Basketball Prospectus Power Rankings

[Erick Blasco]

At least in terms of writeups, the site has some of the best power rankings going right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

5. (7) Orlando Magic (52.7 / 4.2%) [ 53 / 54 / 49 ]

Rankings: NET: 5; OFF: 9; DEF: 6; PACE: 15

 

The free-falling Magic have lost seven of nine and have dropped behind Atlanta in the Southeast Division. If Stan Van Gundy doesn't right the ship soon, the Bobcats are going to be on his team's tail. I watched Orlando's nationally-televised loss in Portland with Magic blogger Eddy Rivera and it was easy to pick up on his frustration. Just as it has seemed to me when I watched Orlando in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, Rivera seemed to feel that "something just isn't right." Not to beat a dead horse, but I just keep coming back to the presence of Vince Carter. Forget about Carter's numbers for a moment. Forget about usage rates and offensive efficiency, WARP, defensive metrics. Forget all that. (But only for a second!) Last season, my system pegged Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis as the 6th and 19th most valuable players in the league, respectively. This season, Howard is taking 3.2 fewer shots per game and has 20 games in which he's gotten fewer than 10 shots. And the increasingly disgruntled Lewis is averaging his fewest shots per game in nine years. Indeed, something isn't right.

 

 

 

 

9. (5) Phoenix Suns (50.5 / 2.8%) [ 48 / 46 / 38 ]

Rankings: NET: 10; OFF: 1; DEF: 28; PACE: 3

 

The Suns have become the anti-Grizzlies. After starting 10-2 this season, Phoenix has now gone 14-16 after losing to Memphis on Monday. The problem is defense. The Suns (28th in Defensive Rating) just don't get enough stops. So what does Alvin Gentry do? He plays lineup juggling! Robin Lopez started in place of Channing Frye at center, while Leandro Barbosa took the spot of two-guard Jason Richardson. How these moves were supposed to bolster the defense is unclear, but perhaps Gentry is unaware that the defense is the problem. As it is, the Suns' season in unraveling fast and the Amare Stoudemire trade rumors are about to kick into high gear.

 

 

 

 

15. (16) Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 / 0.0%) [ 44 / 40 / 30 ]

Rankings: NET: 16; OFF: 10; DEF: 23; PACE: 8

 

The Grizzlies are demonstrating why using a team's percentage of assisted field goals as a symptom of offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) is not always a good idea. Memphis is again the league's worst passing team, yet rank a solid 10th in offensive efficiency. Lionel Hollins' crew is also evidence that the old fashioned dual post model can still work in today's NBA. In both trend-bucking examples, the explanation can be traced back to offensive rebounding, the mastery of which can mask all sorts of ugliness. Not only do the Grizzlies lead the league in offensive rebound percentage, but their .331 figure (through Sunday) is uniquely excellent by contemporary standards. If you count this season as the last of the 00s, which I do, then Memphis' current offensive rebound rate has been surpassed by only five of 296 teams. Three of those teams, by the way, were the Danny Fortson-fueled Golden State teams from early in the decade. My, how times have changed.

 

 

 

 

22. (21) New York Knicks (33.6 / 0.0%) [ 32 / 36 / 31 ]

Rankings: NET: 19; OFF: 19; DEF: 19; PACE: 9

 

By the time Darko Milicic is safely delivered back to the other side of the pond to resume the active part of his basketball career, there may never be a player more soured by his NBA experience. The poor guy. Milicic of late has grumbled about having to travel with a team that clearly has no use for him. He wants to leave, but he also wants the money his contract dictates he is to "earn". No matter what has happened to relegate a player to that status, you have to feel for him. At least the Pacers told Jamaal Tinsley just to stay away. Matt Harpring isn't required to set up a locker at the Ford Center. I've seen one of these hopelessly inactive players this season sitting in the corner of one team's locker room after a game. All around him were worn out teammates in various stages of undress, while this player sat in well-tailored suit looking as fresh as a daisy. The team was headed straight for the airport after the game and a locker room attendant came over to pick up the player's travel bag. The player look guilt-stricken, with a look on his face that said, "Geez, I might as well do that myself." Free Darko. Someone should start a Web site.

 

 

 

 

 

Power Rankings

[Poe]

14. (14) Miami Heat (42.6 / 0.1%) [ 42 / 39 / 44 ]

Rankings: NET: 14; OFF: 14; DEF: 13; PACE: 26

Michael Beasley has emerged as Miami's second-best player this season. Come to think of it, he probably was last season as well, but it wasn't as widely recognized. Beasley is still more volume than efficiency, but there is no question the guy can score in the NBA. His second season looks remarkably like his first. His playing time is the only thing that's really changed significantly. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but you'd hope to see more progress from a 21-year-old with Beasley's ability. More pressing are the rumblings that Beasley and Wade don't work well together on the floor. I haven't really noticed such a problem when watching the Heat this season, but we'll be civilized and generate a chart using the treasure trove of data at BasketballValue.com.

