A Reason For Optimisim Or A Desperate Reach?

[Built Ford Tough]

So far this season the Raptors have had one of the toughest schdueles in the entire NBA, if not the toughest schedule. We all know this, and we knew that it would be the case coming into the season. Raptor fans were full of optimism coming into the season with the mvoes that were made in the offseason and we all had playoff aspirations, some even had aspirations of making the 2nd round. Some of these expectations of come to a crashing halt with the Raptors 13-17 start.

 

However, after looking around at the schedule and what not, there is still some reason for optimisim when it comes to the Raptors.

 

So far this season, the Raptors have lost 17 out of their 30 games. Out of those 17 games, 13 of them have come against teams that are above .500 and they are:

 

Orlando - .750

Dallas - .714

San Antonio - .600

Phoenix - .643

Denver - .679

Utah - .571

Orlando - .750

Boston - .808

Phoenix - .643

Atlanta - .731

Atlanta - .731

Miami - .520

Orlando - .750

 

4 of those 17 losses have come against teams below .500 and they are:

 

Memphis - .444

Charlotte - .385

Washington - .320

Milwaukee - .462

 

So if you average all of these numbers out, the combined winning percentage of teams that the Raptors have lost to is .618

 

However, if you take out the 4 losses against the sub .500 teams you have a winning percentage of .684

 

The Raptors 13 wins this season have come against the following teams:

 

Cleveland - .724

Detroit - .407

New Orleans - .462

Chicago - .385

LA Clippers - .444

Miami - .520

Indiana - .346

Washington - .320

Chicago - .385

Minnesota - .179

Houston - .593

New Jersey - .071

New Orleans - .462

 

The Raptors victims this season have a combined winning percentage of .407

 

However, if you take out the Nets and T'Wolves attrocities, it is .459

 

Now I am usually a very pessimistic fan (can you blame me though? lol) but these numbers do have to give you some hope heading forward. They basically show that the Raptors are losing to the teams that they are supposed to lose to, while beating the teams that they are supposed to beat (obviously there are a few exceptions, but those balance each other out). This, combined with the fact that the Raptors schedule gets substantially easier after the month of Janurary while teams like in front of the Raptors like the Heat and Bucks schedules get harder than what they have endured thus far, particularly the Bucks, is reason for optimism from Raptor fans.

 

Another thing to look forward to is the fact that the Raptors have already played 12 games against the superior Western Conference, 10 against the best division in the East, the Southeast, and only 2 against the Atlantic division, which aside from Boston is incredibly weak.

 

So what do you guys think about this? Am I just a depressed Raptors fan reaching for something to look forward to, or do you agree that this is reason for optimisim heading forward?

[Check my Stats]

We are 3/20 against teams above .500. I think when our line up of hustle guys is most effective is against crappy teams, it means we haven't found ways to be effective against the upper echelon teams. While this is a new team I expected we would be 'gelled' by now. While I agree it is a slight sign of optimism to be had, I just worry what we have to look forward to. I mean what, if we continue to beat up on the crappy teams then we win 45 games, but then what get swept by a top team in the first round?

 

I think our team has really just proven how mediocre we are. Also the better teams are able to pick our defense apart while crappy teams struggle to. Sure we can beat up on the crappy teams but hopefully as the season moves forward we have learn how to beat the better teams. I think we have definitely shown we are talented enough to be on the level of the Heat or so, but we need to provide consistent energy. It is like our team only gets up against the crappy teams.

 

This is why I can't wait for Evans to get in the line up, because I feel like he will consistently be on his teammates, providing motivations and making sure no one is slacking. My hope is he can sort of be the leader of this team because I question whether or not Bosh can lead this team emotionally. I think if our guys worked their asses off and gave 110% every night, we could be a very good team.

 

I think Jack starting is a step in the direction of our team having a better, more natural chemistry. Jose demands too much of the ball and it feels awkward when he is out there. With Jack we can allow Hedo to handle it more and we have a competent defensive PG on the floor for 30+ minutes. One thing I am not looking forward to is the return of the Jose-Jack backcourt -_-

 

Also I think Sonny has been a stud since getting consistent minutes. If he can continue to play a complete game like he has of late I think he is definitely better than Antoine. He has forced up less and less shots and is getting a lot more comfortable, he is a good passer and a smart player. I hope he can continue this level of play and steal minutes from Marco.

[Built Ford Tough]

Here is a quote from Triano that talks about how much easier the Raptors schedule gets over their next 30 games.

