Hall of Fame "locks"

[Phightins]

The Neftali Feliz thread got me thinking. Which current MLB players, if they were to retire today, would be absolute locks to get to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot? I suppose a lot of this depends on how liberal each of your views on the Hall of Fame are, but I guess that's what I want to find out (I happen to be very selective). This is not a thread to predict which young super-prospects may wind up there. This is all based on how the players have performed so far in their careers. Also, try to keep steroid allegations out of the equation. I know a lot of you are against steroid users in the Hall which is fine, but lets just keep this to numbers. It will get too messy if we try to point fingers.

 

Pitchers:

 

Absolutely 100% locks:

 

John Smoltz

Pedro Martinez

Randy Johnson

Tom Glavine

Mariano Rivera

 

Well, the first three go without saying, and I see no way you can keep Tom Glavine out either, not with 305 wins. Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all time in a lot of people's minds (myself included).

 

Nearly locks: (this group could probably make it should they retire today, however they are still in their primes and may need 1-2 more great years)

 

Roy Halladay

Johan Santana

 

This is where I think we will start to have some disagreement, since some of you would probably put these guys down as absolute locks already. I think they are as close as it gets, but since they are in their primes I would like to see what they do in the next 2-3 years. But at the rate these two are going, I don't think there is any question that they will be in Cooperstown four years after they retire.

 

 

Honestly that is all I can come up with right now as far as near locks go. As I said I am very selective. There are some fringe guys though. I think there are a few guys such as Chris Carpenter and Brandon Webb who are heading in the right direction if they can stay healthy, and in Webb's case possibly go to a better baseball market, but as of now the numbers are not there. And obviously the guys like Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, and Felix Hernandez are looking promising, but there is just way too small of a sample size as of now.

 

 

Position Players:

 

 

Absolute Locks:

 

Derek Jeter

Alex Rodriguez

Manny Ramirez

Jim Thome

Albert Pujols

Chipper Jones

Gary Sheffield

Ken Griffey Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero

 

I doubt there will be much argument over these guys. I can't think of any other guys who are nearly 100% locks.

 

Borderline:

 

Scott Rolen

Jason Giambi

Jorge Posada

Miguel Tejada

Bobby Abreu

 

I really think that if Rolen can put together 3 or 4 more healthy seasons, his offensive numbers might actually be close enough, and combining that with the fact that IMO he is one of the top gloves at 3B ever, I think he will have a very good shot. Giambi and Tejada will obviously have the steroid allegations surrounding them, but based on pure numbers they have a shot. Tejada still has a few years to improve on his too, in all likelihood. Posada is the ultimate fringe hall of famer. I just threw him in there because of the position he plays. I do not expect him to make it on the first ballot (if he even makes it at all) unless it is a very light year of candidates. And Abreu should be an absolute lock within the next 2-3 seasons. He is just the definition of consistency.

 

And, as with the pitchers, there are plenty of young guys who look like they are headed in this direction (Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, etc), but this thread is not for predicting the future.

 

 

 

Also, I am kind of tired and may have just flat out missed some obvious ones. So, lets see what everybody else thinks.

Edited September 12, 2009 by Phightins09

[fish7718]

I agree with your pitchers for the most part. I think you may have just forgot about Hoffman because he's a lock simply for just holding the record. I also think Halladay has proven enough, once Santana hits 150 wins I think he would have proven enough too. When it comes to your hitters I disagree. Personally I feel Jeter still has to hit at least 3,000 hits because he has few homeruns and decent but not staggering ops. I also don't think any of the borderline guys would make it. Rolen is tragic because if he could have just stayed healthy he'd be a lock but he just gassed out. Pudge is definitely a lock. Nothing much comes to mind I'll come back to this thread if I can think of some more guys.

[trutrojan8]

No Todd Helton? Regardless of what ballpark he played in, hitting well over .300 for your career is damn good.

