Championship Aspirations: An Orlando Magic Season Preview

[AtTheDriveIn]

There’s not long to go until Orlando’s season kicks off against the Philadelphia 76ers at Amway Arena. Coming off a heartbreaking Finals series in which Orlando was thoroughly beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers, 4-1, the Magic are looking to come back with a vengeance.

 

The Magic have brought in a major household name and a frequent invitee to the All-Star game, Vince Carter as well as adding a plethora of new players who fit surprisingly well within the team. So without further ado, the season preview...

 

Players Out

 

Rafer Alston, Fresno (To New Jersey)

Tony Battie, Texas Tech (To New Jersey)

Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky (To New Jersey)

Tyronn Lue, Nebraska (To Free Agency)

Hidayet Turkoglu, Turkey (To Toronto)

 

Players In

 

Ryan Anderson, California (From New Jersey)

Matt Barnes, UCLA (From Phoenix)

Brandon Bass, LSU (From Dallas)

Vince Carter, North Carolina (From New Jersey)

Jason Williams, Florida (From Retirement)

 

Projected Roster

 

G: Jameer Nelson | Anthony Johnson | Jason Williams

G: Vince Carter | Mickael Pietrus | JJ Reddick

F: Rashard Lewis | Matt Barnes

F: Brandon Bass | Ryan Anderson

C: Dwight Howard | Marcin Gortat | Adonal Foyle

 

Average Age: 28.0

Average Height: 6’6”

Average Weight: 223

 

Comments on Outgoing Players

 

The biggest loss that the Magic will experience this season will be the playmaking and leadership qualities that Hedo Turkoglu brought to the Magic. His was always sure to bring his game during crunch-time and had some amazing performances last season. His play making skill when Nelson was injured was superb, especially considering his height and position.

 

His flare and flash as well as the advantage having Turkoglu and Lewis at the forward positions will definitely be missed, however, definitely replaceable.

 

The other major losses that the Magic experienced through this offseason were that off their starting guard when Jameer Nelson went down to injury, Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee. Rafer came via a three-way trade with the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies which sent Brian Cook to the Rockets and Adonal Foyle to the Grizzlies (Foyle was later waived by the Grizzlies and re-signed to the Magic).

 

Alson, 32, did a remarkable job of filling Nelson’s void. His stability from the point guard position along with his (somewhat unusual) willingness to pass the ball often and frequently were major factors in getting the Magic to the Finals last season. Lee, on the other hand, was in his rookie season with the Magic.

 

Although, like most rookies, he began the season at a slow pace, easing into a definitive role within the team, Lee picked up steam and by the Finals series, was a starter for the Magic at the wing position. Lee showed much potential as a defensive pest on the perimeter as well as a solid midrange and three-point shooter.

 

The other players lost during this offseason were Tony Battie and Tyronn Lue. Neither player had a major impact on the team’s success for the season.

 

Comments on Incoming Players

 

The Magic scored big during the free agency period and were able to attract a lot of excellent role players to the team for the upcoming season. We begin, first and foremost, with North Carolina great, Vine Carter. Carter, 32, recently played for the New Jersey Nets and averaging 20.8 points per contest last season.

 

Although he is no longer Vince Carter of 27 years of age; he brings many attributes to the Magic, them being; a wealth of regular season experience, a strong frame, a solid work ethic and a will to win. How Vince Carter performs will have a direct correlation on the success of the team overall.

 

In the trade that sent Carter to Orlando, another player was shipped out with him; that player being Ryan Anderson. Ryan Anderson is a skilled 6’10” shooting big man. He fits in almost perfectly with the offensively perimeter oriented Orlando Magic team. His shooting ability brings an ability to stretch the floor offensively to the three point line, where he shot .365% from last season.

 

Anderson, 21, is still young and has some areas of his game to refine before he becomes a major contributor. However, the potential to be a great player is definitely there.

 

Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes are the other two players who will be joining the Magic organization this season. Both Bass and Barnes played important roles on their respective teams last season; Bass as a backup big for the Mavericks who provided energy, hustle and scoring off the bench and Barnes as a defender/three-point shooter.

