty of moments where he forces a drive into traffic or a pass that has no chance to be completed. His aggressiveness is a great trait, but he needs to learn to temper it as he can't play full tilt all the time. Learning when to pick his spots will greatly increase his effectiveness and efficiency as a player.

Adding Goodwin's penetration to a lineup that has some solid perimeter shooters in Brandon Knight, Tayshaun Prince and Kyle Singler, among others, will give the Pistons an added dimension to their offensive game that can become fairly predictable at times. The Pistons are either feeding Greg Monroe in the post or taking perimeter jumpers. Goodwin will give them a much needed third dimension on offense.

 

10. Minnesota Timberwolves – SG CJ McCollum, Senior, Lehigh

McCollum quietly put together a great first three seasons at Lehigh being one of the best non power conference players in the country, but he didn't really gain national prominence until he orchestrated the remarkable upset of second seeded Duke last season. McCollum has always been able to score the ball, but the stigma of playing for a small school against weaker competition hampered his draft stock, but that remarkable game against Duke eliminated many of those concerns. McCollum was off to a fantastic start to his senior year this year averaging a very impressive 24 points per game and shooting over 50% from three. His final year came to an abrupt halt when he broke his foot, but that hasn't done much to diminish his stock as a crafty, shot creating, scoring combo guard.

Like most combo guards and seniors, McCollum has the usual concerns. He is stuck between the two guard spots, his upside as a senior is limited, he doesn't defend well and so on and so forth. There are some valid concerns about his athleticism translating to the next level. He doesn't have great explosion or leaping ability, but he does tend to make up for that with a nice array of dribble moves and counters to create separation. Despite his scoring prowess, McCollum does need to improve his shot creation for his teammates to avoid becoming a one dimensional offensive player.

For the next few years at least, Minnesota is pretty set at the point guard with Ricky Rubio, small forward with Andrei Kirilenko, power forward with Kevin Love and center with Nikola Pekovic. The one missing ingredient, and one that has been there for a while now, is at the shooting guard spot. McCollum may not be a perfect fit as he is a bit of a combo guard due to his size, but he will give them the scoring and shooting ability to compliment their two franchise cornerstones; Rubio and Love.

11. Philadelphia 76ers – PF/C Rudy Gobert, France, 20 Years Old

Huge. In a word, that accurately describes this young man from France. Gobert is 7'1 and possess a mammoth 7'9 wingspan. Gobert uses this freakish size to be a huge presence on the defensive end blocking and altering shots. Gobert plays just 20 minutes a game, but manages to average two blocks a contest and alter numerous others during the course of the game. In addition to his shot blocking, Gobert makes excellent use of his gigantic arms to pull down nearly 10 boards on a per 40 minute basis , regardless of the fact that he is usually giving up a lot of strength against the opposition. As if size alone wasn't impressive enough, Gobert combines that with an excellent leaping ability and a very quick second jump to make him even more of an intimidating interior presence.

The biggest area that Gobert needs to work on is adding muscle to his huge frame. Despite being so large, Gobert weighs just 220 pounds and does get pushed around by stronger bigs inside. He will use his length to keep them at a distance, but if they are able to get inside on him, it usually results in them overpowering him en route to a basket or trip to the line. In addition to his lack of strength, Gobert needs to develop some role offensively. At this point in his development, he is basically a lob finisher and offensive rebounder. Even adding a simple jump hook with both hands will make him a much more effective player simply due to the fact that nobody will be able to really bother him due to his physical traits.

The Sixers are in a rather difficult situation if they end up in this area of the draft as ideally they would look to find Jrue Holiday a running mate in the backcourt to take over for the aging Jason Richardson, but there really aren't any shooting guards who make a lot of sense at this point in the draft. Gobert gives them a high upside insurance policy in case they lose Andrew Bynum in free agency or if his extensive injury history prevents him from being able to consistently get on the court. The problem is that if Bynum does manage to play, him and Gobert don't really fit next to each other very well. At the end of the day, with no real logical choice here, Philadelphia swings for the fences with a high upside big.

12. Phoenix Suns (From LA Lakers) – SF/PF Alex Poythress, Kentucky, Freshman

14 years ago the Phoenix Suns drafted a super athletic tweener forward out of UNLV by the name of Shawn Marion. Marion would go on to be a cornerstone of the Suns' franchise for nearly a decade because of his hustle, motor and stat-stuffing ability. Poythress is cut from the same cloth as Marion. He is also a high athletic forward with a great motor who can crash the glass, run the lanes in transition, finish around the rim and has the athleticism and length to become a great defender at both forward positions.