[Warren2ThaG]

Ichiro

[fish7718]

Agree with Ichiro, not so much Helton. Helton one the best fielding first basemen of his era. .995 ops however 2114 hits 324 hrs and no rings. If he can get to 2,500 350-400 hrs I'd say he'd then be borderline. It'd really help him if he could win a ring or a WS MVP for that matter.

Edited September 12, 2009 by Fish7718

[trutrojan8]

Five time all-star, .328 CAREER average, 506 doubles, 324 home runs, 3 gold gloves, and he's not even considered? Damn.

Edited September 12, 2009 by trutrojan8

[fish7718]

Five time all-star, .328 CAREER average, 506 doubles, 324 home runs, 3 gold gloves, and he's not even considered? Damn.

He'll be considered. 5 all-star appearances is not overly impressive. I mean sure it will mark him as a great player but you need to be one of the greatest ever to make it in the hall of fame. Again I think the lack of winning in his career is really going to hurt him. His resume is more impressive than Jeter but Jeter has 4 rings and might win a 5th this year.

[trutrojan8]

So how is Vlad a lock if he hasn't won a ring either?

[Phightins]

I completely skipped over Helton in my mind while making this list, my apologies. Anyway, I see both sides of the argument here. Very good numbers which will likely only improve in the next couple years, but you really need to take the park into consideration with him. I know he would have been an all-star caliber guy playing in any other city, but a hall of fame guy? It is questionable. The numbers would not be nearly what they are now. With that said, I do think he winds up in the Hall.

 

And yeah Ichiro is in too, my bad on skipping over him.

[trutrojan8]

What do you think about Pudge?

[Warren2ThaG]

Helton is on tha steroid list guys...

[Phightins]

What do you think about Pudge?

 

Oh yeah, another brain fart.

 

Now that I think about it, there are a lot of current players who are looking like locks. When I was making my list I was trying to keep it as exclusive as possible, but lots of these guys really have numbers that are too good to ignore.

[xx.]

You definitely forgot Frank Thomas.

[Phightins]

You definitely forgot Frank Thomas.

 

Didn't really think of him as a current player. Same reason Greg Maddux isn't on the list.

[xx.]

The Big Hurt is hurt.

[EastCoastNiner]

I don't think that Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, and Vladimir Guerrero are "locks" by any means, and I would even say that if the writers use steroids performance enhancing drugs against these players, than you can take off A-Rod and Manny Ramirez.

 

So, I think that the only position player that you listed that is a "lock" is Derek Jeter, but that doesn't mean that I don't think that some of those players don't deserve to be in.

 

Also, for the "borderline" players, I think there is a decent chance that a few of them get it.

[Phightins]

I don't think that Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, and Vladimir Guerrero are "locks" by any means, and I would even say that if the writers use steroids performance enhancing drugs against these players, than you can take off A-Rod and Manny Ramirez.

 

So, I think that the only position player that you listed that is a "lock" is Derek Jeter, but that doesn't mean that I don't think that some of those players don't deserve to be in.

 

Also, for the "borderline" players, I think there is a decent chance that a few of them get it.

 

Yeah, well I was just going on numbers, trying not to think about steroid allegations for this particular discussion.

[bigdog17k]

I don't think that Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, and Vladimir Guerrero are "locks" by any means, and I would even say that if the writers use steroids performance enhancing drugs against these players, than you can take off A-Rod and Manny Ramirez.

 

So, I think that the only position player that you listed that is a "lock" is Derek Jeter, but that doesn't mean that I don't think that some of those players don't deserve to be in.

 

Also, for the "borderline" players, I think there is a decent chance that a few of them get it.

 

I feel that Thome, and Jones are locks. Sheffield, and Guerrero are iffy to me. Not sure how things will turn out for A-Rod and Manny, with the steroid use.

[fly3rs18]

I don't think that Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, and Vladimir Guerrero are "locks" by any means, and I would even say that if the writers use steroids performance enhancing drugs against these players, than you can take off A-Rod and Manny Ramirez.

 

if thome and his 564 homers isnt a lock then i dont know what is.