 

Both players will again have meaningful and impactful roles for the Magic, as both are projected to be within the main rotation. The acquisition of Bass was, in my opinion, important as it gave the Magic something they have been dearly needing; another player who is willing to get his hands dirty.

 

This means that the pressure is no longer just on Howard to fight for all the rebounds or get all the blocks. It also gives them another scoring option inside, taking some pressure off the shooters.

 

Barnes was brought in as a defender and three point shooter. He will play a role similar to Pietrus and will probably compete for minutes with Pietrus. Barnes also brings leadership and an intensive will to win.

 

He is, in my opinion, an ideal player off the bench considering the strengths he brings to the team.

 

Jason Williams was also added to the Magic roster. He will not play a significant role.

 

Positional Breakdown

 

Playmakers

 

Anthony Johnson

Jameer Nelson

Jason Williams

 

Jameer Nelson will be the point guard starter. What Nelson brings to this Magic team is incredible efficiency scoring the basketball, as he showed last season, shooting over 50% on field goals and over 45 percent on three pointers. He also packs a very tough player into a relatively small frame and isn’t of any kind of contact.

 

He’s also slowly learning to pass the ball at a rate that would suit most coaches, and his intelligence is also becoming increasingly better. His defense is above average; however his short stature for an NBA player leads to him being overpowered by the 6’3"+ point guards but it has not become a major problem for the Magic.

 

Anthony Johnson will be the main back-up point guard. Johnson brings his veteran know-how and intelligence to the court every night. Although he is not an amazingly gifted player in any major area, his leadership had shown to be a huge factor off the bench for them last season.

 

He will, once again, have an opportunity to show that he can assert himself effectively into games without it reflecting on the stat-sheets.

 

Jason Williams is the third point guard, but will not receive major playing time.

 

Wings

 

Matt Barnes

Vince Carter

Rashard Lewis

Mickael Pietrus

J.J Reddick

 

The wing position (shooting guard/small forward for all you ‘technical position’ guys) for the Magic is incredibly deep and might be a collection of some of the more talented scorers/shooters that the league has to offer.

 

Vince Carter will be the offensive centerpiece for the Magic this off season. His ability to shoot from range, score, handle and create for himself is, as was said before, detrimental to the Magic if they want to have a chance at winning.

 

Carter brings a career 23.5 point per game scoring average to Orlando, but also brings an all-around game which has earned him numerous All-Star game selections as well as All-NBA team selections. Based on interviews, Carter is motivated and focused and ready to play for this formidable team.

 

On the other wing, the Magic have the great pleasure of having yet another greater shooter and scorer, Rashard Lewis. His long and wiry frame last season provided the Magic with a major mismatch from the power forward position on most nights. This season, he will go into a more traditional role for most of his playing time, though.

 

However, he has shown that even with a man in his face, he is able to score the basketball from range and with efficiency. He’s also shown to be quite an adequate defender against the bigger players and his long frame and quickness also allows him to play a perimeter defensive position as well.

 

On the bench, the Magic have two almost identical players: Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus. Both are more than capable defenders and three point shooters. Both will assume good minutes off the bench and both have shown that they are able to produce with some efficiency. Their defense off the bench is their most admirable quality and it will be a deciding factor on how they split they minutes and at what wing position.

 

Unfortunately, J.J Reddick is the odd-man out here and will most likely see career lows in just about every category unless he is traded to another team, which seems like a more likely solution given his talents for scoring the basketball, and recently, an improved effort on the defensive end.

 

If he does, however, stay with the Magic, he will not see an incredible amount of playing time this season unless injury strikes.

 

Big Men

 

Ryan Anderson

Brandon Bass

Adonal Foyle

Marcin Gortat

Dwight Howard

 

The Magic once again come into the season with a frightfully thin (in depth) front court. Apart from Dwight Howard, there are no major impact players in the front court who look to gain any sort of strong coverage from other teams.

 

As it seems, thus far Brandon Bass is the favourite to start at Power Forward. Although he is a more traditional power forward which eliminates the mismatch advantage that the Magic had last season, Bass brings another big body that will be able to control the boards and play inside which, aside from Dwight Howard providing this, is something that Orlando majorly lacked last season.