Much like Marion coming out of college, Poythress has a lot of the same weaknesses. He isn't very comfortable creating his own shot. His shooting is a concern, although he is much better as a stand still shooter than off the bounce. There are some concerns about where he fits in offensively as he doesn't really have the ball skills of a small forward or the interior play of a power forward. This can be corrected so long as he continues to improve his jump shot. As he gains more experience playing on the wing – he was a power forward for most his high school career – these weaknesses should naturally improve to the point where he can reliably play the small forward, much like Marion did in the early stages of his career.

The Suns used their early lottery pick to draft Bennett and by picking up Poythress they commit to a high athletic, versatile forward rotation that enables them to get out and run like they want to, but also enables them to have more options in the half court as well.

 

13. Dallas Mavericks – PG Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State, Freshman

Smart has a powerful frame standing at 6'4 that he uses to its full potential. He isn't the most explosive or quickest athlete, but where Smart excels is getting into the body of his defender and utilizing his strength to create separation to get his game off. He plays with a ferocious intensity that endears himself to fans – and makes him public enemy number one with opposing fans – and combines that with a motor that is going non-stop. He brings a nice versatility to the floor as he rebounds very well from the backcourt, does a nice job finding his teammates and will also surprise opponents with blocks and steals.

Where Smart needs work is on his shot selection. His shooting percentages are low, but that is more due to the shots he decides to take than a fundamental flaw in his shooting ability. He gets nice lift on his jumper and releases the ball with solid arc and rotation, but because he has a tendency to take difficult pull up jumpers, his percentages suffer. He will also need to tighten up his handle as he can be careless with the dribble and can get his pocket picked easier than you'd like from a lead guard as a result. Developing a floater will help nullify his lack of explosiveness that can hamper his finishing ability around the rim.

Smart and Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams will likely jockey for the honour of being the first point guard selected in the draft, although Michigan's Trey Burke is knocking on the door. For a team searching for help at the lead guard, all three are valid options for the Mavericks here, but Dallas' owner Mark Cuban will be drawn to the leadership and competitive fire that Texas native Smart possess, which will ultimately give Smart the edge.

14. Charlotte Bobcats (From Portland) – PF Mason Plumlee, Duke, Senior

With the departure of Austin Rivers and older brother Miles, Plumlee was expected to be the Blue Devils' featured player this year, and he has risen to the occasion by developing into one of the most productive players in college basketball and one of the leading candidates for National Player of the Year. Always a good athlete, an underdeveloped skillset has always held Plumlee back as a prospect but he has taken strides to improve that this year. He is more comfortable facing his man up and taking him off the dribble, using an excellent first step to get around his man and then elevating quickly to finish at the rim. He sets strong picks and does a nice job creating space when rolling to the paint. He is also a fantastic rebounder pulling down 11 boards a game.

Where Plumlee needs to improve most is his jumper. If he wants to be a face up threat in the NBA, he needs to develop a reliable 15 foot jumper or else defenses will just play him for the drive all the time. He has improved his post play, but still needs to continue to refine his post moves and work on his touch on his jump hooks. Just continuing to work on his overall skillset is needed for Plumlee as, despite the improvements he has made, he still relies a lot on his raw strength and athleticism to create on offense and defend on the other end.

Charlotte will look to come away from this draft with a backcourt partner for Walker and to improve on their abysmal frontcourt. Taking McLemore with the first pick solidifies their perimeter of the future. While not the sexy pick of a promising freshman, Plumlee will give the Bobcats a high energy, reliable big to give them some sorely needed production in the paint on both ends of the floor.

 

15. Boston Celtics – C Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, Freshman

 

16. Atlanta Hawks (From Houston) – PF Tony Mitchell, North Texas, Sophomore

 

17. Utah Jazz – PG Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse, Sophomore

 

18. Milwaukee Bucks – PG Trey Burke, Michigan, Sophomore

 

19. Atlanta Hawks -  SG Victor Oladipo, Indiana, Junior

 

20. Brooklyn Nets – PF James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina, Sophomore

 

21. Indiana Pacers – SF/PF Dario Saric, Croatia, 18 Years Old

 

22. Denver Nuggets -  SG Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State, Junior

 

23. Chicago Bulls – PF/C – Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga, Junior

 

24. Utah Jazz (From Golden State) – SG Tim Hardaway Jr., Junior

 

25. New York Knicks – C Jeff Withey, Kansas, Senior

 

26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis) – SF LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State, Sophomore

 

27. Cleveland Cavaliers (From Miami) – SF Glenn Robinson III, Michigan, Freshman

 

28. Los Angeles Clippers – C Gorgui Dieng, Louisville, Junior

 

29. San Antonio Spurs – PG Lorenzo Brown, NC State, Junior

 

30. Oklahoma City Thunder SF/PF CJ Leslie, NC State, Junior

[Real Deal]

How can you NOT stick Cody Zeller at #2?  You know you want to do it, lol.