 

“Our first 30 games happened in 53 days; our next 30 happen in 73 days. That’s 20 more days where we can do two things: No. 1, rest; and No. 2, practice.”

 

I haven't looked at the rest of the leagues schedules, but I would imagine that a swing of 20 games would have to be considered fairly drastic. The Raptors have played the 2nd most games in the NBA thus far, I believe.

[Poe]

Despite defensive setbacks... I think this team is in a good situation. Really, besides Bosh and Calderon, it's basically a brand new team. The players are getting used to one another, and chemistry will build over time.

 

They are already in the seventh seed, and I think they have much more potential than the Bucks who occupy the 6th spot atm. They'll probably wind up taking that 6th seed by the end of this year, or maybe even better than that if they can put together some good winning streaks. That's a pretty good improvement to last year, and as chemistry builds (and hopefully defensive intensity as well), they should become an even better team for next year.... if they manage to keep Bosh, of course.

[Newman]

I really like how the Raptors is making use of Sonny Weems, he's one of my favorite Sophomore. As for the Raptors, as the season progresses, they're surely going to only get better as all the new players gel together. This team is too talented and got too much depth to be outside of the playoffs.

[Built Ford Tough]

So with the Raptors winning tonight in Detroit and the Bucks losing to the Wizards, the Raptors have moved into the 6th seed in the East.

 

To finish off 2009 the Raptors play Detroit and Charlotte, both games at home. The Bucks play San Antonio at home and then head to Charlotte and Orlando.

 

Realistically, I see o reason why the Raptors can't win both of there games (I wouldn't bet on it but this is a much better team at home) while I would definitely be surprised to see the Bucks go 3-0 to close out the year, in fact, I would be surprised by anything better than 1-2. Hopefully the Raptors can put a little bit of distance between theirsevles and the Bucks because the first little stretch in Janurary is absolutely killer with Boston twice, San Antonio and Orlando (and somebody else who I forget, Cleveland maybe?).

 

They are 2.5 games back of Miami for the 5th seed as well, who play New York, Indiana and a back to back with New Orleans and San Antonio.

 

If the Raptors can manage to keep pace with the Bucks and Heat (and every other team in the playoff hunt) up until the end of January, they could really make some noise in Feburary where their schedule eases up considerably.

[BasX]

A lot of good reading guys, and I'll post more later, but, I still cannot believe we are 6th. I completely understand the East sucks below us, but still, we haven't touched our peak and we are in the playoffs.

[Doc]

haha well my prediction for the season is pretty good then, I said 5th or 6th and we are right there. God I love the East.

[BasX]

haha well my prediction for the season is pretty good then, I said 5th or 6th and we are right there. God I love the East.

I love our division, the Knicks are third. Our division goes

1 - Celtics

2 - Raptors

3 - Knicks

4 - 76ers

5 - Nets

[Built Ford Tough]

I love our division, the Knicks are third. Our division goes

1 - Celtics

2 - Raptors

3 - Knicks

4 - 76ers

5 - Nets

 

The thing that I love the most is that I honestly don't see any of these teams turning it around this season.

 

The Nets are an absolute lost cause and are 100% tanking the season.

The Sixers are just way too dysfunctional and have talent that doesn't coexist.

The Knicks, while they have played well recently, they are the Knicks.

 

If Toronto can take care of business when they play their own division I see absolutely no reason why they can't get 10 or so wins off of these three teams alone. If they take care of business when they play their own division, it could go a long, long, way towards them finishing around the 5th or 6th seed.

[Poe]

The Knicks have a good chance to make the playoffs. They've already turned it around this month winning 8 of their last 12.

[Cleveland's Finest]

This team has too much talent to let up easily.

 

Hedo was such a big acquisition and Bargani looks good when I see the highlights and box scores. Even after the things you may not like about your team, if I'm a Raptor fan I'm confident that my team will 1) make the playoffs and possible get home field advantage at the 4 seed (because I think the Hawks will slide, the Heat are too inconsistent, and the Raptors have been winning) and 2) have the talent to make a run for making the 2nd round if they can get the 4 or 5 seed....they can even upset one of the top 3 teams. This is because they have Hedo, and we saw what he did last year in the playoffs. Also they have so much length and agile bigs which is what hurt teams like Cleveland last year with all the athletic big men.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Cleveland's Finest

[Erick Blasco]

I don't remember what the final score was but they held the Pistons in the 60's. That's mind boggling that Toronto could do that. The East is so bad that all Toronto has to do is play reasonable defense and they should have enough talent to slip into a low seed. They're playing a little better, let's see if they can sustain it.