 

His backup will a combination of Ryan Anderson and whoever else they can manipulate into playing the power forward position for them (Lewis or Gortat?). As Anderson does not have the skills just yet to be a major contributor, he probably won’t play major minutes this season in Orlando.

 

On the low-post block, the Magic have arguably the best center in the league at the moment: Dwight Howard. Howard averaged 20.7 points per game, 14.0 rebounds per game, 2.9 blocks per game and shot 57 percent from the field.

 

He also won the Defensive Player of the Year trophy. This kind of production is almost definitely expected from Howard once again for this upcoming season. Howard is also arguably the most dominant low post player in the game today and will face major coverage through double or even triple teams to slow him down.

 

He will have to keep bringing a dominant effort like he has been in years past in order for the Magic to be a successful team.

 

Comments on the Offense

 

Orlando brings back largely the same offensive team that led them to such great success last season. They were 10th in scoring last season at 101 points per game and were 11th in offensive rating (points per 100 possessions). The Magic relied strongly on the three ball last season, averaging roughly 26 three pointers per game but shooting with amazing efficiency (.381%).

 

This season doesn’t look to be any different, with the Magic stocking up on more perimeter oriented and jump shot happy players like Vince Carter, Matt Barnes and Ryan Anderson. Having said that, however, by bringing in Brandon Bass, it gives the Magic more options as to where they want to go offensively as Bass is a perfect supplementary player to Dwight Howard within twelve feet of the basket.

 

Comments on the Defense

 

Stan Van Gundy, head coach of the Magic has really improved the Magic defense since joining the organization. In fact, he’s improved it so much, that the Magic ranked first on defensive ranking last season, allowing only 101.9 points per 100 possessions. It all begins with Dwight Howard in the post.

 

Howard has become a rock in there, grabbing every rebound, blocking a lot of shots and just imposing his authority on the opposition. Then, it continues onto the perimeter defense which was very pesky and very disruptive last season.

 

The Magic boosted this defense up another notch by adding in better than average defenders, Vince Carter and Matt Barnes. One should expect nothing less than what we saw last year on the defensive end from the Orlando Magic.

 

Discussion on the Upcoming Orlando Magic Season: Expectations

 

I personally think that the Magic have what it takes this season to once again reach the Finals. What they do when they get there is another story, but they have the talent in the Eastern Conference to once again be the champions of it. Anything less than at least an Eastern Conference Finals berth will be in my honest opinion, a season wasted.

 

The Magic reloaded with a huge name, Vince Carter in place of their third leading scorer, Hedo Turkoglu last season. They also added everything they lacked from last season; that being another energetic big man presence (Brandon Bass), another defender (Matt Barnes) and a young piece who seems to be developing at a great pace (Ryan Anderson).

 

On the individuals of the team, Dwight Howard will once again be expected to shoulder the load and average his, what seems to be coming the usual 19+ points, 13.5+ rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game.

 

Along with this, unless somebody jumps into contention, most people will most likely expect him to once more win the Defensive Player of the Year trophy.

 

Under him will be the new addition, Vince Carter, who will be expected to do what he does best: provide scoring and an all-around game which has earned him All-Star honours for so many years. Though most understand that he is 32 this season, he has not showed any signs that he is majorly declining with athletic ability or even overall play.

 

Therefore, expecting at least 18 points and four of each rebounds and assists per game next season from Carter is not unreasonable.

 

The shooter of the team, Rashard Lewis will probably have the most adjusting to do with having to go back to his old position. The Magic signed him to a major contract expecting him to contribute great numbers and it’s tough to argue that he hasn’t. But he hasn’t quite lived up to the expectation when you give a player upwards of $120 million.

 

Nevertheless, Lewis’ role is strictly shooting, shooting and more shooting. Recently, he’s also proven to be quite a clutch player, having a few big shots down the stretch of important games in the Playoffs last season. Nothing less is expected from him this upcoming season.