 

Is there any doubt that New Orleans selects Shabazz or McLemore if either of them fall?  It's hard for me to say they'll take Zeller when they have Ryan Anderson locked up for 3-4 seasons, and Davis as their franchise player.  If it was the middle of the round, maybe, but that top five could turn into another productive player in their starting five, for all they know.

 

Sad thing about this upcoming draft is that there aren't many exciting point guards worthy of a lottery pick.  Burke could sneak in, as long as Michigan keeps playing so well and ends up in the Final Four...but other than him and Marcus Smart (who I think will be more of a two-guard), it's tough to see any of the PG's hitting their own ceilings.

[Paul]

Where is KCP?

[Real Deal]

Where is KCP?

I'd stick him in late first...didn't notice he was off the list. Dude can have games where he just catches fire, and even though he's a bit too inconsistent and a chucker sometimes, he still has first round talent.

 

It wouldn't shock me if the Wolves or Jazz picked him up.

[Built Ford Tough]

How can you NOT stick Cody Zeller at #2?  You know you want to do it, lol.

 

Is there any doubt that New Orleans selects Shabazz or McLemore if either of them fall?  It's hard for me to say they'll take Zeller when they have Ryan Anderson locked up for 3-4 seasons, and Davis as their franchise player.  If it was the middle of the round, maybe, but that top five could turn into another productive player in their starting five, for all they know.

 

Sad thing about this upcoming draft is that there aren't many exciting point guards worthy of a lottery pick.  Burke could sneak in, as long as Michigan keeps playing so well and ends up in the Final Four...but other than him and Marcus Smart (who I think will be more of a two-guard), it's tough to see any of the PG's hitting their own ceilings.

 

I had a hard enough time sticking Zeller at 4. I'm not a fan of his NBA potential at all. A huge red flag for me is when a player's wingspan is shorter than his height. Then on top of that factoring in that the player plays below the rim and doesn't wow you athletically, and, well, Zeller is my pick as the most likely bust at the top of the draft. If this was strictly what I would do and not a combination of what I would do and what I think teams will do, Zeller would probably be 10th or so.  

 

I think he'll have a career as a backup big like Tyler, but I don't see much better than that for his future. I'm just holding out hope that maybe Davis' length and the ground he is able to cover defensively will help negate the weaknesses in Cody's game.

 

 

Problem with your 2nd point about New Orleans is that if they don't go with Zeller (Noel and Davis are just too reptitive as far as I'm concerned or else he would've been an obvious selection for them) where are they going to find this permanent fixture in their starting lineup? They've got Davis at the 4 and Gordon at the 2 (sure he may not be happy there, but he is signed to a long term deal).

 

That leaves holes at the 1, 3 and 5. The best SF in this draft - assuming Muhammad is considered a 2 - is Porter or Poythress. I actually like both of them (Poythress being the riskier of the two, obviously) but are either one of them really worth a top 4 pick, even in a draft like this? Eh, I'm not sure.

 

You touched on the point guard issue of your own. You have 3 who'll go in the first round in Carter-Williams, Smart and Burke. 2 of those (MCW and Smart) have questions about whether they truly are a point guard and Burke has concerns of his own. They all fall in that late lottery/mid-first area and would be a huge reach at 4 and I'm a big fan of both Smart and Burke.

 

Now the 5. Len would be a great fit, but obviously he goes to the Cavs in this mock. That leaves Austin, Noel and Zeller. Austin and Noel are terrible fits next to Davis, making Cody the winner by default.

 

At least that is how I broke it down when making the mock.

 

 

Where is KCP?

 

 

In the 2014 mock draft, along with Steven Adams. I think KCP stays for his junior year to tighten up his ball skills, become a more consistent shooter and improve his decision making.

 

If I did include him, he would likely be somewhere in the 20-26 range, with 26 to Minnesota being his absolute floor. He probably replaces Olynyk as the Bulls pick at 23.

[JYD]

What do people think of Richard Howell from NC State? 6'8" 260 LBS. Athletic, not a stitch of fat on this guy's body. http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Richard_Howell/Summary/3790

 

At times I think he could be a better NBA player (maybe not better, but more valuable) than even his teammate CJ Leslie (who seems to get all the media hype).

 

Howell is averaging 13 pts, 11 rbs, 57% FG

 

Each year he's gotten significantly better, he's a relentless rebounder that dominated Mason Plumlee in their game against Duke, and McAdoo did virtually nothing in the game against UNC.

[Built Ford Tough]

What do people think of Richard Howell from NC State? 6'8" 260 LBS. Athletic, not a stitch of fat on this guy's body. http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Richard_Howell/Summary/3790

 

At times I think he could be a better NBA player (maybe not better, but more valuable) than even his teammate CJ Leslie (who seems to get all the media hype).