[Built Ford Tough]

I don't remember what the final score was but they held the Pistons in the 60's. That's mind boggling that Toronto could do that. The East is so bad that all Toronto has to do is play reasonable defense and they should have enough talent to slip into a low seed. They're playing a little better, let's see if they can sustain it.

 

A lot of it had to do with the fact that the Pistons were missing their 3 best players (Gordon, Hamilton and Prince) and Charlie Villanueva and Will Bynum were both injured and shouldn't have been playing, but becuase of the injuries, they were forced to play. All the Raptors had to do with stop Stuckey and that was really the only offensove threat on the floor.

 

Not that I am complaining though, lol.

 

This team has too much talent to let up easily.

 

Hedo was such a big acquisition and Bargani looks good when I see the highlights and box scores. Even after the things you may not like about your team, if I'm a Raptor fan I'm confident that my team will 1) make the playoffs and possible get home field advantage at the 4 seed (because I think the Hawks will slide, the Heat are too inconsistent, and the Raptors have been winning) and 2) have the talent to make a run for making the 2nd round if they can get the 4 or 5 seed....they can even upset one of the top 3 teams. This is because they have Hedo, and we saw what he did last year in the playoffs. Also they have so much length and agile bigs which is what hurt teams like Cleveland last year with all the athletic big men.

 

Eh, I just don't see how the Raptors have any shot of catching the Hawks. Getting off to a great start is one thing, but sustaining it for nearly half of the season makes you for real as far as I am concerned. They may fall behind the Cavs, Celtics and Magic, but no way do they fall out of that 4th seed if you ask me.

 

The only team that I can see them upsetting in the playoffs would be Cleveland, and even then, I would give them no more than a 5% chance to do it, if that. The only reason I say this is because of the mismatch that Toronto's bigs have over Cleveland's bigs.

 

Even then, LeBron would have an absolute field day and make up for that, and if Shaq plays like he is capable of, the Raptors would get swept.

 

Maybe they could steal a game against Orlando or Cleveland, but that would be the most I could see. Boston would dominate them.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Built Ford Tough

[Poe]

Eh, I just don't see how the Raptors have any shot of catching the Hawks. Getting off to a great start is one thing, but sustaining it for nearly half of the season makes you for real as far as I am concerned. They may fall behind the Cavs, Celtics and Magic, but no way do they fall out of that 4th seed if you ask me.

This may sound crazy right now, but I think by somewhere between the middle to the end of January, the Heat will have a better record than the Hawks. The Raptors' best shot is to actually overtake the Hawks' record, not the Heat's.

 

Anyway, I know it's a bold prediction and it sounds like I'm being a total homer. Maybe I am, but I don't think it will be too long before the Heat grab the 4th seed. I'll at least stay realistic, though. They aren't touching the top 3 teams unless some crazy injury happens to one of the top 3 and their record takes a huge slide.

[Built Ford Tough]

Raptors are now only half a game back of the Heat for 5th place in the East and 3 of their next 4 games are against teams under .500 (Philly, Indy, New York).

 

Like I said earlier in this thread though, if they can keep pace with the Heat until the end of January, they can really make a move during Feburary where they play Indiana, NJ twice, Philly, Washington, Sacramento, Memphis, Portland, Cleveland and OKC. 7 of these 10 games are also home games, where the Raptors play much better basketball, and 2 of those 3 road games come against Indiana and New Jersey (OKC being the other one).

 

If the Raptors can continue to stay around the .500 mark for the rest of this month, they could really make a move in Feburary. Who knows, with the way the Hawks have been playing of late, combined with a relatively easy schedule for the majority of the season, the Raptors may be able to make a push for the 4th seed and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, although I wouldn't hold my breath for that one, lol.

 

Winning 2 out of 3 against the Celtics, Spurs and Magic were huge though. Being .500 right now probably wasn't a realistic possibility in most Raptors fans. To be honest, this is probably the first time since the 2nd week of the season or so that I am actually optimistic about this team. I still think that they are going to be a quick exit in the playoffs, but no longer do I think that they are going to be fighting tooth and nail to just get into the playoffs.