 

It will be interesting to see how Jameer Nelson can come back from a major injury. He was playing great basketball just before his injury in February last season. However, he clearly wasn’t ready to come back during the Finals versus the Lakers.

 

It would be good to see Nelson go back to being the 16 point, six assist per game player that he was last season, but with the addition of a ball-dominant Vince Carter, plus the unusually high shooting percentages for a usually average shooting percentage type of player that Jameer is, it doesn’t seem likely that he will emulate his performances from last season.

 

The final individual player that I feel will play an important role is Marcin Gortat which might be quite a surprise. He was not happy when the Magic re-signed him as he did not want to sit behind Howard on the bench. This season, Gortat must prove that he has the skill to be a regular rotation player.

 

If he can add a more refined and softer game around the hoop, Gortat would have no problem taking minutes at the power forward positions and producing well from there.

 

If he does not produce, however, for whatever reason, I’ll be the first to say that it won’t be surprising to see him sitting on the bench for at least 40 minutes of each game. His production is definitely an important factor for the Magic.

 

Record Prediction: 60-22 (Last season: 59-23)

Edited September 10, 2009 by AtTheDriveIn

[AtTheDriveIn]

Link To Bleacher Report:

 

CLICK HERE

 

It would be really helpful if everyone could click on the link as well. You don't have to re-read the article, but more viewership might mean a more prominent position of where not just my articles, but of all the OTR articles are placed on their website.

[Built Ford Tough]

Very good article. It was well written and very in-depth.

 

I don't really disagree with anything that you said either so I don't really know what to say lol.

 

Just one thing I noticed that I think was probably a typo. I thought I would point it out in case you didn't notice it.

 

Vince Carter will be the offensive centerpiece for the Magic this off season. His ability to shoot from range, score, handle and create for himself is, as was said before, detrimental to the Magic if they want to have a chance at winning.

 

I assume you meant to say instruamental right? Because saying detrimental is basically saying that he is going to be a negative influence/have a negative impact on the team.

 

I just thought that I would point that out in case you didn't notice it.

 

Once again though, great job. Definitely a very good article.

[Revis Island]

They got no shot.

[AtTheDriveIn]

I assume you meant to say instruamental right? Because saying detrimental is basically saying that he is going to be a negative influence/have a negative impact on the team.

 

I just thought that I would point that out in case you didn't notice it.

 

Once again though, great job. Definitely a very good article.

 

Yeah, someone at Bleacher caught me on that as well. I wasn't really thinking when I typed that is all I can say, I guess. I changed the structure of that sentence altogether so it reads right.

[Real Deal]

I don't know, man. I don't think Vince Carter is an above-average defensive player, and I'm not sure if he and Barnes replace the hole left by a playmaking Turkoglu and the defensive workhorse in Courtney Lee. I've never seen a rookie take it to Kobe like Lee did, even though he wasn't that successful in doing so...and I'm almost positive Kobe will have it easier with Vince Carter on the floor.

 

But on the other hand, having Jameer back is certainly an upgrade over Alston, even though Rafer played better than I had expected.

 

If I were a betting man, I see Orlando and Cleveland fighting in the second round, and I really can't tell you who will win that series. That's tough. LeBron will eat Vince Carter's children, and the defensive attention Howard will have to give O'Neal will allow James to get to the rack with ease.

 

Assuming Orlando does take out the Cavaliers, they will fall to a superior Boston team. I would be shocked if they didn't. As much as I hate the Celtics, they will be back in the Finals.

 

Excellent preview. Gotta go check out everyone else's now. I'm falling behind.

[Poe]

Magic will most likely fall in the 2nd round (like RD said), whether they are beaten by the Cavs or Celtics (if the Magic wind up being a 4th or 5th seeded team), and the Celtics will be in the Finals to lose to the Lakers.

 

I'm unsure whether or not the old O'Neal and LeBron combination will work just yet, though. Shaq doesn't warrant the same defensive attention as he used to, and if he's out of shape, he'll probably just wind up getting in LeBron's way. At the moment, I don't see any other Eastern team that is ECF caliber, so for now, my prediction is a Cavs vs. Celtics ECF.