 

Howell is averaging 13 pts, 11 rbs, 57% FG

 

Each year he's gotten significantly better, he's a relentless rebounder that dominated Mason Plumlee in their game against Duke, and McAdoo did virtually nothing in the game against UNC.

 

I think he goes in the 2nd round. Great rebounder, solid defender and athletic, like you said, but from what I've seen, he is still really mechanical on offense and I don't see much from him on that side of the ball. I think a lot of his production is simply because he is so much stronger and athletic than most other bigs in the ACC and that isn't going to be the case in the NBA.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong on that because I watched a lot more State games last year. I've seen some this year, but only about 5 or so and 3 of those were early in the season.

 

I definitely think he gets drafted because of his rebounding ability, which is elite and we've seen players get drafted in the 2nd round and stick because of that trait. I don't think he cracks the 1st round, though.

 

For what it is worth, I don't necessarily disagree with you about your comment about Leslie, either. I think Leslie is a fringe 1st rounder and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Howell has a better NBA career than Leslie does.

[JYD]

I think he goes in the 2nd round. Great rebounder, solid defender and athletic, like you said, but from what I've seen, he is still really mechanical on offense and I don't see much from him on that side of the ball. I think a lot of his production is simply because he is so much stronger and athletic than most other bigs in the ACC and that isn't going to be the case in the NBA.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong on that because I watched a lot more State games last year. I've seen some this year, but only about 5 or so and 3 of those were early in the season.

 

I definitely think he gets drafted because of his rebounding ability, which is elite and we've seen players get drafted in the 2nd round and stick because of that trait. I don't think he cracks the 1st round, though.

 

For what it is worth, I don't necessarily disagree with you about your comment about Leslie, either. I think Leslie is a fringe 1st rounder and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Howell has a better NBA career than Leslie does.

No, your analysis of Howell is fair. His offensive game is far from spectacular. With his athleticism/build, if he was great offensively, he'd be averaging 20 ppg easily. He also plays about 35-38 mins every single game.

 

I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see him slip into late first round though.

 

That's cool your a Zaga fan by the way ... my Uncle actually works at the school.

[Built Ford Tough]

No, your analysis of Howell is fair. His offensive game is far from spectacular. With his athleticism/build, if he was great offensively, he'd be averaging 20 ppg easily. He also plays about 35-38 mins every single game.

 

I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see him slip into late first round though.

 

That's cool your a Zaga fan by the way ... my Uncle actually works at the school.

 

I think a fair comparision for Howell's draft stock would be Quincy Acy last year. Both seniors, both highly athletic, both very good rebounders and both considered good defenders. Howell is bigger than Acy, but I think scouts saw more offensive potential with Acy. Acy was considered a 2nd round pick all year long and ended up going with the 7th pick in the 2nd round.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see Howell slip into the late 1st round if some team is looking for somebody to help out on the glass, but I find that players like Howell ususally end up finding themselves being drafted in that 31-38 range.

 

Again, though, for what it is worth, these players usually end up having better careers than many of those taken in the 25-30 range.

 

 

As for the Zaga thing, I live not too far from Spokane (about 8 hour drive or so, although obviously, I'm still in Canada) and attended a basketball camp run by some Zaga personnel when I was younger. I'm still a big UNC fan (you probably just revoked any props you had for me after reading that, lol) but I've always had a soft spot for the Zags. I really, really like this team in particular. So much fun to watch.

[JYD]

I think a fair comparision for Howell's draft stock would be Quincy Acy last year. Both seniors, both highly athletic, both very good rebounders and both considered good defenders. Howell is bigger than Acy, but I think scouts saw more offensive potential with Acy. Acy was considered a 2nd round pick all year long and ended up going with the 7th pick in the 2nd round.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see Howell slip into the late 1st round if some team is looking for somebody to help out on the glass, but I find that players like Howell ususally end up finding themselves being drafted in that 31-38 range.

 

Again, though, for what it is worth, these players usually end up having better careers than many of those taken in the 25-30 range.

 

 

As for the Zaga thing, I live not too far from Spokane (about 8 hour drive or so, although obviously, I'm still in Canada) and attended a basketball camp run by some Zaga personnel when I was younger. I'm still a big UNC fan (you probably just revoked any props you had for me after reading that, lol) but I've always had a soft spot for the Zags. I really, really like this team in particular. So much fun to watch.

Yeah, I gotcha.

 

That Zaga team is definitely fun to watch. I don't discredit you for being a UNC fan. It's cool. Chapel Hill is nice. Durham and Duke is worse. :dribble:

Edited February 3, 2013 by JYD

[Cavamatic]

id be mad if we passed up Cody Zeller

[Need4Sheed]

lol at 6ers pick

[Built Ford Tough]

lol at 6ers pick

 

Lol at you posting this a month later.

 

Obviously things would be very different if I were to have written this yesterday, as opposed to over a month ago.