[BasX]

This team looks good. You explained a lot of what I'm feeling, which why Friday scares me. If it were at home, we win by 30, but on the road, you never know. Calderon off the bench was great, even better than 3 years ago, and we STILL don't have Reggie. The Raptors need to take it one game at a time. What has impressed me the most is Bargnani's post D and it keeps getting better. People will see the 6 fouls and Dwights 70% and ignore that but Bargnani has gotten so much better. Also, I got pumped when Bargnani hit those back-to-back threes from Jose, Bargnani has turned into a clutch player.

 

I hate the two PG lineups with Jack and Jose though, BUT I have a hard time figuring out late in games who should play at the SG spot.

[Built Ford Tough]

Oh yeah, I forgot to add something to that last post of mine.

 

After the next two games, both of which are against divisional opponents, the Raptors will have played 5 games against Atlantic Division teams, 3 of those games will have been against the Boston Celtics. So that means that over the next 44 games, the Raptors will play the New Jersey Nets 3 more times (2 road, 1 home), the Philadelphia 76'ers 3 more times(1 road, 2 home), the New York Knicks 4 times (2 road, 2 home) and the Boston Celtics 1 more time (home) for a total of 11 games against Atlantic Division teams. So that means 25% of the Raptors next 44 games will come against Atlantic Division teams, who have a combined winning percentage of 38.6% including Boston and 26.4% excluding Boston.

 

This is definitely something to look forward to if you are a Raptor fan, if you ask me.

Edited January 7, 2010 by Built Ford Tough

[Built Ford Tough]

Figured that I would update this thread with the latest reason for optimism.

 

The Raptors are currently a half game up on the Heat and 1 game up on both the Bobcats and Bulls. The Raptors are entering what is probably the most forgiving part of their schedule while both the Heat and the Bobcats are going to be playing quite a few games on the road over the next little while. This is particularly bad for the Cats who are 4-17 away from Charlotte which is tied for 2nd worst in the Eastern Conference

 

Anyways, here are the Raptors, Heat, Bobcats and Bulls upcoming schedules with the winning percentage of each team in brackets and the combined winning percentage at the end.

 

Toronto:

 

@ New York (0.409)

Vs. Indiana (0.348)

@ Indiana (0.348)

Vs. New Jersey (0.091)

Vs. Sacramento (0.364)

Vs. Philadelphia (0.333)

Vs. Memphis (0.568)

@ New Jersey (0.091)

Vs. Washington (0.318)

 

Combined winning percentage = 31.8%

 

Miami:

 

@ Detroit (0.341)

@ Milwaukee (0.432)

vs Milwaukee (0.432)

@ Boston (0.690)

@ Cleveland (0.766)

@ Chicago (0.500)

vs Houston (0.545)

@ Atlanta (0.674)

@ Philadelphia (0.333)

 

Combined winning percentage = 52.4%

 

Chicago:

 

@ New Orleans (0.545)

vs LA Clippers (0.444)

@ Philadelphia (0.333)

@ Atlanta (0.674)

vs Miami (0.511)

@ Indiana (0.348)

vs Orlando (0.644)

vs New York (0.409)

@ New York (0.409)

 

Combined winning percentage = 48%

 

Charlotte:

 

@ Golden State(0.302)

@ Sacramento (0.364)

@ Portland (0.587)

@ LA Lakers (0.761)

vs New Orleans (0.545)

vs Washington (0.318)

@ Minnesota (0.191)

vs New Jersey (0.091)

vs Cleveland (0.766)

 

Combined winning percentage = 43.6%

 

Just by looking at the schedule and nothing more, if the Raptors are going to make a move and create some seperation between theirselves and the Heat, Bobcats and Bulls, this upcoming stretch is without a doubt the best time to do so. This stretch of games can really help the Raptors create some seperation between theirselves and the competition.

 

I'm not counting my eggs before they hatch though, as I am well aware that the Raptors need to take care of business and pick up the W's, which is by no means a guarntee.

[BasX]

The New York Game Tonight scares me. Also, when is the last time we played on a Thursday? Crazy. Besides that, maybe the Pacers on the road. The Nets games scares me ONLY because losing to them... well... would be embarrassing. The Grizzlies are good but at home and revenge should be enough.

[Poe]

This may sound crazy right now, but I think by somewhere between the middle to the end of January, the Heat will have a better record than the Hawks. The Raptors' best shot is to actually overtake the Hawks' record, not the Heat's.