[Heir Rose]

That was an informative article with a good mix of your own knowledge coupled with some statistics to support your claims. I noticed some minor grammatical errors, the most prominent being 1.) Too many commas. I remember coming across several points where there isn't a real need to pause. 2.) When you're giving a percentage, make sure you're sliding the decimal to the right two places. There were two times where you put .xxx%, when it should be xx.x%. Otherwise great work, you've got a great grasp for the game, so flaws are minimal in your writings.

 

Are you sure Lewis will start at small forward? He's a huge mismatch at the 4, and Carter/Nelson do enough playmaking on the perimeter to allow either Barnes or Pietrus to start. Bass and Gortat could then come off the bench, and Lewis can slide down to the 3.

 

Also, I don't think Rashard should be measured against other players with max contracts. If I remember correctly, he was the top player on the market when he became a free agent. Orlando most likely didn't expect him to play at the level of Kobe, Wade, etc., but considering there wasn't very much competition from other free agents, it meant a team would have to overspend for his services. He is who they thought he was: a talented second option that creates mismatches at either the 3 or the 4.

[AtTheDriveIn]

I don't know, man. I don't think Vince Carter is an above-average defensive player, and I'm not sure if he and Barnes replace the hole left by a playmaking Turkoglu and the defensive workhorse in Courtney Lee. I've never seen a rookie take it to Kobe like Lee did, even though he wasn't that successful in doing so...and I'm almost positive Kobe will have it easier with Vince Carter on the floor.

 

I think the whole point of getting Carter was to not be the same team as last year. I don't think the acquisition was about replacing a player; rather I think it was more about getting someone who will work equally as well as Turkoglu did, but in a different way. Let's face it, by the end of last season, apart from clutch plays (which requires luck as much as it does skill when you're a high-achieving clutch player), most teams had Turkoglu figured out for big chunks of the game.

 

And for the record, historically, every time Carter and Bryant have played, it's true that Bryant has scored his points, but on 37.7%FG per game. Bryant has also given up nearly 4 turnovers per game (3.6). I've never watched a Nets-Lakers game personally (because there's only been like 8 of them in the past 4 seasons), but Carter must have been doing something right against Bryant. Carter may not be a coach's dream as a defender, but he's not a slouch who will roll over and play dead when faced with a tough assignment defensively.

 

 

And I don't know if it was just me.. actually, I think it may be just me, but I don't like Courtney Lee. Has good defensive. There's definitely no doubt about that and nothing more really needs to be said about his defensive, but offensively, he's got two moves: fake right, go left, stop and pop from the elbow or three pointer of a kick out from either a penetration or some deflection. It's very basic and watching it through the playoffs, it was obvious defenders were catching on and pressuring him too much. Unsurprising to see that he shot 43% FG in the playoffs and 27% from three. And being 23 years old already, there's only so much he could improve. I never saw him as a 'must keep' player even from the beginning.

[AtTheDriveIn]

That was an informative article with a good mix of your own knowledge coupled with some statistics to support your claims. I noticed some minor grammatical errors, the most prominent being 1.) Too many commas. I remember coming across several points where there isn't a real need to pause. 2.) When you're giving a percentage, make sure you're sliding the decimal to the right two places. There were two times where you put .xxx%, when it should be xx.x%. Otherwise great work, you've got a great grasp for the game, so flaws are minimal in your writings.

 

Yeah, I'm a big fan of commas. I even used one just then even though you probably don't need to pause. I think it's kind of a habit of mine to use them. I'll try use them less, though. And I know what you're saying about the decimals. Most percentages come with .xxx so I usually use them ones, but sometimes I just round up to the number and use xx%. I'm trying to stick with one but in all honesty, I think I just get lazy sometimes.

 

Thanks for the feedback.

 

Are you sure Lewis will start at small forward? He's a huge mismatch at the 4, and Carter/Nelson do enough playmaking on the perimeter to allow either Barnes or Pietrus to start. Bass and Gortat could then come off the bench, and Lewis can slide down to the 3.