 

LINEUP MIN ORTG DRTG EMRG

Both 908.5 111.8 106.4 +5.4

Wade only 568.8 108.7 104.3 +4.5

Neither 70.7 103.3 115.9 -12.6

Beasley only 377.0 93.7 108.7 -15.0

 

What we learn here is that the Heat are at their best when Beasley and Wade are both on the floor. Most important for Miami is--brace yourself--having Wade on the floor, no matter who is with him. Having Beasley on the floor without Wade, however, doesn't look like such a good idea.

 

Good find on the sight. I like the write up of Beasley and the Heat. I don't see the problem with Beasley and Wade together either, and quite frankly, the numbers prove that the team works best when they are on the court together, anyway.

 

The Beasley only stat is a bit unfair, though... when he's normally playing SF during those minutes, a position he's still learning on both ends, and is forced to play with Chalmers running the point, plus not only is Wade on the bench but so is JO at the same time. It's a completely different line up altogether.

 

Beasley has actually improved this year, although the numbers haven't shown it yet. He's buying into the Heat system defensively and has been looking to draw charges, and has been successful a couple times already this season (when it took nearly 60 games to draw his first charge last season). He's shown much more effort overall on that end, and it's slowly paying off. Also, his scoring is beginning to become more into the flow of the offense, and he seems to be growing more efficient in scoring at all areas and all situations on the court. Despite what the stats may show, I'm excited on how much he will grow in the future.

[Erick Blasco]

Good find on the sight. I like the write up of Beasley and the Heat. I don't see the problem with Beasley and Wade together either, and quite frankly, the numbers prove that the team works best when they are on the court together, anyway.

 

The Beasley only stat is a bit unfair, though... when he's normally playing SF during those minutes, a position he's still learning on both ends, and is forced to play with Chalmers running the point, plus not only is Wade on the bench but so is JO at the same time. It's a completely different line up altogether.

 

Beasley has actually improved this year, although the numbers haven't shown it yet. He's buying into the Heat system defensively and has been looking to draw charges, and has been successful a couple times already this season (when it took nearly 60 games to draw his first charge last season). He's shown much more effort overall on that end, and it's slowly paying off. Also, his scoring is beginning to become more into the flow of the offense, and he seems to be growing more efficient in scoring at all areas and all situations on the court. Despite what the stats may show, I'm excited on how much he will grow in the future.

 

I think more than anything, the numbers really do indicate that while the Heat have nice pieces they can plug around Wade, there are a lot of average players on the roster. Surprise, surprise, Jermaine O'Neal hasn't been able to continue his stellar play from the beginning of the year. Q-Rich doesn't produce consistently. James Jones is just a run-of-the-mill shooter and Daequan Cook is even worse. Chalmers hasn't developed, and Arroyo is subpar. Haslem and Anthony are specialists and I apparently need to watch more Dorrell Wright.

 

Beasley's not exactly a bad player, but he's not ready to be a team's focal scorer and creator like he is on the second unit. Since the other players are specialists, defenses can focus on him more.

 

When O'Neal was playing well, the Heat could play Haslem in tandem and really plug opponents up defensively. With O'Neal playing ineffective, the Heat might be forced to play more Beasley to get more offense. Would they try to play Haslem more at the center spot?

[Poe]

I think more than anything, the numbers really do indicate that while the Heat have nice pieces they can plug around Wade, there are a lot of average players on the roster. Surprise, surprise, Jermaine O'Neal hasn't been able to continue his stellar play from the beginning of the year. Q-Rich doesn't produce consistently. James Jones is just a run-of-the-mill shooter and Daequan Cook is even worse. Chalmers hasn't developed, and Arroyo is subpar. Haslem and Anthony are specialists and I apparently need to watch more Dorrell Wright.

 

Beasley's not exactly a bad player, but he's not ready to be a team's focal scorer and creator like he is on the second unit. Since the other players are specialists, defenses can focus on him more.

 

When O'Neal was playing well, the Heat could play Haslem in tandem and really plug opponents up defensively. With O'Neal playing ineffective, the Heat might be forced to play more Beasley to get more offense. Would they try to play Haslem more at the center spot?

 

Don't be so focused on how good or bad Beasley is now versus how good he'll be tomorrow. Sure, maybe he has shown some difficulty to make plays consistently as the main option, but putting Beasley in a position to lead a group of guys for a period of time during the game is only going to make him better. He will learn from his mistakes, and as he gets used to having more pressure, he will continue to grow as a player.

 

Also, Haslem is not effective as a center. He is simply not big or athletic enough to guard centers on a regular basis unless the match up is favorable. When Beasley gets extra minutes, it will be at the SF position. He can at least potentially be developed there, instead of using an undersized PF at the C position.

 

The thing about Jermaine is that he's too used to being a skill-based player who relies on athleticism to make plays, and is now expected to do more dirty work down low. This is part of the problem with the Heat's inconsistency as a whole. They need a center who hustles on the boards game in and game out, and not just when he feels like it. He'll be a guy the Heat will need to replace come 2010, because he won't get those iso's that he's so used to throughout his career once the Heat grab an all star to pair with Wade.