 

Anyway, I know it's a bold prediction and it sounds like I'm being a total homer. Maybe I am, but I don't think it will be too long before the Heat grab the 4th seed. I'll at least stay realistic, though. They aren't touching the top 3 teams unless some crazy injury happens to one of the top 3 and their record takes a huge slide.

I couldn't have been more wrong, lol. Good job to the Raptors for their improvement. They played well on the defensive end yesterday. Shame on the Heat for not executing and finding consistency.

 

I thought the Hawks' record would drop. They had a bad stretch, but bounced back well enough and are managing to stay in the group of elites in the East.

 

 

BTW, I think I'm the biggest homer on the site. I'm always overrating my team

[Check my Stats]

The Heat, Bobcats and Raptors are all very comparable teams, anyone of them could finish 5th IMO. The drop off after 4 is dramatic though, I don't expect any team out of the top 4 to make it out of the first round.

 

I am very optimistic about the future with this team though, with the huge strides Bargnani has made in the last half of last year and this season so far, along with Demar hopefully developing, if Bosh stays I think we have a really solid core.

 

I think Bargnani is a legitimate second scoring option in the NBA now, or at least will be soon, which is something Bosh has NEVER had before, hopefully Bosh realizes no one in FA can provide a better overall team than we can right now while also allowing him to be the best player on the team, which is something he apparently desires.

[Built Ford Tough]

I couldn't have been more wrong, lol. Good job to the Raptors for their improvement. They played well on the defensive end yesterday. Shame on the Heat for not executing and finding consistency.

 

I thought the Hawks' record would drop. They had a bad stretch, but bounced back well enough and are managing to stay in the group of elites in the East.

 

 

BTW, I think I'm the biggest homer on the site. I'm always overrating my team

 

Meh, everybody has their homer moments. At least your prediction isn't as bad as my one for the Raptors last year. I predicted around 45 wins and the 4th or 5th seed in the East and they ended up winning 33 games and 2nd last in their division.

 

I liked your comments about JO during the summer though when you were predicting 18/8 for him. I just found it funny because it was basically the exact same things that I was saying the year prior and, like you, I wasn't listening to anybody try and tell me otherwise.

 

I don't think there really are that many homers on this site though. Like I said, everybody has their homer moments, but this place is really good for the most part at keeping the homerism to a minimum.

[BasX]

I love this team, but no matter how good they play, Raptor fans will always wonder how we will screw it up. It's not that we are pessimists, we have seen it so many times before. As long as we take it one game at a time, I can't see why we can't get away from the 6th and 7th teams.

 

Also, this recent winning has to make Bosh happy. Not only are the Raptors 5th, but they are competing with top teams and beating some of them. Right Now, I see no reason at all why he would leave. Winning tonight would make Raptor fans heighten expectations, because winning a back-to-back, on the road, to go 3 games above .500, against a division rival, with a all-star snub and a team we beat once before would be so awesome.

 

Because I wrote that we will lose tonight.

[Poe]

Meh, everybody has their homer moments. At least your prediction isn't as bad as my one for the Raptors last year. I predicted around 45 wins and the 4th or 5th seed in the East and they ended up winning 33 games and 2nd last in their division.

 

I liked your comments about JO during the summer though when you were predicting 18/8 for him. I just found it funny because it was basically the exact same things that I was saying the year prior and, like you, I wasn't listening to anybody try and tell me otherwise.

 

I don't think there really are that many homers on this site though. Like I said, everybody has their homer moments, but this place is really good for the most part at keeping the homerism to a minimum.

In the summer I predicted the Heat to be a 50 win team. I thought Chalmers would GROW from his very, very solid rookie performance for the Heat... instead he stopped showing up to practice early, among other things, and his overall game took a huge slide. I thought Daequan Cook would add more aspects to his game while improving his three point shot... instead he's shooting 28.6% from the field and 28.8% from 3. I though JO was "back"... while his bad knee was actually fixed, it turns out he was still fragile as [expletive] bruising his hip and breaking his nose, and now he's too timid to rebound the damn ball like he did the first few games this year.

 

I'm learning that not everything goes according to plan. The only players to play somewhat as well as I expected is Michael Beasley, Dorell Wright, and of course, Dwyane Wade (despite what people say about him "dogging it", he's still producing even better numbers than his career averages). It looks like the Heat have some major holes to fill at the 1, 3, and 5 going into next year.

 

That's all good, though. With the cap room the Heat have, they still have a great chance at putting together a championship caliber team this upcoming summer.