 

Well Van Gundy said the 'final' starting position (I wonder who the other four are ) was going to be between Barnes and Bass. I like Barnes, but I think any Magic fan you talk to will tell you they'd rather have Bass as a starter rather than Barnes. It's not about the mismatch anymore in my opinion. I think what the Magic lacked last year more than anything else was another tough player when Dwight was in trouble. Lewis is going to hit his threes and score his points no matter what forward position he's playing. It doesn't matter to him who's guarding him, he knows he's one of the best shooters in the league and he's not scared to throw them up.

 

Also, I don't think Rashard should be measured against other players with max contracts. If I remember correctly, he was the top player on the market when he became a free agent. Orlando most likely didn't expect him to play at the level of Kobe, Wade, etc., but considering there wasn't very much competition from other free agents, it meant a team would have to overspend for his services. He is who they thought he was: a talented second option that creates mismatches at either the 3 or the 4.

 

Well if I remember correctly, the Sonics weren't going to match max contracts, and there was one other team after him who wasn't willing to spend more than $90 (or it could have been 75 over less years) million. The Magic by no means had to offer $120 for his services. Their first offer, in fact, was 5 years, $75 million ($15 million a season) and the eventually settled for 6 years, $120 (117, to be exact, I think: roughly 20 million a season). There wasn't any importance in raising giving him that much, but they did anyway. And unfortunately, he's always going to be compared to superstars when his salary is as big or bigger than 95% of the league's.

[Heir Rose]

One more thing, concerning Brandon Bass. He makes me think of Kurt Thomas a lot in terms of size, rebounding, and his ability to hit a midrange jumper. Do you think this is an adequate comparison?

 

Thanks for the response.

[Diesel]

They got no shot.

 

Agreed, they couldn't win last year with a better team.

 

Hedo Turkoglu is better than Vince Carter alone. He created more mismatches for Orlando which is something they lived upon. He was a better shooter and passer. Then you get rid of Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston and I don't see the improvement. They better hope Jameer comes back strong. Courtney Lee is going to be a very good player and NJ got a steal in trading an overpaid player thats way past his prime for that young stud.

[OldChili]

Agreed, they couldn't win last year with a better team.

 

Hedo Turkoglu is better than Vince Carter alone. He created more mismatches for Orlando which is something they lived upon. He was a better shooter and passer. Then you get rid of Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston and I don't see the improvement. They better hope Jameer comes back strong. Courtney Lee is going to be a very good player and NJ got a steal in trading an overpaid player thats way past his prime for that young stud.

Haha, Hedo has two good seasons with Orlando and all of a sudden he's better than Carter.

 

Hedo shoots a career average of 43%, compared to Carter's 45%. Last year alone Hedo managed to only shoot 41% while Carter managed to shoot a solid 44%. And that's not even factoring how much more pressure Carter faces, considering he's been the number one option on his teams for practically all of his career. And looking at last year alone, Hedo shot 35.6% from three compared to Carter's 38.5%. And it's not like Turkoglu was getting any younger; he's only two years younger than Vince.

 

And as for passing, I disagree on that as well. Carter is an extremely under-rated passer. Turkoglu is only great passer/playmaker for his size. And unlike Carter, Hedo has more than two players he can pass to.

[Revis Island]

Agreed, they couldn't win last year with a better team.

 

Hedo Turkoglu is better than Vince Carter alone. He created more mismatches for Orlando which is something they lived upon. He was a better shooter and passer. Then you get rid of Courtney Lee, and Rafer Alston and I don't see the improvement. They better hope Jameer comes back strong. Courtney Lee is going to be a very good player and NJ got a steal in trading an overpaid player thats way past his prime for that young stud.

No, Carter is the better player, but there's no guarantee he's the better fit and Yes Hedo created massive mismatches with his size alone.

 

Jameer is going to look like a fluke season next season just like Mike James did in 06.

[AtTheDriveIn]

Jameer is going to look like a fluke season next season just like Mike James did in 06.

 

He probably wont sink to the bottom of the bench like James did, but I actually agree with you in saying that Jameer wont be as good next season. I don't believe so, anyway.