 

 

Anyway, despite your perspective on the team, I think the Heat truly have enough in their roster to possibly reach the 3rd seed and finish at the top of their division. I know I sound like a broken record of a homer blindly overrating his favorite team. With the Heat, it's all about bringing consistent effort, and I'm mainly looking at Q-Rich, Beasley, and O'Neal. When this team is blowing out a team one game, getting blown out the next, and then blowing out teams two times straight.. I know the talent level isn't the case for their record being subpar to what I expected. It's that addition of an all star talent next year that will push them even further and over the top.

[JWaLL]

Link won't work:

 

Error: article 875 does not exist

[Erick Blasco]

It's working for me. Is anyone else having the same problem?

[Erick Blasco]

Don't be so focused on how good or bad Beasley is now versus how good he'll be tomorrow. Sure, maybe he has shown some difficulty to make plays consistently as the main option, but putting Beasley in a position to lead a group of guys for a period of time during the game is only going to make him better. He will learn from his mistakes, and as he gets used to having more pressure, he will continue to grow as a player.

 

Also, Haslem is not effective as a center. He is simply not big or athletic enough to guard centers on a regular basis unless the match up is favorable. When Beasley gets extra minutes, it will be at the SF position. He can at least potentially be developed there, instead of using an undersized PF at the C position.

 

The thing about Jermaine is that he's too used to being a skill-based player who relies on athleticism to make plays, and is now expected to do more dirty work down low. This is part of the problem with the Heat's inconsistency as a whole. They need a center who hustles on the boards game in and game out, and not just when he feels like it. He'll be a guy the Heat will need to replace come 2010, because he won't get those iso's that he's so used to throughout his career once the Heat grab an all star to pair with Wade.

 

 

Anyway, despite your perspective on the team, I think the Heat truly have enough in their roster to possibly reach the 3rd seed and finish at the top of their division. I know I sound like a broken record of a homer blindly overrating his favorite team. With the Heat, it's all about bringing consistent effort, and I'm mainly looking at Q-Rich, Beasley, and O'Neal. When this team is blowing out a team one game, getting blown out the next, and then blowing out teams two times straight.. I know the talent level isn't the case for their record being subpar to what I expected. It's that addition of an all star talent next year that will push them even further and over the top.

 

This Wednesday night, barring something unforseen, I'll be watching the Heat closely in their game vs. Boston to see what they're all about. I'll give you a heads up after I write the article (either real early morning on Thursday or real late Thursday night (School starts back for me on Thursday), and I'll try to address some of the questions with in-game examples if possible.

[JWaLL]

It's working for me. Is anyone else having the same problem?

Strange, must be a computer problem. Could you post the one for the Wizards? I'm sure we're in the bottom two or three haha, I'm just curious what the comments are.

[Poe]

This Wednesday night, barring something unforseen, I'll be watching the Heat closely in their game vs. Boston to see what they're all about. I'll give you a heads up after I write the article (either real early morning on Thursday or real late Thursday night (School starts back for me on Thursday), and I'll try to address some of the questions with in-game examples if possible.

Sounds great, man.

 

It should be a good game if the Heat start the first quarter strong like they've been doing recently.

[Poe]

Strange, must be a computer problem. Could you post the one for the Wizards? I'm sure we're in the bottom two or three haha, I'm just curious what the comments are.

I was going to post it for you earlier today when I saw you post in this topic, actually.. but it wasn't working for me at the time, either.

 

Well, now it does, strangely enough... so take a look:

 

25. (24) Washington Wizards (28.8 / 0.0%) [ 27 / 30 / 26 ]

Rankings: NET: 25; OFF: 23; DEF: 21; PACE: 11

 

The Wizards started their six-game homestand with wins over Sacramento and Portland, so you have to admire the chutzpah of a team that could have very easily thrown in the towel. One beneficiary of Gilbert Arenas' departure is DeShawn Stevenson, whose playing time has been sporadic this season. Stevenson still plays solid defense, but the shooting woes that sent him to the bench last season haven't abated. In fact, they've gotten worse. Stevenson's one-time proficiency from the three-point land made him a reasonable enough alternative as a low-usage defensive specialist. He's 9-of-46 from beyond the arc this season. With more playing time, perhaps Stevenson can regain his stroke. If he does, it will be at least one happy story for a team that sure seems to be sending out a lot more press releases regarding its players' community efforts lately.

[KurbyFX]

Wait what?! Darko is required to travel with the team? Wow. That's a low blow...

[Erick Blasco]

Sounds great, man.

 

It should be a good game if the Heat start the first quarter strong like they've been doing recently.

 

Small mistake---the Miami-Boston game will be next Wednesday not this Wednesday. So hold out about 10 more days!

[Erick Blasco]

I was going to post it for you earlier today when I saw you post in this topic, actually.. but it wasn't working for me at the time, either.

 

Well, now it does, strangely enough... so take a look:

 

 

 

Maybe they were updating the site? That would be my best guess. Just hold a few hours if one of the BP links is fried, they're usually pretty reliable.