Orlando's 3 Biggest Problems

[Erick Blasco]

1. A Banged-Up Jameer Nelson

 

Nelson's assist and usage rates are essentially the same at 2008-09. He's turning the ball over a bit more than he did last season, but fundamentally the difference has essentially boiled down to shooting. Using his performance the last three seasons, SCHOENE projected Nelson to shoot .501 on two-point attempts and .427 beyond the arc. Instead, he's at .448 and .364, respectively. To get a sense of the scale, had Nelson shot as well as projected, he would have scored 37 more points, adding 1.4 points per game to his total.

 

2. The Trigger-Happy Vince Carter

In 2008-09 in New Jersey, playing with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and a cast of role players, Carter used 27.0 percent of the Nets' possessions. Having traded in those teammates for three players who were All-Stars a year ago, the seemingly safe assumption was Carter would step into a smaller role. Instead, he's actually using possessions at a higher rate--27.5 percent. It's not as if Carter is shooting so well the Magic feels compelled to go to him time and again. His 49.8 True Shooting Percentage is the worst of his career and also the lowest among Orlando regulars.

 

Oddly, what is happening with Carter seems to be along the lines of what I feared with the other NBA Finalist. While Ron Artest has sacrificed scoring opportunities to fit in with the L.A. Lakers, Carter is forcing things. He's playing a much bigger role than predecessor Hedo Turkoglu, who used 23.1 percent of the Magic's possessions while on the floor, and Rashard Lewis has complained recently about his lost shot attempts. Other more efficient options, most notably Howard, are also suffering because of Carter's shoot-first mentality.

 

 

 

 

3. I Underrated Hedo Turkoglu

When Orlando let Turkoglu walk as a free agent, replacing him with Carter, I thought it was the right move. Now I'm not so sure, and not just because of the preceding paragraphs. Turkoglu has never rated particularly well by my numbers or most others. Both his per-minute win percentage and PER evaluated him as essentially an average player this season. But the success the Toronto offense has enjoyed since adding Turkoglu, ranking fourth in the league, has made me rethink his value.

 

What I'm starting to suspect is there is something about how Turkoglu helps an offense that is not picked up by his individual stats. Whether it is because of his versatility, or his ability to run the pick-and-roll, he makes his teammates more efficient without generating a ton of assists or scoring all that efficiently (or that often) himself.

 

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=879

[bigdog17k]

Can't agree more about the VC analysis.

[The Regime]

4. Dwight not getting enough shots attempts. He is averaging a little over 9 shots a game, not nearly enough for a guy who is considered by many as the best big man in the game.